Erin Swirls 13 MPH WNW Above the Islands But Islands Getting Weather How Close to E Coast Does She Get? Beach Erosion & Dangerous Surf Impacts Possible. As for Next Storm Fernand... Thoughts

 

Cone and details below

The NHC stays with their basic track adjusting it a bit for wobbles West or movement more to the left or a slower speed, but expects it to make that turn as the door opens up in the Atlantic ...as if they said Open Sesame from the old movie and allows Erin to curve gracefully out to sea. The wrinkle in this forecast is how close it gets to the coastline and the EURO and the GFS disagree on the timing and closeness to the coast.

This is the EURO

Closer to OBX

That would have many beach impacts.

Eye stays far offshore.

But Erin is forecast to get huge.

Winds go out far from the center.

Surf could be crazy.

Beach Erosion and Dangerous Surf.

Next GFS below

GFS stays further out to sea.

And on the same day as above 8/21

Erin is swirling up near the other Cape.

Cape Cod closer to Canadian Maritimes

And you gotta wonder when the GFS is the voice of reason. Strange year 2025, always interesting but not always the entertainment we were looking for ... long term she's all about fantasy but once we have a storm she's practical. Interesting. You'll see down below when we talk on our next possible Storm.

Back to Erin...

Only thing I'll say on Wind Probs

They shifted them West.

Rocky Mount...

..whoa just up the road from me.

Understand this is not because Erin is moving towards a landfall at Morehead City as much as the wind field expands and takes up a good part of the Atlantic at this latitude and winds, Tropical Storm force winds or gale force can be felt at a further distance from the center of the hurricane. The Cone tracks the center of the hurricane and where the path should be (should as it's a forecast not a summary of after the fact) and so wind probabilities can wobble about a bit as do models and sometimes hurricanes when they go through Eyewall Replacement Cycle. 

This is a screenshot from his YT video.

Mr. Weatherman on YouTube

He's good, he covers much in a short time.

Doesn't speak fast, just very organized.

We are ALL hoping Erin goes thru the Uprights!

Between OBX and Bermuda.

Note water temperatures...

...out ahead of Erin

Up in the Atlantic.

This is far from over.

The main thing to watch here is how fast she moves as timing is everything and so does she stay at 13 MPH forward speed or move it on up to 15 MPH or does she slow down to 12 MPH? The waiting at this point is always hard and there are TS watches and warnings up for the Turks and as a kid I was taught by someone with great knowledge and experience when they put up watches for the Turks pay attention in Miami. Doesn't mean it goes to Miami but it's a benchmark for when to really sit up and pay attention to these hurricanes that slide up and over the Islands. Note while lashing the islands with bands of heavy rains. Now I live in North Carolina, while spending much time in South Florida, and I watch to see how close she gets to the Carolinas. I'm a loyal girl but I sometimes I have a divided heart and I can love many places at the same time.

Today is a day when Erin does her thing. And, I am going to do mine. Feeling much better and have more energy with a lingering cough; perhaps I need way better cough syrup?

Have a great day. Stay alert. Model runs take turns doing something or nothing with the following area of interest and we are all interested!

So I am going to end here as I wrote long last night. Keeping this short and sweet on Sunday Morning and I may update later in the day. 

Oh ......I promised models. So let's go with long range GFS that always promises presents but often sleeps late and forgets your birthday in real time!

X off OBX is just a guide post of sorts.

Helping pull Erin up there...

....not on shore ;)

20% Yellow Submarine

Often after a Cat 5 the Atlantic needs a rest.

Relaxes a bit. 

Many models see nothing much.

EURO does a redo of Erin ...

....plays Follow the Leader

GFS sees something ...of course.

That would be Fernand on 8/27

Buying tobacco seed in Havana.

Soul of an old Cigar Dealer

Makes perfect sense to me.

I won't show where it goes...

...but further on up the Gulf

I can say LA/TX

believe last run was FL

You want a forecast or a fantasy?

Just keep watching.

One storm at a time.

One song at a time.

Sweet Sunday Dreams!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

Elsewhere whatever and weather.

2 song day today.

Love Jimmy always will.

Awesome in person....

...happy he's on YT

(& boxes of CDs hidden away)

And memories I'll never forget...

song below stuck in my mind is below

trying to get it out of my mind 

Thinking this should be wall art!

An old 1960s Commerial Advertisement.

Movie Poster?

The Cane That Couldn't Say No!

Maybe was the 50s or 70s.

My mother had a Record Cover.... 

...similar to this. 

A bit of Weather Art is always good.