Hurricane Harbor: UPDATED! 9PM. New Yellow Circle in Carib Moving N (Land Threat for US) Invest 96L in ATL Now TS Martin - And, Lisa Now Goes into the BOC. As I Said... Expect Change, Nothing Carved in Stone.

So as of 2 PM a yellow circle was introduced on the NHC Main Page at 20%. Three hours earlier at 11 AM they introduced Martin in the Atlantic that was yesterday morning a yellow circle with 20%, not so say tomorrow our new disturbance will be at 70%. Lisa, a very small tropical storm is now forecast to make landfall just North of Belize or near the border and it's future track seems to have been changed to "getting into the Bay of Campeche" as seen in the models below

The majority of models definitely take it NW into BOC.

And this is what I mean by....

...nothing is carved in stone things change.

My theme the last few days here.

And, I did think this was possible ...

..that's why I reminded you all.

Adding to what else is new mix of the day.

The area I spoke on got a yellow circle.

The area in tune with November in the tropics.

This is the most consistently active area in the Atlantic Basin in November, and the area in the Caribbean moving North towards the Bahamas could form into a storm that either rides up the coast or parallel and either way no matter what it does the onshore winds from Florida to the Carolinas will be steady and intense. That also means beach erosion and being extremely careful at the beaches if it stays offshore. Some models take it onshore... but we can wait for some more model runs and talk on this tomorrow.

I went out to vote today and afterwards spent some time at Crabtree Mall. The colors of the trees were incredible at the voting site as were the amount of trees probably killed to make all those signs. Seriously, there were more signs up this election than I have ever seen and that is saying a lot considering it's not a Presidential election even. Inside the building where people vote there was an actual line of people waiting to get their ballot. Both parties I am sure will claim victory based on that, but my advice is if you are going to vote... vote early as I imagine it will be hectic and chaotic on election day.

The complex where I live is trying to fix the main water line so water was turned off today (as it was Friday) and they will turn it off tomorrow as it seems they have to move a tree and let the electric company deal with underground wires. I had a friend from FPL who always said as much as people want underground wires they are more trouble than they are worth, much easier for lineman to do work on wires than moving underground wires around. I'm not sure if that's true and note he was a lineman so he did have a proprietary interest in wires vs underground electric!!

Today I did Sephora.

I did Victoria's Secrets.

Barnes and Noble.

What'll I do tomorrow?

Maybe just stay home.

Time will tell.

And time will tell if we have Nicole.

Being honest, Lisa is a very small storm and small storms are able to ramp up faster than large ones. So it's possible that Lisa will make landfall as an even stronger storm than was forecast yesterday. Again, CHANGE is the name of the game in November in 2022! As of 5 PM the current forecast is for Lisa to be 90 MPH. Martin is staying mostly out to sea, we will see on the end game later to see if it finds land in the North, North Atlantic. Stay tuned..........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3mJkSqZbX4

This is 96L in the Atlantic.

Red 70%

And it probably gets a name soon.

Has it's on "track map" up on NRL already.

Not threatening anything but starting here today.

Because the theme today is change.

Changes often happen in real time.

Yesterday morning I had the hardest time writing about Lisa as it was bugging the hell out of me that the NHC had not moved this area's chances up of development from low yellow. The Earthnull, seen above, was a very compelling image and yet as the attention was on developing landfalling Lisa the last few days and Yellow Fella was out at sea it obviously was not much of a threat to anything but ships at sea but still it bugged me. Honestly it's looked better than 95L for the last few days until 95L pulled it together enough for it to be Lisa for Halloween! And, Lisa is a threat in many ways and the larger, tighter system previously holding at low yellow chances was not. I let it go. But it bugged me. Focus on what's important and that was Lisa, ignore what could be Martin out at sea.

The point here I am driving home is that things change in real time and nothing is ever really set in stone except for the 2 or 3 day and even then how often has a line of storms produced a small local mean tornado and not only was there not a tornado watch but the rain wasn't supposed to be severe? Things change in real time.

What really changed?
Compare and contrast.

Lisa still headed towards Belize.

But models show some chances of BOC action.

Does Lisa die over Central America and Mexico?

Or does it crawl onto a beach in the EPAC

Or does it's remnant moisture get into the BOC?

Which is it?

EPAC storm?

BOC wanderer?

Death over land?

And, again now there's a track map...

...for yesterday's yellow circle in the ATL.

Things change.

That's my point.

Remember a forecast is only as good....

..as the next forecast.

Subtle changes extrapolated over time...

... can change the end of the story.

So today this is what's happening in the tropics.

Gotta love Mike's juxtaposition.

Two things to note.

7 day rain forecast tells a tale.

You see a front in the NW, a front across the Middle of the Country and "oh what's that off the SE coast" ??

November 7th there's a Low off Florida.

At the tail end of a trof like feature...

... you know at it's base.

If you watch the 5 panels you see something else.

The High anchored over the GOM...

fades away.

Rain chances in Florida go up in the 5 to 7 day

It's logical for some of the moisture from Lisa to get into the BOC/GOM and up into Texas and it's also possible some of the moisture might get into the EPAC. Time will tell. Nothing is stagnant, the atmosphere is always changing and rearranging. And, yes we can see much further into the future than we used to but still change happens. And, then that change is incorporated into the next model runs and you get the idea.

Little circulation off Cape Kennedy ;)

And, other areas out at sea.

Wait and see.

Keep watching!

Yesterday's blog was about the reality that the Hurricane Season was not done with us yet and we need to watch closer in down the road for possible action close to our shores. The truth about the long range GFS is that it always shows something (has a strong psychological need to please ...) but the location of said storm dances around. It's onto something, but what isn't exactly clear. In real time it appears the same way our old yellow fella is now glowing red with it's own track map up on NRL. Just as fast something could appear off the SE coast or in the Caribbean in November.