Hurricane Harbor: September 2021 Hurricane Season - Presented to You By the Folks At Bedrock Weather Center! Lots of Fruity Colors But Most Not Living Up to the Expectations by the Models!

The Nicholas Remnants seem permanently attached to this map. I'm not saying there is not weather there but in the old days when it was dead it was dead. 2021 in the tropics is a lot like One Life to Live. I keep hoping Nicholas comes back to life with his wife he lost when she fell over the falls in Brazil or somewhere and their miracle child is in her arms! It's not like there's huge storms going on there and they want us to know its from the remnants of Nicholas. So why is it still being shown?

The huge closed Low Pressure Swirl...

...is 96L shown below.

You know the red pebble off the Carolinas above.

What's up with that?

Nice circulation but lacks convection.

Far out in the Atlantic is the orange pebble.

Perhaps it's too big.

Nice big envelope. Lacks convection also.

Looks worse on Earthnull.

As for the lemon pebble by Africa....

It's discenable but not impressive.

Waves do look good over Africa ....

...yet they are fizzling fast like they normally do in June.

The models for 95L are shown above.

It was named before 96L as models were excited.

95L did not live up to it's expectations.

96L, much like another wave that models forecast to be so strong so fast it took off to the NW before 40W, is not living up to it's early model forecasts. They do show it coming close to the Islands and the model that obviously sees it as weak takes it West into the Islands, whereas all the other models have it racing after 96L that had weaker model support and got it's name later than 95L. This has been a confusing hurricane season at times - hasn't it? Models have done a bad job at realistically figuring out which waves coming off of Africa will develop into a Hurricane, and missed some of the ones that formed close in.

I mentioned it late on Wednesday on Twitter.

It's just interesting and noteworthy.

While the NHC is ignoring that consistent moisture in the Gulf of Mexico, models seem to not be interested, our purple and blue blob map that shows where something could form has a purple splotch. The convection is gone today but what is there is a general gyre that hopefully does not produce any storms. But it spins quite well and makes you wonder what will happen next in the tropics.

Link to the loop that shows the very broad, gyre like spin.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

So the NHC has the page for the 5 day lit up like a Fruit Loops Christmas Tree, yet nothing really is happening. Lots of possibilities and yet most of these waves are not living up to their potential. I've read many reasons offered as to why during the peak of the season we cannot get a tropical wave to spin and form into a meager Tropical Storm. For many that is good news, yet it's premature to say that the season is over. Yet, everyone online is talking about October Hurricane History as September of 2021 obviously isn't climatologically normal. Big surprise. What is normal these days?

Being honest here. I saw this bar on sale for like .50 cents and I was curious. I figured for that price I could buy it and throw it away if it was bad. And, oh my goodness was it bad! Not because it was white chocolate, as I generally like good white chocolate and while I'm more a Cocoa Pebbels girl I figured why not buy it, eat a cube and then offer it to my husband to finish. Marriage is a lot like a form of a diet, if you play it right you only eat half of the enticing junk food you buy.

First of all this was NOT good white chococolate! It has a plastic sort of taste as if they melted plastic and added sugar. I could never really get into the Fruity Pebbles part because the scent from the fake "FRUITY PEBBLES FLAVORING" was something akin to edible room freshners. Took me a long time to get the scent out of my nasal regions; I think a small part got up into one of my sinuses that actually can rarely smell anything but trust me this was like WHAM WOW EWW! Anyone ever eat Sweet Tarts as a kid? Or perhaps those fizzy sugar things your parents said you should not be eating? Yeah, something like that mixed into a sugary plastic mess being sold as a CANDY BAR! This was basically like if you had inhaled those little Fruity Fizzies your parents told you not to buy, but the cute kid in middle school ran to the gas station to buy you one in what is basically a sneaky, but helpful way of flirting in 7th grade.

Stay tuned. I'm guessing something will get named soon unless the NHC walks the percentages down slowly hoping no one will notice.

SALIENT POINT!!!

The BIG PROBLEM HERE... is the recurving out to sea scenario for 95L is only based on 96L saying "follow me out to sea" and 95L being stronger than it currently is. IF 96L doesn't amount to much and 95L is still on the map when 97L becomes an Invest we have to worry about a more WESTERN scenario and therefore becoming more of a landfalling threat because it didn't follow the plan to be a fish storm following another fish storm. Perhaps fish is out of style these days?

Not sure but we will discuss those October storms soon enough. 2021 is moving fast and every time you blink it's a new month. Don't get me wrong we could use some quiet time in the tropics now to rest up for October, but it bugs me when models are consistently wrong and people have such short attention spans these days that they forget there was supposed to be a few named storms that did not happen.

I'm sure the Cocoa Pebble Candy Bar was a hit. I didn't notice it on sale by the checkout. I did buy a Cocoa Pebble Lipstick Gloss at Ulta but it smelled better than it looked!