Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Update...Models For 98L and Interaction Between Cat 4 Fiona and our Invest at 90% Red 98L- Busy Tropics Autumn Equinox Time

So let's talk models for Invest 98L as you can see above the GFS are on the left and the EURO is on the right.  Until the models begin to disagree it forms once it is deeper in the Carib as Fiona pulls away to the North for her next landfalls in Bermuda and then Canada. The flow from around Fiona's backside is inhibiting development for now .... of Invest 98L.  As the storm approaches the Yucatan Channel the GFS goes to the left (West) and the EURO pulls to the right (East) making a landfall on Western Cuba. From there the Euro continues to towards SW Florida quickly crossing Florida getting back into the Atlantic fairly quickly and then moving up through Georgia and the Carolinas bringing heavy rain.  The GFS on the left aims for the Yucatan, moves up into the Gulf of Mexico feasting off of the fuel of hot water and aims towards New Orleans but slides over towards a landfall closer to the Florida Panhandle/Alabama Line.  In truth the next model run may show something else totally. Until a closed center forms and we see the structure of the storm (vertically) and how fast it is actually moving and recon gets good data from the center of the storm it's all model discussion.   Warning us to pay attention in case we have to act to put our Hurricane Prep Plan in action.

The image above shows how huge Fiona is...
...when I say huge I mean her poocket not her core.
The white around the tight green core above.
It was raining today in Hispaniola... 
And if you connect the dots down to the South... find Invest 98L so far South there storms were over land.

This is the circular bubble that is 98L
Leeward Islands had rain with gusts in the 50 mph range.
This intense clustter flared up tonight over land.

Stay tuned.
Sorry I didn't update earlier.
I had a bad migraine... 
... I took my meds and rested.
Feeling much better tonight.
More tomorrow morning.
Keep reading if you have not...
Sweet Tropical Dreams, 

* * * 

Fiona East of Florida.
98L with 90% chance of forming in Caribbean.
New Yellow circle with 30% important.
First things first...

Cat 4 Fiona

There isn't much to say about Fiona other than she is a magnificent beauty from a satellite perspective and she is forecast to move up towards Bermuda and then Canada where she will continue her reign of disruption and destruction. Models are all in agreement on her track, however she has moved slower than expected and just seems to hang there East of South Florida looking back at the one peninusular of land that she did not manage to impact. Eastern Cuba felt a bit of Fiona and luckily not much more. And, yet there are more storms down the road that may take the road not traveled by Fiona. I spoke often on Twitter about the possibility that Fiona would stall out here or move exacerbatingly slow and she is doing so currently. 

The Atlantic Woke Up!
Red X known as Invest 98L is waiting to take the stage.
The star currently is Fiona.

A solid core of destructive winds.

From not so close up ....

Note the huge pocket of moisture.
Fiona ALWAYS had a huge pocket around it.
And once fully grown it grew into it.
Weaker younger Fiona below.
A solid core coming together but...
...note the huge pocket of moisture.
That was always it's signature.

Old image above.

I point this out because I wrote about this in detail in previous blogs that showed that though it was NOT Dorian, there were similarities. It traveled across the Atlantic always noticeable, but never really pulling it together until it did in a similar area and then up in the Bahamas it exploded as I expected it would. Dorian came to a dead stop after landfall for days over its landfall location. Fiona was fairly kind to Puerto Rico despite doing a Deja Vu trip on the power grid the way Maria did but not nearly as fierce. Fiona was way kinder than Maria, but Fiona has not been all that kind. Deadly but not as deadly, but far from really kind. My point is Fiona is potential realized.

98L  below is filled with expectations.
Great expectations meteorologically speaking.

98L may take that trip to Cuba and Florida.
But as good as the models are in agreement now.
It hasn't formed, it has no center.
Models are most reliable AFTER a center forms!
Remember that...
Yet, this morning it's squashed by dry air.

Hiding down by South America..
Waiting to take it's turn.
Trying to get into the Caribbean... it can begin.
Doing it's thing!
98L needs Fiona to start moving....
...for it to get going.
A mimic look below.
More on this ...this afternoon.

Now we have models for 98L
Curious on the Central Atlantic Wave tho...
...but 98L the dark area near Trinidad.
Models below.

So let's look at the bottom set of models first. Note how some of them go West towards Central America or aim at the Yucatan vs crossing Jamaica towards Cuba. Easy to focus on those few tracks that track this into the Gulf of Mexico, but until this forms all bets are off on what exactly it will do. Models provide a great guide but at this stage in development it is all about possibilities and perceptions and nothing more.

A reminder for you all to check your hurricane kits, brush off the dust and make a list of what you need and get out there and get it before the grocery stores are a gridlock of panicked shoppers at Publix!

There are plenty of other systoms out there to talk about, but they are not forecast to make landfall or become players in the popular ten day period so I will talk on them later today. Know the tropics are alive as they usually are in September, on the edge of the Autumn Equinox and as long time readers of this blog know back in the day there wasn't an official "Hurricane Season" but hurricanes were known in old history records as Equinox Storms as they always seemed to appear somewhere around that Equinox and farmers and sailors looked wearily to the skies to see early signs of these fierce storms on the horizon. 

Fast forward to 2022 when the NHC puts out a Cone five days ahead and watches areas of possibilities down near South America and a legion of meteorologists work hard to warn farmers, sailors and school teachers of fierce hurricanes that could come their way.  Fierce Fiona is moving towards Bermuda and Canada, the Cone takes it far away from the East Coast that will feel it's force as waves and swells move towards our shore and nothing more.

This area that looks fairly closed off...
..far out there is a Yellow Circle with 30% Chances.
There's more to look at than just 98L all dressed in red.


I'll update later today.
Thanks for reading.
Thanks for sharing on Twitter and Instagram 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever.

Ps... Fiona is an old fashioned monster crashing into islands in the stream of the atmosphere. 
We definitely have something going on later this week in the Caribbean, but which islands will be in the stream of the atmosphere and what does Mother Nature have in store for us? The signs are there but we do not yet have a system with a center, just models offering possible solutions.


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