Hurricane Harbor: Waiting on Invest Status With a 70% Red African Wave.... Should We Be Watching the CAG or for Home Grown? You Choose. EPAC Has Action.

It is almost 2 weeks away from the US unless it picks up speed somewhere, and so far speed has not been it's signature card. Then again it depends where the actual "center" is that's trying to develop enough to the degree that the NHC raised it's chances up to Red. We could expect to see an Invest later today, so stay tuned. Once we have an Invest we have way better info to share and compare and evaluate! NHC says, as of 8 AM, "that a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or the weekend" and that covers a whole lot of bases.

So let's talk "weather" a bit before going on about the Cabo Verde Wave. Cold has dipped down into the South and another cold front behind it is going to dip down again. This is, for now, a reinforcing pattern. We are not as much into "False Fall" as we are an Early Fall or one that arrived on time for Meteorological Fall. Florida, of course, is not included in any part of Fall other than sipping Pumpkin Spice Frappes!

See all that beautiful blue.

Almost Cobalt Blue!

Covers North Carolina.

Cool ...dry air!!

South Carolina has some Aqua Blue.

The Gulf and Florida is still filled with golds.

Rain is hanging around flirting with South Florida

(they have actually have a drought)

Actually is my big word today.

There is actually a pink/purple area......

...where some feel a Low is forming.

Not the NHC they have not marked it.

They have Epicurean Tastes these days !

They aren't interested in Fast Food it seems!

While I am in love with the cooler, dry air...

Mike, in Tampa, is watching the rain.

The Rains.

It's gonna rain for days if this map verifies.

Very "juicy" as he loves to say.

Weather is always a matter of perspective.

So "why is rain in Florida important"

You may ask....

IF something developed down below...

..the rain would be a magnet!

Lows, sometimes form, at...

...tail ends of fronts.

There are lots of models.

Long range ensembles of all kinds.

It's an All Day Model Buffet!

As soon as you clearn your plate......

...they put out something new to enjoy!!

With the front draped across Florida and signs of the CAG (Central American Gyre) waking back up as it does in the Fall and that area off the Florida coast swirling around I'm looking at this part of the world, while waiting for that other part of the world to get an Invest and actually develop a center. It's a large wave and large waves often take a longer time to pull together, but once they get going they can be a force to reckon with...

From Left to right....

The EPAC has a storm that may or may not make landfall; chasers are watching it carefully as there's been a dearth of chaseable storms this year so far. Off Florida you can see the Fast Food that some people are watching as it has more curvature currently than the African Wave. Of course, it's going out to sea in the "Follow the Leader" game evident in this Water Vapor Loop above. A wave approaches the islands (that's been a pattern) and our long, wide, wave complex off of Africa that odds are in it's favor of getting an Invest today. Depending where that wave actually develops a center can be a game changer.