UPDATED 2 PM Invest 97L & 3 Areas Being Watched 40% Each - Wednesday 8/18 I Said Providence RI Would See Henri as a Tropical Storm. Before the Official Forecast. Where is IDA? Caribbean Wave Needs to Be Watched for Possible BOC or GOM Action. Watch in Texas Just In case... Wave off Africa. What's With Convection Off Carolinas. Tennessee Tragedy... Henri's Remnants Raining Still.
As of 2 PM.
All 3 areas have 40% chances in the 5 day.
Currently yellow in the 2 day.
Note I pointed them out at 8 AM in the blog below.
Note I pointed them out at 8 AM in the blog below.
As always purple comes before yellow...
...on the tropical spectrum for deveopment!
Immediate concern is this one...
...models show development and have for a while.
This is the Icon for Friday below.
The Icon that has been doing well lately.
GFS and EURO below for later in the forecast period.
Over the weekend.
Remember models change often on each run.
You watch the trend and ensembles.
You watch the trend and ensembles.
And you wait and see where they come together.
Such a track could bring this sytem into the Gulf of Mexico, though it would be hard for it to move towards Texas or more North without a strong front to dip down and catch it. Currently fronts seem to be weaker and that would allow it to move further West or WNW around the strong High Pressure! Early discussion in it's earliest stage. The wave closest to Africa is seen to be a Fish storm but I never scream Fish until it's wandering up in the North Atlantic.
Versus a westbound tropical wave with a low already attached!
Or something forming at the end of a frontal boundary.....
Again the X is where they are watching now...
..the lassoed orange circle is where it could actually form.
Looks like an orange tennis racked... it's the formation zone.
As for the center circle off the East Coast far out at sea there may be more to see down the road with this one. I've watched this area for days as there is something there to watch and you add in additional moisture that could wrap into it and it's a currently active area as it's the region that gave birth (more or less) to Henri it's worth watching it and waiting to see how things evolve! Introduce a tropical wave into the mix and it could ignite a new tropical problem once again forming to the right of Bermuda but where would it go?
As for Invest 97L the image above is from Zoom Earth, an incredible site you can use in a multitude of ways. Note it is in the same area Grace was when it came off of Africa.
Please keep reading if you did not as it was written at 8 AM and is releavant as I began with the map that shows the purple splotches of percentages for tropical development as the NHC had not yet crowed the Caribbean wave with the higher chances I felt it deserved. It's a great resource looking for areas of possible developments. As the song at the bottom implies...no the tropics are not slowing down and we need to finish any preparations we have on finalizing our hurricane plans and supplies for the rest of the Hurricane Season!
8 AM Discussion on the tropics.
Let's start with the purple splotch map.
It hightlights where yellow pops up at NHC map.
Small splotch off the coast of the Carolinas (okay Virginia too, yes I see you) is the remnants from the moisture left behind by Henri also connected to the remnants of what devastated a small beautiful community in Tennessee. Weather is local always because at some point you focus on what seems to be the bigger priority to the most people when writing a blog. Journalism 101 the first question on a pop quiz before the lesson was "there's a plane crash in a distant country with many people feared dead and a 3 alarm fire on mainstreet which do you cover first? If you live in the town with a 3 alarm fire that is the answer as it impacts your town, your readers and it's important to disseminate that information. Most people obviously failed the pre quiz but did not fairl the test.
Henri impacted a large part of the East Coast in various ways and it needed to be covered here more than Grace that was a very beautiful spinner who just basically went West all the way to the Pacific where she now is Marty. Yes, Mexico has really high mountains yet they didn't phase Grace much other than a burp and a dizzy spell and then she gathered her wits about her in the Pacific and was reborn again, renamed and is spinning again.
The Flash Flood in Tennessee was a FLASH FLOOD meaning out of nowhere a small, horrific event not noticed in advance by the NWS that did predict rain but not of epic proportions and to them; that flash flood was not just the story of the week or year but probably the decade. The loss of life horrible and as horrible as the loss of life is it is always more horrific when you hear two toddlers were grabbed by the flood waters out of their father's arms and drowned in flood waters. Flash Flooding is the worst as there is no time to prepare and it is more like a a sudden Earthquake than even a Tornado because there's signs visible that a tornado could form on any given day in most cases.
