Big Wave Riding Low Off Africa. 40% Orange. Swirl Forming Near FL at Tail End of a Front. Hmnn. Are We Sure Where Gabrielle Forms vs Humberto? Who Knows. Too Soon To Tell. Enjoy the Holiday! Labor Day 2025

Another view... note how low it is.

This is a slow mover.

Taking it's time.

Slow often keeps it low.....

..weak can keep it West.

Many recurve after Islands.

Nothing carved in stone.

Hasn't formed.

We can't even say for sure this is 

Gabrielle.

What if a pop up low grabs Gabrielle name.

And this is Humberto?

No guarantees with slow moving waves.

This is the 2 day.

Zero chances in the 2 day.

Note high lat wave behind it.

No one mentioning that...

Good summary for the day!

But we are at orange 40%-that's big.

Let's look at the big picture!

EPAC on the busy side.

Thoughts are it'll move on E into Atlantic Basic.

The "busy" not the storms.

CAG lighting up in SW Carib.

CAG produces Gulf storms so remember that.

Front.

Watch the tail end of the front near Florida!!

Quiet MDR...

Then contestants coming off of Africa.

Yes.... anything currently approaching US Coast

would most likely catch a front out to sea.

That said on any given Sunday... things change.

It's called Indian Summer.

Fronts go poof!

So why is it so quiet on September 1st, on Labor Day, many people are asking. First of all Saharan Dust outlived it's invite this year. There has also been wind shear in the MDR due to what we call King Tutt or just Tutt as it spins and creates wind shear in the Main Development Region known as MDR. It's a hurricane killer often when they pitch a tent and refuse to leave. Tropospheric Squatter is how I think of them! It's not exactly clear sailing, and yet models hold onto it and expect it to make it across the Atlantic. Note the long orange formation zone on the NHC page.

As for models........

.....I'd stop the loop here.

There is consistency it gets across MDR

Some lift it.

Some keep it low.

Watch forward speed.

Watch the wave behind it.

Spotted light dots to the North =SAL

Our wave just hanging there ....

...debating what to do.

Wave to the NE of it coming off High.

Too soon to tell.

As I'm typing listening to Mike.

Listening to Mike is a habit in the morning.

Note he's showing ensembles.

There is scribble scrabble in the Gulf.

There is some discussion from NHC...

..on moisture lingering at tail end of front.

Stalled out front.

Prime Real Estate for Homegrown Development.

Zooming in 

Mike's arrows not mine.

My bottom line is while waiting for Gabrielle to form, are you sure on where she is forming? Some homegrown surprise could get that name and the slow moving wave might be Humberto. Not saying it is but I want you to remember nothing is carved in stone.

Have a great holiday today. Sweet Tropical Dreams. It was 57 here this morning in NORTH Carolina. Wow. As in AC won't come on it's cool in the house and the sky is blue and it's beautiful dry air and I'm loving it! Again fronts usually go "poof" when we have Indian Summer (probably early this year) and the door would be open to a landfall, but it's a narrow one from a WNW storm. But the door is very wide open with a "welcome sign" in the Gulf if something forms from the CAG and pulls together near Cuba or the Yucatan or if a homegrown surprise storm pops up off the Florida coast...   

Sweet Dreams of your favorite Weather!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Enjoy your Holiday with a JB tune!