Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, September 09, 2018

UPDATED! HURRICANE Florence Sunday Morning ... Going to Carolina? In the 5 Day Cone. Models Hint at a Stall Over NC? Models Change. PREPARE... BEWARE... Keep watching as things change often.

5 PM

Prime time in the tropics today.
So much to say but sticking with Florence now.

Discussion from NHC ... 

Not much I can add here.

The truth is the new data will go into the next model run and this goes on and on and on. In the end much comes down to Florence not the models, the models react the Florence. The models can say she will be a Cat 4 Hurricane at such and such a place and that may happen indeed or slight variations to track and intensity may change and what you have to do is react in real time and either prepare as if you are getting one of the worst historic hurricanes of your life and hope the intensity forecasts do not verify and she moves faster vs stalling near your town. Get out of her way or hunker down, plain and simple and if your town was not in the cone but near the cone and ends up in the cone .... get into action and hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I don't mean to sound scary here but the scenario as outlines by the current models Sunday evening would put a strong WIND event way into interior South Carolina and North Carolina in places not used to Category 2 hurricane force winds. NC is used to flooding inland in Eastern North Carolina but trust me I live in Raleigh and NO ONE is prepared and most are in denial that it could actually come inland like Fran or Hazel. Those were generational hurricanes... older people remember Hazel, younger people wax poetic on Fran and the new people who moved here for good tech jobs are clueless what real inland hurricane can do. I hope that it moves away, does the normal curve out to sea and clipping the Outer Banks ...stalls, loops and then continues on far away but we can't rely on that as things stand now Sunday evening.

I'll be off line until Tuesday evening after sunset. Being connected to Chabad and as we say "Modern Orthodox" we don't do business or go online during certain Jewish Holidays such as Rosh Hashonna, Passover and a few others. I have a weather radio on quietly in another room so I could check if I want and neighbors who are not Modern Orthodox who keep their large televisions on and are often glued to TWC so I'm not going to be surprised by anything and nothing is expected to happen until next week. 

As always check with the NHC and and if you follow me on Twitter please follow some of the people I am close with who I trust such as the people below not only are they good but they are in the Carolinas.

Great APP. Get it.. you will love it. always entertaining but usually on the money ... 

And often Cranky but excellent weather discussion:

and as always will direct you to the truth.
And to the NHC that's at the top of his page.

Many others.... follow who I follow and you can't go wrong from young guys like Allan or old pros like Jim Williams at Hurricane City they will always give you the best advice. I'll be back Tuesday night... cause hurricanes and the Jewish High Holidays always go together like apples and honey. will explain that and what we do on the Jewish New Year. I'll be praying that Florence finds a way out of the dangerous track she seems to be taking and that people don't lose their life and property in this dangerous storm. My thoughts are below.

In truth nothing much has changed.

Models are beginning to agree on location.
They have differences but they are close.
And both see a dangerous stall and slow movement.

The 3 states of NC, SC and VA are in the cross hairs.

Please act accordingly if you are in those three states.
Up the coast keep your eye on Florence.
And the best map from the NRL
Anywhere in that shaded area.... Florence carefully!

Next update Tuesday evening.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter
Wishing you all a sweet, healthy year..
..and stay safe from the storm.

11 AM

Note currently we have a Cat 2 inland NC on this cone.

Note discussion below.
Major Hurricane just offshore.

Impressive looking today.

Will update in depth later this afternoon.

If you are inside this area from Jax to NJ...
Please pay close attention to this hurricane.

If you live inside this cone...
Take action now this Sunday.
Make plans ....use the day if you are off.
If you know someone who doesn't have $$$...
...and can't prepare try to help them.
Watch the NHC and their updates.

Tallahassee finally out of wind probs.
Jacksonville still there..
Wind probs are moving up the coast...
...all the way to NY area.

The yellow ridge is below... 
...above Florence is going to steer her towards land.
Will she make landfall?
Currently the NHC shows that.

Compare and contrast this info...
...with the 5 AM package shown below.
My thoughts are still the same

* * * * *

Compare this with below.

5 AM Cone:

I show the advisory so at 11 AM can compare for yourself it to the 5 AM

The devil is often in the details.
Let's look at the details in discussion.


5 AM Discussion:

Salient points as I see them... the whole discussion yourself please.

Expectations for Florence to regain Major Hurricane status.
Close to shore... as in almost home grown.
The warm pool of water off shore..
..the lack of strong shear.
Time will tell.

That would be Fran like for NC.
We can talk on that later today.

NRL map.
Compare to Wind Probs you see how this works.

The Navy looks out for it's ships and their crews.
This shows an inland threat.
Wilmington gets hit often...
...rarely do the storms go inland.
Small bend to the N more at the end there.
But will the hurricane slow down?
This is a big concern many models hint at...

Wind Probabilities. 

5 AM
Annapolis Maryland to Jacksonville Florida have even odds of seeing Tropical Storm winds. Raleigh and Greensnboro NC inland have the same odds. 

Compare to the 11 AM out soon.

Florence building her CDO.
Could be a hurricane at 11 AM.

