African Wave Got It's Legs in the Water.... 30% Yellow from NHC Opening Bid.... Stay Tuned. Models & Remember Nothing is Set in Stone. Westbound Possibilities...

 

The wave has lifted off the coast of Africa

Officially in the water.

X marks the spot.

I like the water vapor loop.

Easier to see the "pocket"

Has a slight twist.

Earthnull shows it as well.

So where is it going? Well, first it has to form and preferably there will be an Invest at some point soon and then there will be more in depth information beyond speculation. It's a big wave, has a signature and models have been playing with it's possibilities for a while now. Remembering that models change all the time in various ways when we have a new tropical wave, I'm showing this below. The point here is that the models show it surviving and traveling different lengths of time to the West or WNW.

For those screaming FISH!

To each his own.

It's not a Fish til it's turning fast to the NNW.

These models show an array of westward movement.

There was an problem recently with turbulence.

Severe turbulence.

Maybe you saw it in the news...

The plane from Aspen to Houston...

...suddenly has severe turbulence.

people were injured.

It set down in Dallas short of it's destination.

My exhusband had an incidence when he was young, flying from LA to NYC by himself and the plane suddenly dropped and the stewardess serving food went flying in the air she was actually hit by the cart from which she was serving beverages. And, then the plane was fine and the Captain came on apologizing for the sudden turbulence and let the passengers know everything was okay. He added they may want to stay in their seats with their seatbelts on adding that they don't expect anymore severe turbulence, but "then again they didn't expect that one" adding that the stewardess would be treated for a possible broken arm.

He was not the easiest person to fly with, though he did fly, but he'd hold my hand tightly when the plane would jiggle around a bit. He said the turbulence incident was very scary and sudden as the plane just dropped and anything not tied down went flying to the top of the plane and crashed back onto the passengers and pretty much everywhere.

And, while watching the news on this incident it occured to me that this might be a good way to explain how when a tropical wave leaves Africa in 2025, despite all of our scientific knowledge and our ability to fly rockets perfectly to the Space Station things sometimes crop up the way the crew of the space station was stranded there way past their short assignment until a new rocket could be made ready to rescue them.

Nothing is carved in stone in tropical weather and the atmosphere is fluid, as it was the day the severe turbulence came out of nowhere. Andrew wasn't supposed to hit South Florida as a Cat 5 it was just a weak tropical storm that barely became a Hurricane headed elsewhere. Irma was not supposed to make that little dip down to Cuba and her Cuban vacation altered the trajectory of her track and while it did impact Miami ... Miami was spared a strong, direct hit by a Major Hurricane.

Shear forecasts don't always verify.

MJO forecasts don't always verify.

Saharan Dust lingers past it's seasonal invitation.

The list is long and too complicated to post in a short blog post about a wave that is just leaving Africa as I type this... 

Mimic shows it has a strong moisture signature.

Large, bigger waves often manage to get further West.

All waves have the potential to curve into the Atlantic.

Really, time will tell.

Anyone who tells you it's a FISH for SURE..

..is guessing.

Anyone who tells you it'll make landfall at ___

..is guessing.

But one thing I can say..

..it's a beautiful wave.

Has beautiful legs...

Have a great weekend.
Happy Labor Day Weekend!

Last day of August.

Tomorrow begins Meteorological Summer!

Sweet Summer Dreams are fading...

...Sweet Autumn Dreams coming on fast!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X