ERIN Spinning West Cruising Through Saharan Dust Trying to Get to Warmer Water and More Favorable Environment.

 

Timing on Wind Arrivals.

And there is Erin on visible imagery.

Tightly wound still.

Perfectly round.

Center very visible.

Barreling into Saharan Dust.

As if it doesn't see it or care......

It's hard to see this image above...

..and think Erin survives.

But it's tightly wound, moving fast.

Scooting along.

Models show it hanging in there.

Models show it getting strong down the road.

Once past the SAL and in warmer water.

Grid from Spaghettimodels.com 

Keeps it W than WNW

Flirts with Islands.

Scares everyone in FL

And up the coast.

Gets stronger fast.

Then "recurves" pulling North.

I know, it's hard to believe.

Hard to trust.

Always an option you can't rule out.

It's hard to sit here and type a blog telling you "not to worry" and that "models curve it North" and things are set in stone, as nothing is ever set in stone this far out. I would never tell you not to worry as worry keeps you informed and keeps your prepared and we are early into the busy part of the season and if Erin follows the models in a graceful curve North there will be others that may not miss your neck of the woods.  Don't obsess but follow those you trust and watch updates.

In truth models have been pulling further West and South in small degrees but over time that gets it way further West than it showed two days ago. And, it's weak and even NHC discussion has mentioned how it's struggled with dry air (Saharan Dust aka SAL) and cooler water temps and yet it keeps on rolling. Some storms do just fine rolling through dust and others choke early on and fall apart.

And then there's the new AI models and the various ensembles. Won't lie a few come onshore but the majority of them do not. And the line is the track it's expected to take based on all Intel vs looking at that one dot that breaks from the pack and nails your city. 

Every long tracking CV storm or hurricane that does this track does the same thing. It drives all of us crazy. Worrying NHC is wrong. Thinking every "what if" scenario and it always reminds me of Hurricane Floyd that sailed past Miami making that turn and it seemed impossible to believe the NHC it'd turn that close as did Dorian after the Bahamas and a gazillion more before Dorian and Floyd. NC often gets clipped on it's way out to sea and the tip of Long Island watches carefully. 

NHC nailed this track...

..insisting it was not a Florida Cane.

Despite the steady track WNW.

Stay the course for now. The course means "do hurricane prep, building a hurricane supply kit and making plans for what you would do should Erin or Fernand and all the rest like Karen show a Cone that comes to your front door. NHC doing a good job and if anything changes they will make changes in their forecast and mention it in discussion a good product to read.

It's all about fronts.

We have fronts.

A front is forecast to dip down....

Erin feels the front.

Only wrench would be IF Erin stalled...

..or slowed down.

Or was weaker than expected.

So hang in there.

Thanks for being here.

Hang in there.

Stay alert...

..and have a good day.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather - elsewhere whatever.