10PM 70 MPH WSW at 10 MPH Tropical Storm Nicole Intensifying! Expect Hurricane Intensity & FAST Mover After Florida

 

70 MPH

984 MB - WSW at 10 MPH

If you are in or near the cone prepare.

Remember wild weather will be far from the cone...

...cone tracks the center.

This is not Your Momma's Tropical Storm.

Night... 

***

Remember impacts will be WAY OUTSIDE this cone.

But the cone follows the center.

And people want to see it.

 Nicole stronger.

Cone a bit further South.

It's degrees.

And it can change on the next run.

This is my issue with the media and I'm going to be honest as I'm annoyed. I watched 3 different networks show the cone and tell people how the track in three days changed and "now it will" be closer or further away from said town.  This is wrong, just wrong. It's important to preface everything with "be aware it can easily change but the Cone at 4 PM shows it may be here faster and further West, again check back for any changes" but instead they announce future track features such as "amount of rain we will get" as if it's carved in stone and they threw away the chisel, shut down the models and it's a done deal. 

Every single hurricane, be it in Miami or Raleigh, I hear on air mets rush to deliver good or bad news to the viewing public, including what will happen in 3 days. That's wrong. Show the cone, remind them it changes in real time (and has on each advisory in some way) so stop trying to inform a viewer exactly how much rain they will get 3 days out. Just stop. Be honest, it's a moving target.

The track at 4 PM is a bit  lower and a bit further out. Within the general consensus there is much disagreement on exact track. It's still forming into a strong Tropical Storm only 10 MPH from Hurricane. Many on air mets like to talk confidently, that's good but when they tell you "THURSDAY YOU WILL HAVE LESS RAIN THAN WE THOUGHT" it's a statement vs saying "the forecast today implies that we may  not get as much rainfall on Thursday, but know that can change" they want to look right all the time. I trust meteorologist who show they are human and remind people that forecasts are subject to changes.

Done with that rant! Seriously this is why people get confused as they listen to a meteorologist stay with confidence as if they had personally created the world in 7days and next model run the track changes and the next model run the track changes, sometimes up until landfall as we saw with Ian. Just stop, be honest and remind viewers this is the best guess we have at this time and it could change, but prepare!

Doesn't Nicole look formidable here?

Bit bottom heavy but incredibly developed...

...compared to yesterday.

 

Somewhere from WPB to Melbourne ...

... each advisory will change in subtle ways.

Impacts over a wide area.

Models clustered fairly tight.

On approach to FLorida.

And on it's super fast trip to the NE.

Models fairly well in argreement.

Stay tuned for updates 

Compare and contrast the cone with the one below.

Below is 10 AM.

***

Moving West 50 MPH Winds.

Note 2 parts to this track.

Movement towards and over Florida.

Then... From Georgia to CT!

In one day.

1 day!

Not much time to prepare if this verifies.

So pay attention NOW.

Tropical Storm Winds...

..racing NE across the whole East Coast.

Call it a TS, call it "like a Noreaster"

The name is Nicole.

If this verifies Nicole will be remembered!

For more than a Nov landfall on Florida.

For what it's worth the center of the Cone pulled North.

Melbourne area now most likely.

As always expect this to change but prepare!

My 2nd concern is UP the coast.

Actuallythe whole coast.

IF this cone verified it would go thru DC

NY into NE.

Again things change.

Nothing is carved in stone.

it is just now evolving into a Tropical Storm.

Forecast to be a Hurricane.

Always expect change.

But don't ignore this please!

Center obscured a bit.
Convection to the N

There she is!

Take her seriously even tho it's November!

* * *

10 AM Advisory.

Having connectivity problems as I said earlier today (on multiple levels) so updating the blog now while I have WIFI and will do so later. Now is the time to ... vote if you did not do so. Then go get what you need if you are in the path of Nicole in Florida and up the road from Georgia to DC to NE realize you may get one fast moving visitor with winds that could bring down trees, cause destruction and must be taken seriously!

Adding info as I can. 

Keep checking in.

Thanks.

9 AM

Hurricane Warnings Up Now For FL East Coast

First off having connectivity problems this morning so doing this by phone and it’ll be mostly words. Words matter. Especially with a developing tropical system that should be a hurricane and surprise many. 

