Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, June 23, 2017

Cindy's Aftermath.Flooding, Tornadoes. Moving E and NE. EPAC Busier, Atlantic Takes a Short Break For You to Prepare for Hurricane Season. Hurricane History Miami, Tampa Due for a Real Direct Hit. Forecasting in 2017 vs 1917. Who Am I?

A look at Cindy's remnants in motion.

The exact location of Cindy's "center" above.
New Madrid area actually...
...sorry how my mind works.

As usual forecasting the worst weather in the weather mass formerly known as "messy Cindy" has not been easy for the NWS. They have erred on the side of caution with flood watches and warnings with some mention here and there for possible tornadoes and severe weather. Yesterday, out of nowhere and far from the "center" of Ex Cindy a tornado danced over Metro Atlanta. Not far away in Northern Alabama a tornado decided to visit a liquor store. Apparently it was picky as only some aisles saw debris while other aisles still had the bottles stacked as if nothing had happened.

This really does happen.
No walls left standing.
But some of the bottles upright as if a Twister wasn't just there....

Fairfield Alabama now on the map thanks to Cindy.

Pointing out two things here.
Above note the interior room structure remains..
Note the Mtns or high hills off in the distance.

There has been much discussion here as well as elsewhere as to the effect of topography and how it makes a bad situation worse if it's in the path of the remnants of a tropical cyclone in search of a frontal boundary. The issue of elevation intensifies the weather leading to possible flooding problems if rainfall is high or small random twisters starts to spin. And, the reason they tell you to go to an interior room in a tornado is you have a better chance of surviving.

After Hurricane Andrew people noticed similar patterns of wind flow that left some houses on a block barely touched while homes on the corners often were torn apart. A friend in Kendall had just bought a new bedroom set for her baby daughter. The wind entered the room and tore at things a bit, but nothing was broken. However the new furniture was scratched up by things unseen hitting it at high velocities. It then whooshed through the hallway into the next bedroom tossing everything about. The photos on the wall in the hallway were not even at an angle, as if nothing had happened. She and the baby spent the night of Andrew in a bedroom closet praying they would all survive. Her husband stayed outside with his back to the closet door hoping it would hold tight. The family photos just hung perfectly all through the hall where wind raced on it's way to destroying the back bedroom. Happens.

So Cindy is inland and her weather mass is moving North and East bringing potential problems with it and the NWS is doing a great job of warning everyone in it's path. Those watches and warnings along the Ohio Valley and the SE will move East over time so check in often with your best local source for weather news. is the link for the NWS. Just enter your zipcode and I'm sure you know your zipcode so just do it if you live East of those warnings above as this whole mess moves East and North. Weather in Kentucky may get dicey later today! This is not just your every day cold front or summer weather moving through. And please make it move through faster as it's way too hot and humid in Raleigh today.

As for the rest of the tropics.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The Epac has an Invest.
As usual the Epac screams "my turn, my turn!!" 
... after an Atlantic storm dies out in June.
They seem to take turns sometimes.
There's a real scientific reason for it but ...
...let's just say energy moves about.

In the Atlantic you can see the curvature of a tropical wave.

Waves will be departing Africa that are more viable in a week or so.

Nothing is currently being shown by the models.
But models update often and so should you.
Always stay on top of the weather.

The tornado that formed over Atlanta...
..had no Tornado Watch.
See the map from yesterday below.

When the tornado was spotted...
..NWS put a Tornado Warning up immediately. 

Weather can happen like that...
Climate is always.
Weather can be like a one night stand...

As a writer I try to stay light here and explain the dynamics of tropical weather in a way that is easy for the lay person to understand. I don't tout my meteorological knowledge or education but let me say that it's extensive. From studying meteorology and geography in college to a point that it was obsessive to learning from people I have.. collaborated with online and in person while doing research at the NHC Library. And reading my whole life books on hurricane history that were then out of print and that are almost impossible to find today. I've been through numerous hurricanes, done storm chasing and been chased by a few too many hurricanes. Trust me it's way better to chase a hurricane than to be chased by one. Chasers move about with knowledge of both roads, weather conditions and other chasers. You cannot pick up a two story, 13 room home built four blocks from the Atlantic Ocean. You can do your best to protect it and you and pray the storm hooks to the right or left and leaves it in better shape than that ABC Liquor Store in Alabama. My house on Miami Beach in Hurricane Andrew was high and dry and in good shape. A block away a ladies roof took off and set sail in the wind landing in her neighbors back yard pool and the yard and partially on her house. 

As a writer I try to put this into a frame work you can understand rather than talking in academic language that if you understood you probably wouldn't be reading this blog. Or maybe you would as I have some friends in the world of academia who seem to enjoy reading my thoughts.

Bottom Line:

Weather can spin up fast and the NWS moves fast to stay on top of changes in real time to a forecast. Forecasters dealing with multiple models giving totally different solutions did the best they could and they did a very good job at the NHC with Tropical Storm Cindy. Kudos to the rule changes that allow for faster dissemination of information by way of watches and warnings before an actual center has shown itself. We can do that based on trust and reliance that we have now days in model forecasts for tropical development. We are lucky these days, in the old days people were not lucky they were caught without warnings often by Killer Hurricanes that suddenly swerved or made a turn where no ship could relay that information.

We have been extremely lucky the last few decades as some areas were hit over and over by dangerous hurricanes in the past that have not been hit in recent times. Key West has been lucky that the worse they have seen was Wilma or Georges as the 1919 Hurricane was a big blow and then it went on to slam into Texas as well a a very bad hurricanes in 1910. Read the text above a few times and try to picture it in your mind. And understand the weather service back then did the best it could to protect the people in the path of storms, but there wasn't much lead time when they were wrong. Now we can warn people with a Tropical Storm Warning before the tropical storm is done forming.

Tampa is so overdue for a Major Hurricane pushing up into Tampa Bay that it makes some wonder if they paid off the devil.

Lastly no matter how many times we say September Remember it's been a long time since downtown Miami and the beautiful adjacent city of Miami Beach was hit by a Category 4 Hurricane. The last record we have of wind speed was before the anemometer was blown off the a rooftop of a hotel on Miami Beach. We have been very lucky and at some point our luck may run out. Trust me I hope not but I'm realistic and so should you be. Andrew hit Homestead directly Miami only felt it's destructive energy.
Read it and look through the pictures.
Be #Hurricanestrong go on...

We used to forecast by the barometer.

There are a lot more buildings there now...
...for ships at sea to be tossed into!

Trust me on this there is so much information online. At Jim Williams has a list of cities and he shows the history for most cities in Hurricane country. Miami is shown below. You learn from history so you can prepared for the tomorrow when a hurricane is coming straight at your town. Trust me. I said Cindy would hit the Sabine River area between Texas and Louisiana when asked by friends on Twitter over and over days before it made landfall there. I made it clear Cindy might move a bit more to the west or east but in that general region. And, I said that when other meteorologists insisted it would hook left into Mexico or aim at the coast of NW Florida. I know hurricanes and I know weather and on any given day weather can change fast and the NWS does their best to change the forecast. You have the final responsibility to stay on top of the weather.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter.
Follow me on Twitter for faster news and updates!

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