Not So Anyday Now... But Maybe NHC Lowers Chances. 70/40 on Friday. ULL Getting Interesting, Has All the Convection 91L Lacks. New African Wave a Wow.

 

More than obvious there isn't much there.

Lots of reasons.

Bottom line...watching it.

Models begin to lose it 

What do you notice?
Front off the East Coast that stretches to UK

Below it, tucked carefully in like a football...

...is an Upper Level Low that swirls like a Cane.

Swallowed too much convection.......

...could transition into a named entity.

To it's right 2 more ULLs

Furtherest to the right it still attached to 91L

It's been dogging it for days now.

This is not a hospitable environment.

But it is September... so if anything looks good.

It could develop.

91L has never looked good.

But it looked good on the models.

Oh.......okay.

Know what looks good?

Lead wave still looks better than 91L

Oh....but lead wave has no model support.

Oh.....okay.

Whatever is left of 91L

and the lead wave ahead of it.

Should go into the Caribbean.

Should either get up into Gulf

Good luck!

Gulf more explosive

Florida Straits ready and waiting

Elsewhere it's shear city.

And the MJO is a no show.

Bottom line.

I see lead the ULL that needs a yellow circle.

I see a wave complex

I see edge of a big ass African Wave.

Hard to even find 91L today

And it's been hard to find it the whole week.

See this.........

Our Invest is over nearing the LOW potential area.

Water temperatures... Energy.

You can't examine every model........

...and yet ignore the basics that drive tropical meteorology.

Here's a map.

A huge, super huge HIGH.

Double Barreled High.

From one edge to another of the Atlantic.

Red L is for 91L

Red L over Africa next candidate.

This is really the case of chasing models and not watching the synoptics, both in the atmosphere and the ocean below, and the reality of the wave we are dealing with is a disconnect and creates misundertandings. I'd add it's become a huge problem, huge like the High and wide like the Saharan Dust still refusing to leave past it's allowed time on the invite.  Models are great, we all watch them even when people complain others are watching too much. To me they are just a "possible scenario" and nothing more. I judge the model by how it has performed recently and whether it lines up with the reality of the wave itself and the the actual set up. 

Two days ago models showed The Wave making landfall, somewhere near Charleston. Everyone hot and heavy all over the model that showed that and comparing it to the AI models, ensemble models, etc. 

The next day, yesterday, it hit South Florida with a substantial hurricane. Everyone jumped on it and pretended to feel bad about sharing it and the NHC raised development up to 90% and oh while the wave showed some signs of life; the wave had some convection yet it was doing odd things looking as if it was being lifted North towards the Upper Level Low to it's North. Meanwhile the wave in front of it had convection and signs of a circulation forming on Earthnull, yet because the models were run on on 91L nothing else existed online. 

Big green ball top 1/4 of the image above.

ULL that swallowed too much convection.

The convection 91L could not find, go figure.

Orange = Dry and Not hospitable to waves.

Most crazy, yes using that word, is that practically no one was talking about the huge, swirling Upper Level Low that was ingesting convection that 91L couldn't even find and taking up a good part of the Atlantic. Nothing much said on it.

Today many of the models backed down, and showed little if any development. The Charleston Hurricane was gone, the Miami Hurricane was gone and everyone is quietly trying to disappear who was sure the wave was going to be the next Erin or Hugo!

I chase weather. I love weather. I write on weather. I lecture on weather. I photograph weather. I stand out in the rain soaking wet smiling.  I chase a line of thunderstorms trying to get the best picture of the whole line (really hard to do in this part of NC) and stand at the beach in a tropical storm feeling invigorated and enjoying every wild minute.  Don't even get me started on Snow.......

A model is just a model. It's not your latest update of some video game that you have been obsessed with and when you lose, game over you start over and try again.  This is fine for Gaming, but we are not doing gaming here and models are not Video Games; this is not Minecraft this is Meteorology. 

CLIMO gets a vote always and it would skew the results to the side of development. But never ever never have I ever seen a wave complex move 5 to 10 MPH for a week and never ever did anyone say "this will definitely help development" never ever. 

The Wave aka Invest 91L did have a good chance of development,  before something changed. What changed? The 3 Upper Level Lows to the North of the ITCZ churning up shear in an environment that was already less than hospitable.  

Oh.........the MJO ........the missing guest at everyone's Sunday Dinner Table. For the third time this season everyone jumped on the models showing the MJO was going to show up and make things spicy and help development. Once it kind of sort of showed, just enough maybe, but no it did not show up in any real viable way. People said "well it did show it was just tiny" to which I'd reply "oh, okay.... really?" 

Where does that leave us? We are still watching Invest 91L. Models are always running. 

Some models keep playing with it.

Others lose it.

Westbound than WNW

Into the Islands as it's weak.

Weak goes West.

What worries me the most is this:

Should something develop in the Gulf

(near that round ball) 

Close in down near the Florida Keys...

Down in the Carib if there's a friendly spot..

Hot water close in ...Homegrown.

Watch that area and the ULL.

And Invest 91L still a thing.

That's it. Have a great weekend. Leaving you with a video I made this morning when I was half awake, but awake enough to be annoyed.  Turn the sound up if you'd like to hear my thoughts, many I expressed here but more carefully after some "more better coffee" (that's a phrase Down South) then in the video where I was being playful, trying to be honest and get back to the basics of life.

I think we all need to get back to the basics.

Meteorology 101

Models are awesome assets.

Most awesome when they have reliable answers.

Good tools.

Generally waves don't move 5 to 10 MPH for days.

That should be the first clue ...there's a problem.

But whatever :)

Sweet Tropical Dreams

I do believe Gabrielle will form.

Somewhere else if not here.

Hopefully not in the Hot Tub known as the Gulf.

Ps ...No I'm not implying Texas will get a Cane.

It's just a great, old song.

Sweet