After days of looking messy and hard to find our Subtropical Storm Nicole developed a solid core last night. Presentation on Earthnull was perfectly round and it was obvious winds were picking up. It’s currently 50 mph. 

I have a few issues here and not hearing much on this and too much attention on what is a subtropical and as always everyone wants to know who gets the center. 

Weather impacts are huge and diverse. 

Surf and Beach Erosion 

Everyone gets this from Outer Banks to South Florida. There’s a cold front in the Carolinas. A strong high is building in to its North and the circulation to its North s funneling wind onshore. The winds from a tropical system flow counterclockwise and the winds around the top of Nicole combine with the wind around the high creating a funneling effect. 

Ever stand between 2 tall hotels at the beach and you feel the “wind tunnel” effect? This is what the beaches will be feeling from Carolinas down to Miami. I’m not talking Hurricane winds. Wind Tunnel onshore winds tearing at structures along the coast such as piers and homes. 

Especially concerned about places such as Daytona Beach where hotels sit on a small ridge usually close to the beautiful beach. Ian carved away the ridge, bashed in the sea wall that protects stores, businesses and homes. 

As Nicole approaches to the South of there the surging ocean will attack that particular area. 

Add in actual hurricane force winds in the core of Nicole. Again I said Nicole developed a beautiful center last night (beautiful as in perfect) and as Nicole moves over the very warm waters of the Gulfstream in intensification mode it’s a set up ripe for strengthening and Hurricane impacts. Don’t be fooled by the calendar a hurricane in Florida is a hurricane. 

How much wind and weather impacts WPB South is a question and much depends on how much of a DIP Nicole does as the High digs in and pushes Nicole South of West … how much is everything. Then as it feels the pull of the front it pulls up in latitude. Where and when that happens dictates how far South destructive impacts occur. 

This also shows the exactitude of track across Florida. And again any intense wind or rain will create problems and set back the recovery from Ian. Power grids and weakened structures can only take so much weather before they give way and obviously we are all hoping that doesn’t happen. 

Naples? FMB? Tampa?

Inland cities such as Orlando aren’t used to strong impacts from the East and honestly strong tropical winds slam and pull at the large Live Oaks in the Central Florida area. Limbs break, crashing down on other structures. Where Nicole is going there aren’t coconut palms that snap in the tropical wind. 

Where it crosses and moves is working the cone but still up for grabs in exactitude. It’s currently developing and will continue to do so… prepare as if you’ll feel it’s wrath. 

Then a huge concern I’m not hearing a lot about. The current cone has Nicole RACING from Georgia to Virginia as if it’s caught a bullet train!

Think Hazel in forward speed. Check the points in the cone after Florida. Warp Speed! 1938 New England Hurricane type forward speed  if the current NHC forecast verifies  

When you add fast forward speed to strong tropical winds the impact of the system is magnified! There’s also the threat of tornadoes especially where these two entities meet!

People wait to see the storm form, the eye pop out, the impacts along the way before they jump into crisis mode and for people after Florida that may be too late to prepare properly  more on that later  

Lastly it is Election Day and people are distracted I’m concerned too many will underestimate the fury of Nicole as it intensifies and the front interact  

Pay attention to NHC and your local NWS they are doing a bang up job of trying to properly advise you with a difficult storm at complicated times  

Years ago no one would have seen it coming …

So again pay attention, prepare for the worse and expect that and give thanks if you don’t get much! Because Nicole is going to impact most of Florida and a good part of the Eastern coast in multiple ways at different times  

Category 2 possible?

Sure…. If Nicole hits that sweet spot with 85 degree hot water and a transformed excellent tropical structure  

Expect changes  Pat attention and treat NHC like your best friend… check in with them often!

Hopefully the connectivity issues will be fixed  Either way I’m on Twitter nonstop all day  

Below you can see how Nicole now looks more tropical  a ball of convection and in NC weather segments are now watching carefully!

Perfect core developing 

Actually races way past Virginia…

I will update later 

Thanks for your patience 

Prepare and take it seriously!

Besos BobbStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram