September 8th, 2025 Hurricane Season Without MDR Hurricanes. More Basins Than the MDR. 1921 Slow MDR Season But Really Bad Season for Tampa with a Cat 4 Stay Vigilant, Stay Informed, Hold On to the Hurricane Supplies.

Where are we Monday, September 8th regarding the tropics and the weather. A beautiful cold front has cleared the Carolinas and Georgia working it's way down the Florida Peninsular. I have blue skies, windows open and sunlight illuminating every leaf on the Maple Tree still green, though it will turn soon. Maples Trees turn later than the Dogwood and some Oaks are already going golden. It's obviously "cool" not cold, but as time moves on the fronts will become colder. There's a breeze, it's beautiful.

Everything has it's own time and that's the way the world works. PreSeason storms, Bay of Campeche storms forming close in upon landfall. Storms on either side of Florida often form close in. Eventually we turn our focus to the distant Atlantic as we watch a parade of tropical waves move off of Africa, some way better than the others. Some survive, most fall apart becoming "rain" that in many years tracks its way across the Atlantic and provides moisture for crops growing in America's farmlands. I believe there was a statistic back when that 2/3 of all Tropical Waves leave a moisture trail that moves up into the Gulf, into the Mississippi Valley enhancing rain during the growing season. I actually learned it in a class in Geography and Geopolitics that explained how the USA has a rich, fertile region that grows wheat and corn and other crops that help sustain us. Whereas Russia, for example, with most of it's big cities North near the Arctic Circle have historically relied on a region known as The Ukraine and it's once Satellite Republics such as Hungary for wheat, corn, fruit and incredible cherries. That was before Ukraine became a country on August 24, 1991 just one year before Hurricane Andrew. For centuries European Russia vs the part by China and Alaska got it's grain from Ukraine. A professor once said if we can't remember that remember Ukraine rhymes with grain. 

To everything there is a season and when it comes to a good growing season, vs a drought the weather patterns that exist favor the USA for growing grain and other wonderful crops from Georgia Peaches to North Carolina Strawberries and the list goes on and on. There's a bigger drama here going on than whether or not Gabrielle or Humberto will develop in the Atlantic or if the MDR will get a named storm soon. 

Weather impacts everything and wars have been fought over the need, the greed to get better crops to survive attacking a bordering country across for it's resources that they lack all across the globe throughout history. Countries in South America fought in wars and argued in International Courts because when a strong El Nino formed they could not catch fish in their own waters and reached out into other countries waters. Weather impacts everything, especially survival.

Hurricanes move tropical air from the equator to the poles, it's a process that generally keeps our planet a great place to live. 

September usually brings huge Hurricanes in the Atlantic, most curve gracefully out to sea while pushing around the atmophere as they are supposed to do. Sometimes they make landfall, and thankfully we have the NHC to cautiously, carefully advise us to the dangers inherent in the way the planet works and advise us if a hurricane may be coming to our state, our town ... our part of the world. NHC has many products, aside from the colorful, iconic Cone. They out to Tropical Weather Discussion every day, updating several times a day. Words matter. It's always good to read. Below is an example on their discussion on Tropical Waves today.

Nothing expected in 7 days.

Showing the 2 day so you see why.

There is a blob in the Atlantic nearing Islands

or South America.

There's convection along with the front close in.

Not much going on.

And models have been fairly crappy and inconsistent.

Lots of discussion on this online.

Remember surprises sometimes pop up.

Watch in real time.

The Hurricane Season is not over.

The MDR is not producing.

In Post Season analysis it will be clear why.

Today is 9/8 and the season ends 11/30

That's 83 days away.

Lots could happen.

And in reality....

our worst storms often form in the Carib.

SW Carib vs MDR

Many MDR hurricanes are Fish Storms.

Curving out to sea.

Carib often end up in the Gulf

Gulf is landlocked....

...and they make landfall.

Or they go N from SA as Sandy did to NYC.

Hazel in mid October moving N out of Carib.

Indian Summer with it's lack of fronts....

...often invites Canes North...

then a front comes down and grabs it

but where and when tells the story.

We are in the middle of a long novel.

Hurricane Season 2025

Often seasons such as this one....

..have a big, bang ending.

Let's look at 1921

Tampa Bay Hurricane in October.

Up from the Caribbean.

Typical track.

Note the season got busy in Mid September.

The Star Cat 4 showed up in Late October.

Notice the MDR was silent more or less.

One hurricane formed and recurved politely...

...after slamming the Islands and pulling North

One hell of a Exclamation Mark!

So remember please.......

It only takes one to rock your world Flood the mtn roads & towns Create havoc in Augusta, GA Smash beach towns & add up ACE Matthew Michael Milton Mitch Sandy Wilma Ps in alphabetical order.

For more information in a well written, incredible blog ...please click the link below that explains, shows and tells the story of some of the meanest, largest, strongest hurricanes that came at the end of the season. Late September into October and deep into October. Mitch and Wilma, hurricanes you hope you never see up close and personal unless you are a seasoned storm chaser.

https://www.wdrb.com/weather/wdrb-weather-blog/mitch-and-wilma-looking-back-at-two-powerful-late-season-hurricanes/article_d94f6802-924d-11ef-b8c0-a70f196b68b0.html

What will be later this week will be known next week.

Models have been crappy and less than stellar in sniffing out development. There's a plethora of models now with the new AI models and everyone is playing with them as if they got bored with Mindcraft. Models are not video games they are suggestions to the people who run them as to what may happen with the info that was put in and sometimes they are good, sometimes one nails it and sometimes they are crappy.  Invest 91L, a "wave complex" with multiple parts not properly aligned stretched both vertically and horizontally drifting along at 5 to 10 MPH and not live up to any of the model runs, except for the ones that showed it might not make it at all. 

And, so here we are with an unfriendly Main Development Region, meager waves coming off at alternating latitudes of too high, too low, this one looks good, too high, too low. SAL, dry air and an odd alignment of meteorological aspects are making it a hard region to find development in. Mother Nature sometimes surprises us.

There are other areas such as close in off the coast, Upper Level Lows that can transition into tropical lows and the Caribbean that begins to wake up this time of year as well as the Gulf where Carib Canes usually move up into and it is very possible something will develop down the road and close in to landfall intensify into a strong contender for hurricane of the year. As did the 1921 Hurricane.

It is what it is.........

Enjoy the quiet time without NHC Cones leading to your door. But, do not think it's over. Do not eat all the hurricane snacks or return the items you thought you might need to Target. Do not spend the money you carefully put aside in case you need to evacuate up the Interstate for a trip to Vegas to see the Wizard of Oz at the Sphere......save your money. If you don't need to evacuate there will be incredible shows there in November and December, trust me.

Have a great day, have a good week and stay vigilant and watch for any chances that might be going on in the tropics, especially if in an area that may down the road impact your beautiful home.

Enjoy the weather. Enjoy other hobbies. Monday Night Football is on tonight and I don't care who is playing, because I love football. Also because my two "home" teams are the Dolphins and the Carolina Panthers so having back up teams to follow is good for my mental health. I love Geology. I love Maps. I need new clothes for this winter I decided, I may go shopping. 

Sweet Tropical or Snowy Dreams...whatever you wish for ... may it come true.

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Ps will forever love this silly song. Used to watch it my daughters sing along to it being silly and it made me smile and feel silly and it's upbeat and I don't care......Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature does and she always has a way of surprising us!

Ps living in the Carolinas.

I also get Winter and I do have Winter Dreams

And a son out West I really want to see.