Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Updated! Record Breaking Cat 5 Will Make Landfall in Mexico. Rain Trains into Texas, GOM & Far Inland. Stay tuned.

Will update when we have good morning visible.
Thankfully Hurricane Recon went in and confirmed 200 MPH winds!

Strongest recorded in the Basin (Atlantic or EPac)

Compare and contrast to the very strong El Nino 1997 Linda

Pressure drop reminiscent of Wilma... but deeper.

I'll be back in a bit with more information.
Waiting on updated models and better visible imagery.

She is very visible on our Water Vapor Loop

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

See the fire hose setting up for Houston or nearby parts of Texas

Moisture from a system making landfall somewhere else...
Shot out of a "fire hose" in the atmosphere..
Propelled towards an area that has been in a drought..
But this will be the final drought buster.
As happened in Charleston and South Carolina.
An area that was also having a drought..and then it wasn't.
Mother Nature working over time to balance out the atmosphere.

Compare and contrast Patricia 12 hours apart.

Note how deep her tail grew, sucking up tropical moisture.
That tropical moisture will come down as flash floods.
Extreme storm surge for low lying beach towns.
Tornado Force Sustained Winds.
Mud Slides.

In the Pacific I call this Dancing Hurricane.
Olaf and Patricia

sat_wv_west_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Newest Models.
Compare this track to the one below from last night.
Remember this is RARE for Mexico.
First Cat 5 Hurricane Making Landfall... 
The winds may die down...the rain goes on and on..

I love this graphic as it shows elevation.
Elevation is everything with Patricia.
How close you are to the water = storm surge
How steep the land is = mud slides + flash floods.

There are cities in the path of Patricia.
A beautiful video of Colima, Mexico.

So you can see where Patricia is headed..

Keep reading please..and remember rain from Patricia.. 
merges with other systems and impacts the US after Mexico.

Affecting areas in Texas that are already saturated...

Possible low forms in Gulf of Mexico.
I would not rule out it going tropical .. long shot but possible.

I'm giving the discussion from Larry Cosgrove as it's relevant.
Excellent. He has been on target with this situation from the start.

Keep reading....
We are so close to morning visible.

Last Night's image from around 12 hours ago.
See how in the image below for NOW.. 
...Patricia got stronger, larger, more intense.


As a rule I rarely cover Pacific Hurricanes.
Patricia breaks that rule for 3 reasons.
1. She is beautiful, stunning and intensifying still.
2. She is going to make landfall in Mexico.
3. Her moisture is forecast to move over the US.

New Track. Old track below the new one.

Last night below.. not very different a bit.

I drew an extrapolated track so you can see how this plays out.

Remember yesterday when I said note how the whole flow is SW to NE?

Texas and Louisiana are in line for massive rain.
Arkansas, Mississippi and then comes the question?

Does her energy get into the Gulf of Mexico and if so ??

NHC discussion answers that question.
Salient part of the discussion is below.

Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure
that forms over South Texas or the Northern GOM this weekend.

"Could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing"

The "or" here is the big question. 
A bit to the North over Texas or a bit to the South of GOM?

Let's go back and look at Patricia on the visible.

Home Grown may I add. 
I outlined the coastline for ya... 
Look at that pinwheel eye.

AVN Loop is stunning.

avn_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

That is about as perfect as it gets. 

I call this one 50 Shades of Patricia ;)

bd_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

There are more reasons but for now appreciate her beauty.
She is a a great storm to use to illustrate the different views sats provide.

Each satellite shows us something different.
But all of them show the same thing.

A hurricane on the verge of being a Category 5.
A hurricane that will cause flash floods and mudslides.

Reminds me in ways of Joaquin.
Fast intensification.

El Nino Storm or should I say storms.

Note on the Dvorak there is currently a strong storm... the GOM in her distant bands.

Wow, purple...

jsl_lalo-animated.gif (720×480)

So many incredible links to offer, loops to look at and yet it's a very real time process. Patricia is changing so rapidly before our eyes.

Please read the recent blog post as it relates to the way this will come together. Thanks.

Loop to keep below ;)

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter

Good song to watch loops...


Post a Comment

<< Home