Hurricane Watch up for TS Nicholas. Developing Storm Hugging the Coast But Bringing Tropical Misery to Texas and Beyond!

Short blog this morning, I'll write a longer blog later today regarding models for two systems that could be problems down the road. But, currently we have front and center in the Western Gulf of Mexico developing Tropical Storm Nicholas. It's growing in size and strength in that the wider it gets the more areas geographically can be impacted by it's deep convection.  The NHC issued a Hurricane Watch for part of the area, yet they still currently, conservatively keep it at 70 MPH which again is conservative. There are a lot of questions on structure, yet the track seems locked in. I'm choosing my words carefully.

Again I like this map more than the regular Cone.

Use it as it shows you more details.

Salient details you may need.

 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/115300.shtml?gm_track#contents

Understand it's moving within the cone.

But where the exact center is or remains is a question.

I hate these GOM storms with uncertain behavior.

Usually they are the ones with the most dangers.,

And the reality is...the weather is moving in.

Moving in way in advance of landfall.

Currently the NHC has it at 60 MPH and I would not be surprised to see this become a hurricane. Large systems have their own concerns and can be problematic. But we have also seen too many developing storms, close in do awkward movement of center relocations (mid level, lower, upper... etc) yet within that cone the weather moves towards landfall and beyond. Again the beyond concerns me as a storm going up the Mississippi River creates inland flooding as well as river level problems down river.  More on that this afternoon. 

Elsewhere the 5 day shows the Bahama X at 50%

The African Wave is red on the 5 day.

Much to talk about on "down the road" but it's a waste of precious time today with a possibly, developing hurricane hugging the coastline feeding in tropical moisture from the hot Gulf of Mexico to discuss what if possibilities down the road for a storm that has not formed and is still over Africa. The Close in area in the Bahamas does have to be watched, but we can talk on that later today. 

For now if you live in the path of any of the weather concerns for Nicholas (flooding, tornadoes, high winds, torrential rains, etc) please pay attention to your LOCAL weather specialists who know your area the best from the National Weather Service to on air meteorologists you have learned to trust and online sources who have always helped you get through a hurricane.

Be back later today, 

Besos BobbiStorm 

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter usually weather, Instagram whatever

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBLboy3aXA0