Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, September 17, 2020

Teddy Not Standing Alone Anymore TD22 Forms in BOC ... NHC Watching Invests in the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico - Sally Remnants Cause Flooding and Tornadoes in Carolinas.

As expected as it was at 90%

While this map is in agreement with many models.
It's also worth knowing the EURO disagrees.
Time will tell...stay tune.

After flirting with the TEXMEX coastline.. pulls away & takes off for Louisiana. 

Something to remember...
...also models bobble with Teddy possibilities.
But most insist on it not impacting NE.
One of those keep watching dramas.

Rest of the blog was from around 6 PM.
Thanks for reading, just updated 90L to TD22
Forecast to be Wilfred


Tropical Atlantic on Thursday.
Teddy owns the Atlantic
140 MPH - Cat 4
Going to break it down below..

I'm going to show the Atlantic in parts as currently we have two distinct zones in the Atlantic, being the area far out to the East filled with African Waves doing the same dance and the area closer in filling up our landfall totals with pop up, homegrown problems that no matter why and how they pop up they all seem to cause trouble for those living along the towns that line the Gulf of Mexico, so far eeryone has gotten a taste of tropical weather this year; some places got much more than a taste and they are still trying to put the pieces of their lives together. But first some models, then discussion regarding Teddy packing 140 MPH winds far out at sea taking up a good part of the Atlantic and then general discussion.  For a shorter read, check out the blog from this morning that covered the basin and truly nothing much has changed since then other than Teddy getting stronger. But, people have asked on Twitter and elsewhere what I think on this wave or 98L or what is happening in the Gulf of Mexico so this blog is to delve deeper than I did at 9 AM this morning. 

Obviously Major Hurricane Teddy stands out.

Sally remnants in the Carolinas. GOM trouble?

Actually Teddy is the only game in town officially.
Lots of Xs, Os and remnants but NHC just doing Teddy.

The Atlantic has Teddy and small weaker systems.

Category 4 as of 5 PM 140 MPH Winds.
Let's keep Teddy out at sea... far from land.

Huge envelope. Intense Major Hurricane.

So where we are discussing models and our tropical entities that range from Invests close in to Invests far away both looking to get the name Wilfred before we move onto the Greek Alphabet. Teddy is huge and looks terrifying, but Teddy may be kind and stay out to sea; main concerns being Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. The GOM is a rich fertile water this year for tropical trouble and the beat only goes on and on as one Invest after another tries to develop there before aiming towards landfall. Again I wrote a shorter blog you can refer to earlier today if you aren't in the mood for a long read. 

First let's look at the models on one page as seen from Spaghetti Models site where Mike puts them in nicely organized graphics for easy reviewing the whole tropical scene. I'm very proud to be part of his page and I'm definitely a fan of his as I have watched him evolve over a long time into an incredible source of information to many concerned people who having lived along the hurricane coast have been dealt a bad hand at some time and know first hand the horrible aftermath of a landfalling hurricane and want the mos reliable information they can get before hand to properly prepare for any tropical weather that might come their way. 

Invest 90L at 90 % Red ready to go.
Close in tropical drama.
Heartbreaking if it hits a place still cleaning up.. let's hope it wobbles around and dosen't intensify.

Teddy, a Major Hurricane...
...seems to terrify a lot of people..
I get it as many do not trust the models.
Currently Teddy is so far away....
...and hopefully stays far away.
At some point models may flip flop on this...
...but generally they flip flop back to this solution.

Invest 98L has low expectations.
Out in the Atlantic, if it forms... stays out there somewhere.
For now that's the forecast.

Model discusison below.

The GFS takes Invest 90L and moves it inland and then another low shows up and takes it into Texas, then a smaller little low forms and slides into Mexico. (yes it shows that I could not make that up.) Meanwhile the GFS shows Teddy missing the Islands but kicking up the surf and remember Teddy is the size of Goliath while 90L is there but if it becomes Wilfred the GFS doesn't expect much. Teddy aims at the Canadian Maritimes but pulls away fast after scaring the coastline up near Maine and another small system forms closer in near the Islands but follows off after Teddy. Then according to the GFS....the Atlantic is eerily quiet and a cold front descends about the East and the South where people exhausted from summer cheer so loud it scares Mother Nature. Hopefully, it doesn't wake up her tropical division as it stays quiet for a while in the Atlantic. A frame from the GFS is below.

This image is mostly to show you how large Teddy is...
... how small the GFS sees the GOM system.
It's a model, it's not carved in stone.
It's Thursday's suggestion..

The EURO shows Wilfred doing Texas...
..and the next day it slides into Louisiana.
And TEDDY goes to see Stephen King.
Perhaps its hopes a 1990s Disaster Movie deal?
Again the Atlantic remains relatively quiet.

The ICON you need to see for yourself.

The ICON literally loops Teddy & 90L (Wilfred?)
off shore of Texas and Maine for days.
Just looping, sailing, hanging out.
Hard to see that verify but who knows.
It's a model.

Then there is the NAM
A close in short term model.
Shows Wilfred in the GOM... 


And in Europe.... near Greece.
There is a cyclone of sorts.
Happens once in a while.

So that's the story in the tropical world.
Don't belive the hype you read online...
..especially regarding Teddy.
Watch the models and how they trend.
Not how they flip or do a Texas two step.
Give money to reliable charities for those in need.
And know that while the Atlantic goes quiet...
... there is a strong wave off of Africa.
It needs some time and space between it and Teddy..
...but it's an impressive wave.

The Caribbean is the place to watch down the road.
And what happens in the Caribbean becomes a problem.
As September moves into October...
.....Teddy like large storms can form in the deep Caribbean.
By then we will be in the Greek Alphabet.
As we have run out of names once Wilfred forms.
Again the GOM is at 90% current ready fo be Wilfred.
Well in theory, Sally surprised many by being in the GOM.
I believed in Sally days before a circle appeared.
The flow, the moisture and the pattern called for development.
Models jumped on it eventually.

Close in often happens in years such as 2020.
So relax for now, give charity and keep watching.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
 Ps Again... the Caribbean becomes a concern soon.
Again sorry for any typos.
On a new medicine, let's hope it helps.
Either way summer gives it up to Fall.
And this coming week I have cool temps.
Winter is inevitable, but down the road.
A road that Captain Climo knows well......


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