Hurricane Harbor: 8 PM Erin 85 MPH - 1st Hurricane of 2025 Season Recon Finds Winds.... New Small Yellow Circle Off Carolinas... It Won't Last Long..

8 PM New Yellow circle off Carolinas

Okay....

Erin 85 MPH

WNW at 17 MPH

8 PM

Will update the blog on Saturday Evening

****

2 PM they put out updates...

..as there is a Tropical Storm Watch for Islands.

Strong winds in distant bands.

2 PM is below.

Little strange looking below.

Dry air has entrained in her.

She should mix it out.

Happens...

You can see dry air well on Mimic below

If you follow the sea green color...

then yellow

comes down and around

seeps into her system.

You can see it sort of separates her left flank

from the center.

Overall she's pumping.

Intensity from 11 kept at 75 MPH at 2 PM

Trust me becoming a hurricane isn't that easy.

It's a process, lots of things attack the storm.

Then generally they mix it out and rebound.

She's is forecast to have quite the rebound.

Discussion shows 140 MPH as a top speed.

11 AM mentioned questions on dry air.

Not questions at 2 PM

See what they say at 5 PM

5 PM full advisory package

Forecast points and wind speed below.

Tropical Storm Warch

Note question on PR

told to monitor Erin's progress.

Questions on will they put up a Watch...

Going to shift into models discussion. It's interesting to note the Euro and Icon are very similar til they begin to go their separate ways. The GFS actually does show the small trouble Erin is having with two areas of convection with the dry air mixed in, but that's not my focus here as much to say as GFS did show that. First look at the current image of GFS and note neither Euro nor Icon show that so GFS did see that.

IR below.

Euro has Erin here on Tuesday.

Icon has Erin close to the coast on Tuesday.

Icon is closer.

Strong.

It does make the curve.... turn.

Icon at the closest.

It's a model, for what it's worth.

1 of many, many models.

Long term

Yes GFS cooking up a Cane.

Takes it thru Islands far down the road

Not showing pics.

Crawls up the backbone of Cube.

Shoots the Straits on the Cuban Side

Arrives in the Gulf

Head's to it's fav dream vacation.

Nola

Other models do not show that

So GFS is back to dreaming...

..GFS loves Nola ;)

Back to Erin

You can see the wall of SAL to her North.

Comes down and around into her.

Then they "mix it out"

Note you can compare and contrast

below the Dvovark from earlier this morning

Please keep reading if you didn't earlier.

Final thoughts fast...

Stay tuned......

So my thoughts? Watch Erin. Follow the NHC. I cannot rule out that it gets closer to South Florida and rides the West side of the Cone until we see for sure how it handles the dry air to the North and it's worth reminding people smalls storms can intensify fast, fall apart fast, then come back rather fast. Down the road she is forecast to grow in size and strength and be a larger storm dancing in the Atlantic East of the Outer Banks. Will see how close she gets to Bermuda. Too soon to say really. Song at the bottom. Thanks for your patience and excuse me if I am off today as I'm sick. My husband got sick after we got back from the Outer Banks last week and I mean sick fast as he walked in the door and started coughing and sneezing. On the trip back he seemed fine. I was tired but it was a fast trip, fun exhausting and had sweet moments with some family. Saw the lighthouse under repairs (never saw that one before more familiar with Bodie Lighthouse) and walked a lot and I was tired. He slept all weekend. Not a good sign but he does sleep often when he is sick. I began to get sick also though not that bad, just icky and breathing issues I figured were asthma but were not. I suggested if he wanted we had Covid tests under the sink, he could take one or just throw them out. Monday a friend pushed him to take it and yeah he tested positive. Like that happened which I'm laughing because as the one daughter I told said "that's a thing still?" and I said apparently. It's like a bad cold with the incessant, annoying dry cough. He's on the mend, I'm a few days behind. Wasn't on my BINGO card some of the kids were supposed to come up this weekend but we are rescheduling. So I'm sipping tea with honey and taking some regular meds and looping loops and I'm a little bit loopy. So excuse any spelling mistakes or context...

It was a great trip to the Outer Banks. We usually do the Southern Outer Banks closer to home but fun being at Hatteras and glad we went. Its a virus. Not that terrible if you rest. Apparently the new variant is Nimbus or Status! Yay I have a meteorologically named virus. Rolling eyes. Truth is it's the first time anyone here was sick enough to think on taking a test. I was a little shocked he took it as he only told me after the fact screaming out from the Dining Room "I just tested positive for Covid" I looked up while looping and didn't know whether to laugh or curse. All in all not the worst variant I've had as I had it a few times. Ride it out like those hot days of Summer that seem like they will never end but they do and then Fall is around the corner :) Hey my sense of humor is coming back. Much love have a great weekend!

Love the Weather Station at Manteo!!

Got my toes in the sand....

...water was cold.

Awesome trip.

10AM blog below.

See that heart in the middle of Erin?

Not a heart....most likely an eye developing.

NHC is SURE it'll CURVE

Recon found Hurricane Force Winds.

NHC hasn't updated the site yet...

..Tropical Tidbits now has it as a Hurricane.

And it is. Perfect structure.

I want you to look closely at the image from the MIMIC above. Note how Invest 98L and Erin look similar in ways. Wound up with a strong moisture trail. I say trail vs tail as it explains better what I am concerned on with Invest 98L as it may not have the wind strength for an upgrade but it has a lot of moisture and that will move inland into Texas with a name or not a name. Water and flooding remains the problem and what to be concerned on here. Sure looks as if it will hit the Islands and they will get some strong breezes and perhaps a few showers on the edge as it turns away but the models seem sure. Check out how much moisture Erin has... sort of like a rain bomb.

I will update after the 11 AM as it should be officially Hurricane by then. If not why would they ignore Recon finding hurricane force winds and indeed this is where it was forecast to go Cane.