Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, August 30, 2013

Going into Larbor Day.. No Hurricanes Anywhere in the Atlantic. Yellow Circles & Tropical Thoughts

Nothing has really changed. There is still a circle in the Central Atlantic with low chances of developing and a circle over a beach in Africa for a wave that might develop and turn NW rapidly and never reach our side of the world. Mind you if it makes it across the ocean and threatens the Carolinas it was the models that said it would be a fast recurving fish storm. I'm not taking any personal responsibility for a long range forecast for a wave that is not totally in the water yet. But...the set up would support that IF it comes off spinning and stays spinning.

I'm going to discuss the African Wave which is an Invest already and explain to you why it's possible it's got more problems than the forecast implies.

This particular satellite image is the best to show as it shows the round, concentric, white ball of what should be our next Tropical Depression. That is "should" in theory and my crazy friend I love told me never to say "should" so ... it's probably but not a for sure. The spotted clouds to it's immediate NW are DRY clouds and filled with lots of little reasons that this is not such a positive environment for Gabby to take her first steps. Note the red curving lines down to the SW would be her bands should be develop and again not that the only place for moisture is to her south. There are some dots on the in the white mass...but not a lot. This is not a solid "Go for lift off" here..

But, when a storm has those legs and that are more like a mermaids tail that help propel it across the ocean that could give it a moisture feed.. you don't want to count it out. Also, pressures are low enough for the NHC and NRL to run models on it.

The models make it a "Fish Storm" of the African kind vs the local kind. It doesn't have to get to a weakness in the ridge, it misses the ridge and turns before it ever sees it.

Now one thing I do want to mention is that the GFS now has it turning just before 50 and earlier models had it turning way before 45 so... always pay attention to the trend. Each model run gets this Low that is currently still over Africa further out into the ocean. Again, it's not as good an environment as earlier models would have you believe and that could account for the slower development and the further models being currently further to the left.

Now, the Central Atlantic Wave which is a real puzzle on some levels. This wave should (oops) be developing in late August in that area of the Atlantic. Between water temperatures and CLIMO and synoptics there is no real reason that it isn't stronger. It flares up, it falls apart and then it flares up again.

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This is the Canadian Model that everyone loves to bitch about...but always looks at it figuring it will spin up a hurricane if it can.  It develops it logically coming into the islands and strengthening and then moving towards a cold front to the NW and a weakness in the ridge that would most likely in other years show us a hurricane moving towards the Carolinas and then curving out by the Outer Banks out to sea. Yes, that was a long sentence..

It's also a long shot.

The GFS model which is the current darling of all the models does not show anything like that happening. May I remind the GFS that the AVN was once the darling and Prom Queen of all the forecasters and then the NOGAPS and well... another one is for sure waiting in the wings and we will laugh at the GFS one day.

What I find MORE interesting with the GFS is that around 120 hours it totally shrinks the High for no real apparent reason which makes me feel that something is off with that. And, it stays shrunken for a while which if we have real hurricanes would leave the door more open to a landfall on the East Coast ...except that there are no hurricanes anywhere.

So, I ask myself..."Is that normal or believable" and the response in my gut is "NO" but, then again things seem to be shifting. The Lows on the NW side can erode it, and maybe a strong hurricane from the SE can erode it there, but just seems a bit too overdone on the weakness of the high..or shifting of the High towards England...  Okay, exaggerating a little but watch the loop below.

If you look at the 7 Day NWS Loop you will see the cold front, though it's worth noting it sort of falls apart over South Florida. It's also worth noting it GETS to South Florida. Not normal for this time of year..

Now look at the 7  Day NWS Loop.

Note on Thursday, September 5th it shows a weak cold front sliding off of South Florida. IF a storm was to the South somewhere it would be a magnet to pull the storm to the north. Now think on this part. Here we are going into Labor Day Weekend and it's a BIGGER IF on the development of a hurricane than the development of another Cold Front which is a sure thing betting wise. Is that normal? No...

Go with the flow and what is happening now this particular year vs CLIMO I guess. This is one of those years that breaks the rules.

What's the nail on the coffin here tropically speaking.  The next frame in the loop shows ANOTHER Cold Front about to descent down again. This is what you call a "pattern" and it's been going on most of the summer and we are edging closer to Fall when there will only be more Cold Fronts. Yes, a week or two of Indian Summer will exist... probably ... who can say for sure this year?

The following day on Friday a new Cold Front moves south across Virginia and the Carolinas.

And, this pattern is why I say that if the Caribbean gets active later in the season like it so often does it will be a classic set up for Tropical Storms and Hurricanes to be pulled North..sucked North... attracted North or even Northeast towards landfall along the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and South Florida. Because the pattern ain't changing and the reason that storms did not form in the Caribbean is not the same reason they did not yet form in the Atlantic. It's the same "basin" officially, but two birds of different feathers or maybe brothers from a different mother. Mother Nature is tricky at times..

There is a small roll in the "juice loop" around 50 West where you can see the 10% yellow circle is TRYING to develop somethingm but it keeps losing it's mojo. 

Speaking of MJO... it's moving into our part of the world, however the signal may be weaker than normal and not as good of a definitive hurricane maker.. weak tropical storms maybe.

A low pressure system formed off of the coast of Carolina yesterday and is swirling up and carving it's way into the Northern side of the Bermuda High. Another swirl up ny Nova Scotia says a lot. No swirls, tropical depressions or storms or hurricanes are in the tropics and even wishcasters are quiet taking Xanax and playing Fantasy Football.

I cut and pasted this from Mike's page as they work well together:

Still shows the Central to the Eastern Atlantic Hot to Trot for Tropical Development.

Shows the Eastern Atlantic a prime piece of real estate for Tropical Development.

Reality Bites with the NHC Graphical Discussion:

That's all for today. An ULL is anchored, rooted to the Southern tip of Florida. When that chances give me a call... send up a flare.. fly a banner plane over my house :P

Visible Water Vapor - GOES East 12 hr Loop

The Water Vapor Loop does show the battle for the Western Atlantic between fronts, lows and the Bermuda High. Keep watching. It's the only show in the tropics as we move into the Labor Day Weekend.

As for me personally... 

I'm saying goodbye this week to a couple who is moving to Israel from Raleigh. My older daughter is in town and we are walking and cooking healthy food. My younger daughter is at college getting ready for her first NC State Football Weekend... shabbos, life goes on.. etc.  And, I'll be at a Farmers Market somewhere buying fresh apples to dip in honey later in the forecast period. Maybe a drive somewhere pretty.. to the coast or to the mountains or just out in the country. Who knows? 

One thing I know.. won't be tracking any big hurricanes going into Labor Day Weekend......then again 3 and 4 days before the Labor Day Storm of 1935 there was nothing out there also..and then there was...

Besos Bobbi


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