That's a hard image to ignore.
A hurricane doesn't need to have an eye.
They have an eye when they are stronger than 75 MPH
Look at that structure.

Models and Maps here on Spaghetti Models.

That's Major Hurricane Status.
Some models take it to Cat 4/5

Let's look at the EURO
The EURO shows a worst case scenario.
You think he's King?
Why do we think he's a King?
Not a Queen?
Just asking....

Every model run changes....
...remember that.
This is still several days away.
We have no watches nor warnings up.
Just watching models that hopefully change.

Models from 00z
you can compare to newest ones... they come out.
Leaving this up here.
Check out the time stamps.
First one Saturday Sept 15.
Last one Tuesday 18.
Is a Harvey like set up possible?
Anything is possible... weak steering currents.
Unlikely yes.
Possible yes.


Another similar scenario as the models begin to come together in a stunning way. That could change.

Rain forecast shows heavy rain coming...

Some thoughts online worth listening to..

2 NC Weather People worth listening to...

Took me long enough...
...but I do love it here in ways.
Is Florence Carolina bound?
Seems like... 

Models from the last big model run.

The EURO I waited up for....
Note position of Isaac.
Graphics from Tropical Tidbits.

Collage of models.
This too will change a bit.

Why you ask does it look like a landfall?

Florence is under the ridge.
Plain and simple.

How strong the ridge is...
... timing on her forward movement.
Is there any chance the front is stronger?
If the front is stronger it can help grab Florence.
Other wise Florence flounders around NC.
F storms and North Carolina.
Fran, Floyd.
Will Florence be added to that list?

To understand the process of long term forecasting you have to understand there are short term factors and long term factors. A good loop is the official 7 day loop shown here below:

It changes in real time as weather changes. Saturday night it shows me there is a front moving down towards me. This is how the average person might look at this set up... not a seasoned pro though a seasoned pro would definitely go "oh that's not good"

Wow a lot of rain ...
(not good with an off shore hurricane)
But "yay a cold front" it could push it away.

Oh wait where did the front go.
Carolina... where cold fronts go to die.
That's the Carolina Weather Group motto.
Oh wait there's Florence...

Shame that front didn't stick out and grab her
Florence looks to make landfall.

Okay... I probably lost power.
Florence is sitting over my house.
Stupid front had to die... no words.

Um how long is Florence going to stay for a visit?

Now where did she go?

That would logically be how ...
..anyone in Raleigh would view that loop.

Good news is... the loop updates.
So like the models we keep watching the new loop.
The new model, the new run.
At some point we know how it's going to go.

Until then we are in watch and wait mode.
No watches or warnings up
Keep watching.

Some weather history thoughts and links. Please see the previous blog as it is filled with lots of analog hurricane history including an explanation of how Napoleon made the world's biggest mistake... ignoring the climate and weather history of Russia. If he only had Google..

I spent Saturday rereading old great books.

I want to bring up a few things I did last night and I am putting them into this blog again as they are important to learn about. Weather affects everything and mostly over time it has impacted war, politics and the search for better boarders or large kingdoms. Whether we are talking about Napoleon trying to take Moscow and learning too late that winter in Russia is not for visitors from the South of the France. The Revolutionary War had severe winters and dangerous hurricanes that helped the Revolutionaries more than it did the British Troops that had to get supplies from back home on the other side of the ocean. In World War II there were major problems with typhoons in the Pacific which led to a study of how hurricanes worked that led to Hurricane Recon and better storm tracking as well as severe hurricanes off the East Coast barely written about in the press for fear the Germans and their U Boats would get information that might help them.

Russia wants a warm water port always, that's why Putin likes the Crimea. England is a small island in the Northern Atlantic without much of a growing season and short on resources so they wanted to colonize the world (or as much of it as they could get) and reap it's rewards. The Spanish sailed the 7 Seas and many of their galleons with gold went down in hurricanes. Weather, be it winter storms or severe hurricanes have changed the course of history over time, time and time again. Now days we know they are coming and we can prepare and yet we cannot stop the forces of nature that are part of the movement of air around the globe as hurricanes help circulate the air from the equator to the poles and that's a good thing unless some town is in their way. For all the discussion on North Carolina moving their capital to Raleigh to protect the whole state and secure it's Western border it most likely was because the very beautiful old capital of New Bern was hit several times in a short period of time destroying Tryon Palace and swamping the streets of New Bern with flooding and shortly around that time they moved the capital to Raleigh.

So here are some links.

1775 Hurricane and North Carolina and much of the East Coast..."es-North-Carolina-Hairr/dp/1596293918
Must read book for people interested in the history of old NC hurricanes and the 1775 Cane.

Napoleon and Russia.
(If he had only stopped with his winnings before pushing his luck...)
1812 War ...



At 7:43 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Thank you Bobbi for all that you do. I will be praying for you and all the residents of the southeast. Best regards, Michael

At 11:36 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Thanks for all you do!!! I really enjoy your posts!! I love weather and history and family and God!!!!!! You always have interesting post!! Thanks!!


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