Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, June 23, 2012

The Problem with Tropical Storm Debby

Actually, there are a lot of problems... but the one most important and currently compelling is that a good majority of Debby's tropical weather is anchored to the East over Florida. And, she is pumping up band, after band of strong weather with winds in the 60mph range over a large area of the not so Sunshine State.

A tornado, albeit a minor one, touched down in the Naples, Florida area already today. Later this evening Fort Myers and Venice up the coast will also be under the gun.

This is one of your very typical, poorly organized "lopsided" Tropical Storms that the Gulf of Mexico is famous for... all the weather is far from the "center" where there is a closed circulation but barely any weather.

This can change. This often changes. This often doesn't change.

Your guess is as good as mine.

She is currently anchored, stalled in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico between an ULL to her WNW and an upper level low to her ENE. The models still split and take her west as a stronger stronger storm, east as a weaker storm.

I'm beginning to wonder if part of her moisture far to the east develops into a different system off the East Coast later in the week. Very out of the box thought .... but hard to explain how the GPS Model has stuck with this East Coast Storm scenario like a pit bull on a good day in a chicken farm...

The NHC has gone with the European model that takes her towards Texas and puts the Northern part of the Gulf of Mexico at a risk for dealing with tropical storm force conditions as well.

She might just stay and play in the Gulf of Mexico waiting for the steering currents to stop fighting out the battle for who gets Debby.

I'll be back later tonight or early tomorrow morning with more information.

Watch carefully to see if Debby's convection wraps around her center. If not ...the door is open for her to reform further to the east under her convection or... her low level (mid level?) center takes off towards the west and her strong convection lingers over Florida. A possibility.

Note, some of these tracks would bring much wanted rain for Texas. Other paths would lead to strong rains over a large area far inland that would also create huge amounts of inland flooding. Either way, Florida is going to keep getting hammered until she grabs her clothes around her and takes off for her true destination. Wondering if that could be Destin.. haha.  Hey, could be anywhere.

Keep watching. 

A side note to this discussion is the current trivia answer to what year has had FOUR named storms form before the end of June. 



Sweet Tropical Dreams



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