Could Invest 98L Be Nicole? 90% in 5 Day for Development of Florida System Bringing Gales UP the Coast to OBX (& VA) & Possibly Becomes a Hurricane. Stay Tuned.

 

From Zoom Earth.

They do a great job.

Invest 98L now live, recon going in!

90% in 5 day, 70% in 2 day.

There's a system behind the discussion from the NHC but we are only going to deal with this system that is now red "anyday" on the map above and is forecast to impact a whole lotta of places from FLORIDA and on up through the Carolinas. There is still a question if it crosses Florida or nicks it a bit and bounces back out over the Atlantic while cruising up through Carolinas or along the coastline. A whole lotta of "or" going on with this one and the biggest one is will this be subtropical OR a Hurricane.

Mike is talking and his graphic is good.

So using it as it fits into my blog today.

Note the arrows oin N FL onshore winds.

Gale force winds....

I figure out what I want to say then look for pictures to support my thoughts.  Across the top of this Low (of some kind) is a strong, wild fetch of wind moving in pounding the beaches from Florida north.  Note where the coastline curves in? That's the Georgia Bight ...no not "bite" but it does look as if something took a bite out of the coastline. 

All the models show a hook.

Kind of like a dance step.

Left, dip, right, up.

Andy Hazelton explains this well.

Again the word "complex" used.

Basically it gets under a ridge........

..and the ridge zooms it to Florida.

BIG QUESTION...

Tropical (tightly compact weather)

Subtropical (big, strong weather far from center)

I used the AccuWeather graphic as it best shows the large area of landscape that could feel impacts from this system. It could be Nicole, unless NHC uses that name for the other system in the open Atlantic, so will see what name it gets when it gets it but for now it's Invest 98L. Strong surf and beach erosion brings down structures (piers/houses) on the beaches and too many people drown thinking they can swim a bit in the surf even though they are told not to. IF it becomes a hurricane, even a Cat 1 hurricane, it could be quite a punch in the gut to parts of Florida that think they are immune to landfalls as "everything curves away" but there is always an exception to that comment and November often has a punctuation point and brings strange trackers.  Again I remind you of the track of Hurricane Gordon in 1994. A hurricane in November with uncertain steering currents. November hurricanes bring not just rain/wind/surf but often tornadoes when the ultimately strong cold front grabs it so know this is weather across the board of all types in lots of places!

And the reason they zig zag is.......

a front approaches.

They miss the front.

They catch the next one.

Lots of possibilities in November....

...when it's 80 degrees one day and 50 another.

That's it. Know it's there. The details will be pinned down over the next few days, over the next 12 to 24 hours the models will offer a few solutions and as it develops it'll be easier to be sure what it'll do and it'll be way better once the recon goes in and gathers data. Especially needed is the recon that samples data from around the system and out ahead of it. This isn't forecast to be Ian and we aren't sure if it goes tropical (Hurricane) or subtropical but it should be Nicole, unless the name is used for the 97L that is out to sea and I'm not talking about that.

Check out Earthnull.

You can see the center trying to form.

Strong flow/winds.

And everything for now Westbound towards Florida.

Tight isobars into Carolinas.

Georgia always included ...obviously.

Again Mimic shows it well.

And the high to the North....

Slides in to the West......

...and eventually gets picked up.

Stronger front down the road.

ELECTION DAY.

Could this impact places in FL

This is a good reason why early voting works!

I voted early...

Wilmington NC has Gale Warnings up.

Charleston too!

Know we have a pressure gradient.

High to North.

Developing system to the South.

Wind funnels in like a wind tunnel.

Miami home of the NHC

Watching the NHC

Miami North somewhere....

...could get a Hurricane.

Stay tuned.

Keep watching!

As NHC says ...check with your local NWS!

Put "Charleston NWS" in your browser.

That easy.

Again steering currents extremely weak TODAY but that'll change down the road. Since I began this blog the sun was out, clouds rolled in, then the sun came out. I'm going out later and I'll be doing stuff :) so if I have to I'll update from the road. I update faster on Twitter in real time, that's why I like Twitter as it's fast, it flows and you can find what you need. Easy to jump on and jump off, on Facebook I get lost reading things about people and places I don't really care about but are in my feed for some reason. Instgram is a blur of click click as I check up on family and friends fast. Twitter, for all its pros and cons, is a fast easy place to find the news or weather or sports data you are looking for and ignore the rest if you want. Just my thoughts as someone who used to report news once upon the time before I switched over to being obsessed about weather :)

Ps.... You know it's getting serious when my kids start reading my blog and the local weather guy in NC on Spectrum News goes straight to the discussion about the weather from our developing system!!

Sweet Tropical Dreams (or Cold Wintry Dreams...)

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instgram whatever but also weather.

great song, good link...........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=te7bbWBXusk