5 PM Update on Erin .... Approaching the the Outer Banks. OBX Brush with Erin's Violent Surf & Stormy Bands

 

Facts above.

Cone below.

Watches and Warnings

Warnings up into Virginia

Erin's bands across North Carolina

and Virginia.

She is politely staying offshore.

Her core with 110 MPH winds.

But her punishing, pounding surf...

..moves out away from her.

Will see Thursday Morning...

...how much damage she does!

From there she takes her show on the road.

Coastal Roads from NC to NY 

and New England.

Iceland maybe too!

But she's closest to NC 8/21

So we will see tomorrow!

Let's look at the tropics.

Center stage is Erin.

Dark strong core

Wild stormy bands....

Curving away from her.

Surf you can't see...

... it's waves on their way to shore.

Orange area is the lead system.

IF it forms it would follow Erin.

Up and out to sea ...

Invest 99L closer to Africa

A new African Wave sets sail....

Invest 99L could try and form.

Models seem to lose it.

I will say long range GFS 

(yeah a writing prompt for comedy....)

September 3rd.......

...makes a huge hurricane in the Gulf

GFS September Dreams.

This is not to say that the GFS is not on to some development around the 1st of September. And, I do think something will ...could form and we will be tracking....but it's always a Cat 5 on the last day of it's run is like believing Charlie Brown will really kick this football and Lucy will not pull it away. Now if you want to bet on that happening, go for it. I'll wait til it's still there on the 6th day or the 7th day of a run. 

It would be strange if we didn't have a named storm.

Maybe the next wave off is the one.

Today is August 20th.

Dr. William Gray of CSU fame...

...would ring a bell.

Season picks up!

Where do we go from here this year?

Phil Klotzbach on the left.

Dr. Gray his mentor on the right!

Dr. Gray everyone's mentor.....

I had some fascinating conversations with him.

I learned a lot, he was a deep soul!

Beautiful eyes....

Could draw you into a story :)

So ring that bell...

Erin is ringing lots of bells today.

She is literally the lady in red today.

Again.

She's the Come Back Girl.

The original Show Girl!

Keep reading if you did not.

Leaving you here with a song.

NHC feels Erin is as good now as she gets.

We will see.....

Great song........yeah.....still gets to me :)

Keep reading if you didn't!

Earlier this morning below....

Erin eyeing the Carolinas.

About to cruise past Myrtle Beach

Her distant bands caressing NC coastline.

She's offshore but she has her eyes on you...

I used to date a boy in school whose family was from NY. He probably was born in NY. When he'd pull into a parking space he'd park very carefully and sort of tap the curb always. I'd say "you hit the curb" and he'd say "No I kissed it" and I'd look at him with a smile but think that's a funny thing to say. My father, who was from the Bronx, told me that was a saying where he came from "kiss the curb" so I'll say here that Erin's outer bands are kissing the Outer Banks!

That's the gentlest thing she will do to the Outer Banks! Her outflow moves out ahead of her and it's a majestic thing to see when you watch the distant bands of a huge spiraling hurricane moving in and across your sky. In Miami sometimes we see that from a far away huge Gulf Hurricane and we watch it appear and disappear. It's awesome and an incredible reminder of the hugeness, the wildness of Mother Nature and amazing that a hurricane can take up a good part of the Eastern Gulf and parts of Florida while moving North towards landfall. For North Carolina and Virginia it's more a foreboding of what will come over the next 36 to 48 hours as the distant Eastern side of Erin will be propelling huge waves onto the Banks, across the dunes (often smashing into them) flooding the roads and one can only wonder how bad this gets?  

Erin takes up the whole Georgia Bight.

The neck of the coastline.

As if it was indeed parking itself.

And, yet it IS on the move.

And those to the North...

The Chesapeake 

Del Marva Beaches

NJ and NY beaches.

Long Island

Cape Cod

Maine?

This is more than just North Carolina. Though I will say from the start Erin always was destined to impact the Carolinas as Florida rarely was in the picture as a destination and with our "early fall" or Fake Fall as many say up in this neck of the wood that s has cold fronts that will move down far enough to influence Erin.  While the descending front will not grab her and swing her up inland, it will take her and ride off with her into the distant Atlantic. And, they will ride off all the way towards England, Ireland and that part of the world.

Erin really is an amazing story. A drama that is played out in real time. Only later will we know what really ensued vs what was forecast and everyone here is watching. Sort of hits me as "not fair" in that Helene took aim on our beautiful mountains and Erin is taking aim on our beautiful beaches. Maybe I don't want to know what comes next......

I will update at 11 AM! In truth the Cone keeps on extrapolating with only a little tug here and there. Her windspeed is not as much the issue here as the tremendous strength of her waves. Bryan Norcross was saying yesterday that when he would surf the waves as a kid they felt like concrete in a storm and yes he has admitted that as a kid he did go to the beach to surf when a hurricane was coming in. But knowing him he knows his facts and he is detail oriented so it was a calculated risk a youth does not a gamble.

That said...... I will update later today. I'll update with facts and thoughts on the other tropical areas being watched. This morning I just wanted to stop and take a moment to appreciate the greatness, hugenes and wild wonders of the meteorological universe. For one we are very grateful she did not punch deep inland as Fran and Hugo did and on the other hand we so love our beaches. That's what the Carolinas and Virgnia all about...the seasons and the mountains to the West and the piedmont in the middle, and the river vallies and the beaches to our East. It's a great place to live if you like weather as you get a little bit of everything. 

I'll be back later