Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, September 08, 2018

UPDATED .....FLORENCE.... SC NC VA State of Emergency. Take It Seriously. Sunday is Preparation Time.. Helene Isaac... Historical Analogs.

11 PM Update.
Cone smaller now.
That could change.
SC/NC line is logical for now ..
..if you are looking at middle of the cone.
Easy to say don't do that...
...but we all do that.
Connect the dots you know.

Discussion from the NHC

Always good to read discussion.
Don't just look at the pictures (cone)
The discussion helps you understand the whole set up.
Note it's trapped within a "very light steering current"
On one hand it's trapped sliding West slowly.
It's moving slowly... because:
"very light steering current"

Here is the link.
Please use it.

This is straight from the source not your Cousin Joe or your favorite blogger or Tweeter or person who gives you great Paleo recipes on Instagram. This is the bottom line. Below is the link to wind probabilities. When Tallahassee has no wind probs it's a good sign they believe it will take the more Northern track and some city up to the North will be added to the wind probs. Or if it is expected to go further inland you will see cities further inland there. It's a good tool to use to see trends and concerns and where the NHC is still watching an area even though the cone is not moved directly in that direction. I'll give my mother credit for this trick. I studied much meteorology and geography as it related to my degree in International Relations as weather affects every political problem and war over history; almost every war had some weather related problem so you need to understand Climate and Weather and how it affects politics. If you don't believe me ask the ghost of Napoleon. 

A battle for Florida was affected by a Hurricane near North Florida.

Enough of history for now but again you learn from history or you are doomed to repeat it. Knowledge is power. Now on to the wind probs......

Note at 11 PM equal wind probabilities exist for Richmond VA to Fayetteville and Raleigh. That may change. This is at 11 PM Saturday Night.

And the Bottom Line...

Note currently wind warnings go to W VA

More numbing is this graphic.

Are busy yet?
Can we put the myth of cool water in July killing the 2018 Season?
July is usually too early.
That's why we say "Remember September"

Moving on to an Update on Isaac.
West bound much like Florence.

Note the discussion below.

My bottom line on Isaac is..
..the short term is very set in stone.
The long term is not set in stone.
Stay tuned.

Lastly a good map from the Canadian Hurricane Center.

Meteorologists really working for their money.

What am I worried on?

1.  Florence has not yet made her move. She's almost floating West...
2.  Florence as of 11 PM is not a Hurricane yet, so close but yet so far.
3.  The steering currents are extremely light...that's why she isn't moving fast.
4.  Slow moving hurricanes often have the ability to reorganize.
5.  Hurricanes are not great multitaskers they slow to turn or to organize often.
6.  Florence has been hard to forecast from the beginning both intensity and track.
7.  Isaac has many options down the road it needs to be monitored.
8.  Will Helene really die out in the Atlantic swimming North?
9.  What's with that yellow circle up by the Azores. Hmmm did you know it was there?
10. Don't be in denial that Florence won't make landfall and go inland. 

People in NC are used to scary cones and then suddenly the hurricane pulls North and either hits Wilmington or slides by the Outer Banks and everyone goes back to talking about the Big Ones Fran and Hazel and life goes on inland. Storms have ripped tress out by their roots up near Winston Salem and in Charlotte far form the coast. They have moved NW towards NC and then NNW and then moved up into VA and affected the whole coast line all the way to Canada. Anything is possible don't believe the hype that this storm is unprecedented it is unusual but not that rare. Many storms formed off the coast of NC and the track going back to Africa is not known before satellite imagery. If a ship reported it we know about it, if the ship went down to the bottom of the ocean no one learned the details. 

That's how I spent my day... 
Rereading books I read often during the season.

If you are in the cone prepare.
Don't go overboard but prepare.
There are more storms where these came from..
Another big wave is about to move off Africa.
Tho... a big burst of SAL is due to come off too.
Yep.. late season SAL.

That means more waves that may make it further West.
And then develop closer in.

Navy map.
Note Navy is moving ships out of Norfolk.
They are taking it seriously ... are you?

Stay tuned.

Below is discussion from around 9 PM
It has much relevant info so please continue reading.

* * *

Everyone's got a name now...

Well except for the yellow invest.

 Models and graphics from Spaghetti Models.

First Florence.
Center stage.
Biggest immediate concern.

State of Emergencies in all 3 big states.
South Carolina
North Carolina

The cone to watch now.
Because preparations need to be taken.
If this continues to play out this way.


