Updated 5 PM - 70% Red Circle.... Texas Rain Train Coming. Does it Get a Name? African Wave Goes High Forecast to Stay Out at Sea... Larry Sliding by Bermuda Threatening Canadian Maritimes. Long Term Models Promise Scary Hurricane Off Florida & SE Coast on Every Other Run. FALL. Football and Hurricanes.
Just an update on our circles, now red.
Both at 70% in the 5 day.
So far no Invest but imagine eventually....
Monitor if it you live along the Upper GOM.
Otherwise nothing is threatening this weekend.
As for Texas.........
... models take it to Mexico or Texas.
Or both as some slide it up around the coastline.
One example is below.
Tuesday, the EURO.
Icon also likes this possibility.
Models are moody and change often.
Nothing has formed as yet.
Models better with a real center.
That's just the way it goes..
Keep reading from earlier today....
Putting this graphic up at the top.
Because it shows GOM rain.
With a name or without one....
Rain can be a big pain.
Remember that.
60% Orange in the BOC.
Mexico or further North?
There is a surface trough there and the game plan seems to be that this area that could develop, mixes it up with a surface trough and the mixture creates a rain game. Models are not currently bullish on strong winds, but the rain is an issue. Kind of reminds me of what became Mindy mixing it up with a frontal boundary. You see a pattern here? Hello September!
Often in September we expect African Waves to begin spinning and moving W or WNW towards the Islands. Oddly, we did that already earlier in the season when it was not Climatologically preferred, however there is something about 2021 that is punctuated by the unexpected. We did get a huge African Wave that turned into a gigantic, Major Hurricane that stayed gracefully out at sea only ruffling the palm fronds on Bermuda as it passed by moving towards ports to the far, distant North. We had an violent, Category 4 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico do a redux of Camille and slammed Louisiana back for a month of so trying to get power back; New Orlean Saints have left town and are working out in Texas!
And then suddenly, even though it was warned that flooding and flash flooding could happen, we ended up in the Mid Atlantic and New England with something akin to a 2021 Disaster Movie. And, again I mention that we are East Coast Loaded, in that even when a system hits in the Gulf of Mexico it ends up along the East Coast one way or ther other. Especially NOW because we haver FRONTS on the march. They may not be the strongest fronts, but a front on the move allows our tropical systems to leap towards them and mingle with them and run away with them. And, that only becomes more problematic as we move deeper into the Hurricane Season through September and into October.
Add witha La Nina developing currently this hurricane season to go way deep into October. Think of hurricanes like Sandy that went "boo!!" on Halloween!!
Back to Texas.
And remember what impacts Texas....
...often impacts Louisiana too!
Fronts push large hurricanes away ....
...keeping them out to sea.
Only sometimes depending where and when.
See Larry.
But down in the Gulf of Mexico...
...something wants to form badly.
It's not time yet as Larry needs to leave.
And the EPAC has had a wild ride this season.
A busy EPAC creates interference in the Carib/GOM.
Larry going to threaten places far to the North.
Not going to talk on Larry now.
Too much concern on Texas today.
Watch the loop below.
You can see in the loop above the EPAC hurricane made landfall and now is washing itself out. Larry is moving off stage to the right. There is a mixing of convection down in the Gulf of Mexico currently that is waiting for something to light it's fire. Depending on what exactly develops it is more likely to move towards Texas than simply Mexico. And, if it gets a name it's important to remember that the name of this game plan is rain for Texas. Look again at the 5 day rain profile and you see a tongue of, reds, oranges, yellows and golds in Fall Colors that represent tropical energy mixing it up with frontal boundaries.
If you look carefully there is a wave further out in the Altantic. The wave train is alive and well, even though they are not all spinning into hurricanes. It only takes one or two to suddenly have Irma and Maria or a Sandy like Matthew that exploded in the Caribbean and then moved North towards the East Coast.
Some models show development of this wave a week from now, but other models take an existing wave going under the radar and develop that one. It's September, this is the time for models to roll out possibilities.
The new wave off of Africa with ther red circle goes high and develops fast and is currently forecast to stay out at sea. The next wave is forecast to go low and needs to be watched. And some models are taking turns developing a weak, westbound wave into a monster like Hurricane off the coast of Florida way far down in the forecast period. I'm not ready to post a scary picture, but use your imagination!
A lot of football games end with a desperate quarterback making a Hail Mary pass down the field towards the receiver he has the most confidence in and sometimes, rarely more than usually, he catches the ball and as the clock runs out it's caught in the End Zone for a Touchdown and they win the game! It's rare that it works out but they keep throwing those Hail Mary Bombs into the End Zone and we all hold our breath for a few minutes waiting to see if this one is the one.
That is what happens as we move deeper into September and we don't need long range models to tell us that we could have a hurricane off Florida or the East Coast in ten days doing that coastal dance we've seen quite often the last few years.
So buckle up!
Don't eat the Twinkies and Pringles from your Hurricane Supplies because on September 9th there is no threatening hurricane moving WNW towards Florida or the East Coast. Don't splurge on the Plaintain Chips becauset there is no hurricane moving North across Cuba towards South Florida. Do what you gotta do and bide your time and hide your hurricane supplies from anyone in your family who likes to nosh late at night. Keep watching!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter is usually weather and Instagram whatever..
posted by BobbiStorm @ 4:26 AM
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