Updated! 3 PM Hurricane Martin Joins Hurricane Lisa...... Down the Road (Nicole Next Name) Yellow Area 20% Weather Maker for Florida, Carolinas Messy Wind Maker Along the Coast ... High Surf Possible, Beach Erosion Should Nicole Form

 

Note how the yellow circle curves left...

And Hurricane Bookends!

Martin got his hurricane wings!

Forecast to be 105 MPH in the N Atlantic.

Because it's 2022....

Models for Lisa

More confusion on long term track...

...it could fall apart and die.

or it could find new life.

As for new life..........

This area, now leaning left, could become Tropical

Or it could become Subtropical

If and when it forms.

Models are always running.

Updating in real time.

This would be Tuesday.

Wait it gets better....

Or Thursday the Low is in the E GOM

So again I'm going to remind you that until something forms or at least shows up at the party it's all speculation and every changing model forecasts. The set up is ripe for development within that yellow grid the NHC has on it's page and with each update it leans more to the left meaning a landfall or land interaction somewhere near Florida. Depending on movement it hovers around or over Florida or it moves up the coast towards a front and makes a run up the coast or along the coast.

There's nothing there currently.

Let alone a center.

So just know this could happen.

Actually up close and way too personal...

There's a little wrinkle there in the force.

Perhaps down the road it ends up here.

Until then..... remember...

Hurricane Season isn't over!

There's a very long range model that actually shows that.

NEVER trust long range models.

Especially the GFS always dreaming up Canes.

But it does have one there Mid November.

If that happens...

..the GFS should get a blue ribbon!

Keep reading....

the message is things always change.

But consistency is big.

Keep watching..

Hurricane Season ends November 30th for a reason!

* * * 

Martin top right 65 MPH TS

Hurricane Lisa about to make landfall. 75MPH.

Lisa itsy bitsy tightly wound up!

In the tropics location matters more than size, so when a small hurricane is making landfall it's way more important than a large storm only 10 mph less in intensity out at sea not bothering anybody. 

Showing the track here for Martin, as it may go somewhere but it's a lesson in November. It looked as if it was going to go one place, then it backtracks and changes direction. This is common in November systems as they form and move in a time of flux when cold fronts move fast, slow down, warm air comes along for a week or so and then a cold front jerks the cold back down and grabs the storm and swings it away.

See the similarity with Lisa and the models: "I'm going to go North into the Bay of Campeche, I'm going into the Gulf of Mexico ...oh oh help me ... no falling back into Mexico" 

It's just that time of year where the steering currents are far from set in stone. And, that's why I wrote for two or three days to remember that nothing is set in stone. I knew this was going to be an issue and it may continue to be an issue with our Yellow Circle 20% that looks to form from the Carib, cross North across the Islands North up towards Florida (Bahamas obviously gets some) and then along the coast towards Carolina.

GFS for Monday... 

Large amorphous area of convection.

Like a stream of weather....

....careening around into something.

One of those "slingshot" systems.

Then Tuesday GFS on Windy

Note the size of this...

...more subtropical than tropical.

(weather far from center)

Problematic.

Why?

Those storms along the coastline of the Georgia Bight (from Daytona FL to OBX) are circulating around, training in rain with some wind and that's a recipe for high surf, beach erosion and troubled waters.

Small center just off Daytona Beach area.

Daytona/Jax

Charleston getting slammed with rain.

Charleston floods really easy...

Thursday... oh my goodness!

Virginia Beach getting some.

Oh look...there's something East of it.

To the NW you see the front.

Like the cavalry racing in to save the day.

Just a note on Friday look at the weather mix on display!

SNOW!

So again NOTHING IS SET IN STONE! This is the model forecast today and it will change, they always do. DO NOT expect this to play out exactly this way this far out. But this was a lesson in what is a messy, huge subtropical storm that is supposed to form and cause heavy weather for Florida, Georgia, Carolinas and all the way up to Virginia Beach!  It's not a tropical system at this point. Could that change? Things can always change. Let's say it comes together more, sits over the Gulfstream and forms a tighter core. In truth there are a whole bunch of different names the NHC and NWS can use to describe "not a tropical system" but yes a big weather make and very typical of early November. Wow, it's really November :) 2022 has been on warp speed mode in my mind.

Again Windy has filters.

I used rain and wind earlier.

This is the WIND filter up above.

This shows the problem we could have...

That heavy rain (orange/purple/pinks) remains...

...offshore slamming WIND along the coastline.

Wind, surf, tides and rain.

Not a pretty set up.

Might be Nicole.

Time will tell.

Again not impt where the center will be...

..important where the wind and rain will be!

Stay tuned.

I'll update later

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

or snowy dreams ;)

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather.

Instagram whatever!

Coast of Carolina... great song.

Applies here.

Daytona to Wilmington getting windy and weather...

...if the models are correct!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95cvvG_U_jE

GFS