Wind Probs High for Many Cities

Look for yourself.
You get the idea.

I'm keeping this short and I will update later at the top of the page tonight. The reality is a strong tropical storm that is forecast to be a strong major hurricane again is forecast to slam into the Carolinas with a possible turn more to the North threatening Virginia... you have to prepare if you live in those areas. Down the road this storm could go inland, stall, loop around -- do weird things while knocking out power, flooding areas prone to flooding and killing people in those 3 states. We can talk on later later. I said "forecast" twice as currently this is a FORECAST but it's what we are going with and it would be irresponsible of me or anyone to tell you other wise. There is always some chance it does something else, but we are lucky enough to have the NHC and have early warning so take that warning and run with it like you are at a goal line stand and you smell a touchdown and give it all you got. You may get lucky and score a less strong storm at landfall and not have as much damage. Prepare for the worst, pray for the best and do what you got to do. Historically there are analogs. Don't let anyone tell you a storm coming in from that angle in September won't make landfall. Back before satellite imagery many showed up as forming just off the coast and making landfall, but do we really know where they formed originally? 

Treat this storm as any storm that is now off shore, moving W and eventually probably WNW towards a landfall. And also a storm forecast to be a strong major hurricane off shore while it traverses the extremely hot pond of water that we have been talking about all year being a magnet for a Major Hurricane close in affecting the Carolinas up to the Mid Atlantic and possibly New England. I'll update later in real time.

All similar time of year.
All similar angle.
Few have come in from the East.
But these are as close as I can get.

A lower hit than expected.
But throwing it in.

It's rare for a storm go come in that angle..
..go that far inland.

Your slam and scrape and burn the E Coast set up.

This is that scary run the GFS and EURO..
..took turns showing.
And many hurricanes have done this.
Plowed into NC, near SC...
...went inland then...
...VA then up the coast.
Could happen.
Depends on timing.

Similar track ... we know where it started.
Before satellite imagery?

A tropical Storm... a similar track..
..if it went inland which is rare.

1958 Helene
I know same list.

Is there an escape plan here for Florence? The analog storm would be Helene in 1958 that came dangerously close the coast and turned just off shore. This was shortly after Hazel so you can imagine another H storm along that coastline must have shaken up the locals badly. Note Helene organized by the CV Islands, stayed North of the Islands (though at a lower place) but ends up near where Florence may be when she aims at SC and NC. This CANNOT be relied on and most likely will not happen but it's the best analog I can find of a hurricane that pulled out and away at the last moment.

Fast forward to Helene 2018
60 years later.

Helene is forecast to affect the CV Islands.
It is expected to stay out to sea.
So was Florence.
For now just know it's there.
Time will tell.

Next is Isaac.
A storm with a cone going through the Islands.

There are wind probs up.
Where does it go in the long term is the problem.
Short term into the islands.
Long term... could be a problem.
Much depends on FLO.

Chow for now..
I'll update after the 11 PM.
And obviously in the morning.

If you are in NC SC or VA... prepare.
Fix your plan, make a list.
Get ready to go into action.

If you live in GA or UP THE COAST.
Watch Florence closely.


This is really a case of going slow, going slow then intensifying and moving very fast towards shore so don't be lulled into a false sense of reality time wise. Florence could intensify fast, she could move fast suddenly and she could surprise us. I lean on the surprising us side. It would be easy for me to say most likely it will come close, clip Eastern NC and slide up the coast or out to sea but I cannot say that and I have to take it seriously. I live in NC and I know the history of those rare storms that went further inland and did not miraculously make a loop out to sea like Helene in 1958 did shown above. I know from survivors of Fran and Hazel before that ...that sometimes hurricanes go far inland as Hugo did after hitting South Carolina from a similar angle.

Just do what you got to do. More later.

Ps... It's not easy for a Governor to make that call they do it out of an abundance of caution. 
Once a hotel fell into the ocean in Beaufort with many State officials who were there for a Ball and meeting running for their lives in their pajamas before the beautiful hotel came crashing down.


At 8:10 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Please don't forget to duck Bobbi--looks like (9/10:1100hrs) Raleigh-Durham will be in the worst quad of Flo's inland path.

At 10:44 AM, Anonymous OV JORDIE said... safe! Where are ya?!!? Need your comments here in Norfolk, Va. Ocean View


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