Nothing is Happening in the Tropics. But Dr. Phil Klotzbach from CSU Put Out His Thoughts on the Slow Period in the 2025 Hurricane Season Currently Going On.
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This is NOT a new seasonal forecast. It is an update on what has been going on so far and addressing the reasons that the signal for the 2025 Hurricane Season have gone somewhat silent and where we might go from here. I will add that there have been a lot of voices of reason over the last few days, but having a discussion put together by Dr. Phil Klotzbach himself is of great value. There are awsome illustrations, maps and more in depth analysis. I did say earlier today that I would update tomorrow morning on the various reasons things have been unexpectedly quiet and should be for at least the next week if forecasts verify and the NHC is correct. I didn't expect the report to come out today and tomorrow I may add some thoughts from others who have offered suggestions. But, this is a very welcome read and I suggest you read it as it's fairly easy to understand. And, he doesn't write long run on sentences the way I do :) so sure you'd all be able to understand the basics....
The link to the update is below
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025_0909_seasondiscussion.pdf
I have shared a few parts in quotation marks. Please read the entire report. I hope by sharing these parts of the report that was shared a little while ago on X, that you will read the entire report, look through the illustrations and then the next time you see a Water Vapor Loop or IR Loop you will better see what factors have popped up to put the Hurricane Season on a silent hold for a while. It's way better than reading random tweets or watching random TicToc videos. Next few paragraphs in italics are from the report you can read for yourself.
"1) Dry and stable tropical Atlantic While the Atlantic managed Category 5 Hurricane Erin, the Atlantic has struggled with producing deep convection this hurricane season. Vertical instability has been below normal throughout the season to date (Figure 2). The latest Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis also highlights dryness over most of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic (Figure 3). Precipitable water is currently running well below normal, which is likely one reason why there is very little model support for the African easterly wave currently located near Cabo Verde in developing into a TC"
"2) Tropical upper-tropospheric trough development As discussed in the last section, a TUTT has recently developed across the western Atlantic. This TUTT can be clearly seen in the latest analysis of the 200 hPa zonal wind field from the GFS (Figure 7). TUTTs are commonly associated with two features that are detrimental for TC development: increased vertical wind shear and increased mixing of dry air from the subtropics into the tropics"
"While TUTT development tends to be less frequent in hurricane seasons where the Atlantic is warm and cool neutral ENSO conditions are present, they still do occur. Often, these TUTT events are driven by enhanced convection over the Pacific Ocean, which triggers poleward-propagating Rossby waves that can then result in anticyclonic wavebreaking and associated development of TUTTs where the jet decelerates. During late August, enhanced convection developed over the Pacific (Figure 9), and at the same time, we had a pronounced trough develop in the southeast US, with a ridge farther offshore (Figure 10). That pressure pattern resulted in a deceleration of the jet stream in the western Atlantic (Figure 11), favoring TUTT development in this region"
"3) Recent anomalous subsidence and dryness over West Africa Over the past couple of weeks, we have generally had subsidence over Africa (Figure 9). This has led to reduced precipitation over West Africa (Figure 12), likely due to weaker African easterly waves. In general, higher amplitude (e.g., stronger) African easterly waves are more likely to form into TCs than are weaker African easterly waves. Consequently, these weaker waves, combined with less favorable shear and moisture conditions have caused the Atlantic hurricane season to become extremely quiet.
"What Does the Rest of the Atlantic Hurricane Season Have in Store? We believe that the next ~7–10 days are likely to remain quiet in the Atlantic, given largely TC-unfavorable vertical wind shear and moisture patterns (Figure 13). However, after that point, vertical wind shear is forecast by ECMWF to weaken substantially, potentially yielding much more Atlantic favorable TC conditions later this month. While the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) has generally been weak in recent days, there is the potential for the MJO to intensify over Africa and the Indian Ocean in ~2 weeks (Figure 14). If this were to occur, it would likely result in suppressed convection over the Pacific and rising motion over Africa/Indian Ocean, as forecast by....."
Again it's best you read the report as it's very timely and glad that Dr. Klotzbach put this special report out. Everyone is trying to pin the tail on the Hurricane Season and many agree and others disagree and no one is really sure how and why all these negative aspects came together at the perfect time to stop any storms from forming. Many are insisting the season is over and everyone is safe. That is very dangerous to do and while many of us joke around with each other on X and other sites, the public needs to be aware it is not over til it's over in 82 days at the end of November. Link below.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2025_0909_seasondiscussion.pdf
His tag line at the end of the report is of the utmost importance and should be rememebered.
"we advise considerable caution on writing off the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. As we saw last year, Atlantic TC seasons can change from quiet to busy in a hurry. We will have a complete forecast verification discussion on 18 November."
And I am adding, as he always mentions, it only takes ONE. A week or two of a favorable environment, would..........could........bring Major Hurricanes towards our Hurricane Shoreline. And, obvious that concern is for those in the Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda.
We have had a few years when the hurricane signal sort of "turned off" and we had a long period of nothing, always followed by lots of something and strong storms such as Milton last year. As I said yesterday it's good to remember Matthew, Michael, Mitch and Wilma and other late season Hurricanes that left us with ghoulish images of their eyes, structure and their destruction strewn across whatever towns were unlucky enough to host their landfall. Don't let your guard down, stay informed and be vigilant until we are deep into December.
posted by BobbiStorm @ 1:13 PM
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