Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, August 22, 2021

Updated 11 AM - Where Does Henri Make Landfall? He's an Unwanted Guest Staying Too Long. Wind Profile Small but Rain Profile LARGE Across a Wide Area for a Copule of Days. NYC NY CT Rl MA ME NH VT Flooding Concerns


Passing close to Block Island... 
... NHC has it heading at 335 degrees.
NNW ish
Currently 50 Miles S of Providence Rhode lsland 

This is the wind profile on Windy of Henri.
There are multiple ways to look at this Tropical Storm.
The wind in this case is very localized.
But unlike most storms this one is hooking in...
...vs out to sea as most of them do.
Henri is exceptionally unique.
Not intense pacing 100 MPH winds.
But it is a slow motion disasters. 
Forecast to move very slowly and sit and dump rain.
Flooding rains for a "couple of days"
It will be "gone by Tuesday" 
And much of that rain moves inland and to the West.

Above is the radar presentatin.

The bright orange near the tip of Long lsland is intense rain and wind carrying strong Tropical Storm gusts but the green and yellow swath is to the LEFT over New York City and up into Massachusetts and Connecticut. The torrential tropical rains will continue over an already saturated ground over a wide area and it will persist for several days. The rain could spread up into "Upstate New York" across Monsey and into the Catskills and Hudson Valley. New Hampshire and Vermont far to the North inland will deal with Henri. Unlike many storms that clip the tip of Long lsland and slide past Cape Cod this miserable storm will not go away quickly and the flooding will be mind boggling while the wind profile will be meek. That said large hardwood trees in saturated soil tip over when you have sustained winds of 25 MPH and gusts of Tropical Storm force and not talking "landfall" but in Brooklyn and Queens and New Haven and the list goes long and deep inland.  So while Rhode Island may get bragging rights to "landfall" (if it stays on the current track and it seems to want to move more to the left currently) the real story will be the wide spread damages across a very wide area. 

This is his own neck of the woods.
He knows this area best!
Though good with all weather ...
...tropical or otherwise!

Speaking of experts!
Below is advice from a past director of the NHC.

This excellent tweet is by one of the most knowledgable people on the subject of hurricanes because before he left his good government job he ran the National Hurricane Center. He was a careful and cautious leader who made wise decisions and worked hard on the best way to convey them. He is still doing that these days at TWC and online trying to inform people of the dangers of the storm.

Note the wording as he is always careful with his words:  "for a couple of days" 

Wind profile. (very few oranges nor reds)
Weak wind event but saturated soil creates havoc.

Rain is concentrated WEST of the center.
Right of the center is fairly empty/dry
Rain profile and the rain is everywhere.
For a couple of days.
Gusty winds in squalls will bring down trees.
Trees wreck cars and anyone near the tree.
Trees knock out power.

There are many moving parts to this tragedy.

There is much to talk about in the tropics. There is an area of yellow in the Atlantic but not threatening anything. There are strong waves swimming off Africa. MJO gets a vote also.  But today the message is what it was on Friday. This is a dangerous weather event and it has many moving parts and can impact anyone in the area where it's rain is dumping rain for a couple of days and there are some gusty winds that further create problems as it brings trees down.

Yes I love Barry Manilow ...who doesn't? Okay someone somewhere BUT the forecast for NYC was complete with Flash Flood Warnings and a Tropical Storm Warning and the concert should have been cancelled in advance so that people would not be stranded with subways and bridges closed. Makes no sense. YES we all want to move on but there was a hurricane and this is the SECOND tropical storm in a month as Elsa caused flooding in subways a month ago so that should have been fresh in the mind of people thinking of going out last night to a concert or show of any kind. Even my daughters stayed home and that's really rare - like it takes a hurricane nearby with flash flooding to make them think twice. 

I'll update later after landfall and with regard to the rain that will go on for a couple of days as it is not forecast to leave until Tuesday. Seems Henri is a long term unwanted visitor!

Oh and when I go on and on and on about Upper Level Lows ...this is WHY because Henri is now running around with the Upper Level Low that helped create this complex mess and remnants from the front that pulled him North. And that is why ULLs are important to watch!!

Sweet Tropical Dreams
@bobbistorm on Twitter and lnstagram.

Ps keep phones plugged in and fully charged and watch a movie or a concert... pace yourself if you live in that area as this is going to go on for a couple of days.


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