So now we look at the tropics to give a heads up to what may be coming next as New York City tries to clean up and linemen try to put CT and RI back together again. Like that song "After the Storm" it's all about clean up. Today in 1992 for me it was all about us preparing for Hurricane Andrew. Today in 2021 I'm highlighting what is next.
Far off to the East near Africa..
A strong wave off of Africa needs to be watched.
NHC gives it 30% in the 5 day.
Entering the Carib is a strong way with potential.
The NHC finally gave it a yellow circle. Also 30% in 5 days.
This wave has been interesting to watch. I have been watching it.
The NHC had been focusing on a wave forecast to be a Fish Storm swimming after Henri's wake in the Atlantic. However the wave of most interest this morning is the one now in the Caribbean as it's been consistently convecting and models finally caught on to the possibilities of it's westbound movement that could bring tropical headaches to any place from BOC (Tex/Mex) or even possibily pulling further to the North towards Texas. So that needs to be watched NOW, but the secondary wave should be watched as should the area off of the East Coast that's sitting over the Gulfstream and has already been dangerous and important in both Tennessee and with the strange formation of Hurricane Henri and it's hard to believe that's going to rain itself out though it would be really nice if it did!
So this is the place we need to watch in the same way a fire on main street in a small town needs to be covered as a story as per Journalism 101 which I did take where I was told not to use the word "which" but I use it anyway as that is my literary license. My degree is in English and my second degree is in International Relations though I do have work on a Masters in English (Creative Writing/Literature) but here we are and I'm sitting cross legged in bed wearing Victoria's Secrets light weight summer pajamas sipping a Colombe Coffee that was ice cold from my fridge writing about the tropics in a blog that many people read that I bgan back in 2004! Over 2 million people read this blog which is astounding in ways that I will not elaborate on but I will say "thank you" and that's to you know who you are...........
Life has a way of taking it's own course as the same way water finds it's way downhill in a Flash Flood and doesn't care whose lives get lost in the process. I'm remarried to my second husband living in North Carolina with children in New York, Miami and Seattle. We talk on Facetime which they control because they keep buying me the newest iPhone so I will be able to Facetime them often and I follow the weather and take you along with me in my online journal. I like Moto phones and use one as a secondary devide but I talk to the children on my iPhone 12 Pro Max and that's good.
It is truly mindboggling how so many people read a blog that was started impulsively when I was in a mood pissed off at my meteorological friends fighting with eachother on a message board a friend of mine runs and I kept writing for a few of my best friend, writer friends who enjoyed reading it more possibly than I enjoyed writing it.
So if you are still here...........................Thank you!
A tropical storm will form sometime in the next week or so most likely and it could impact the Gulf of Mexico, BOC and or Central America. Jamaica needs to watch out as they are in a hot spot this year.
Send money to any reliable charity to the good people of Tennessee who lived in a place where people woke up worrying what to make for dinner and never knew their kitchen would be torn off away from their house when their house was ripped off it's foundation carrying them along with it as they prayed in the attic of their homes and then screaming from their rooftop for help. Thank God many were saved, but way too many died and are still missing.
Epic historic rainfall has been the signature of August of 2021.
Andrew was a dry, mean storm and it's signature was the wind howling in the middle of the night, punctuated by the voice of Bryan Norcross talking us all through the storm from his bunnker in the studio staying on air with generator power while we lay in the dark listening to him on our battery powered radios. None of us had power for weeks afterward. Our lives had been forever changed by both the power and fury of Hurricane Andrew and the reality that sometimes the worst case scenario really does happen. Henri was NOT the worst case scenario but another weak system delivering rain from a tropical system and a frontal boundary dancing a dangerous dance with an Upper Level Low that picked it up from the coast and swirled it and dipped it back inland over New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvannia (including parts of Delaware as I had said would happen days ago) and it's still raining on it's way back out towards the ocean again.
On Wednesday I said Henri would impact Rhode Island with Tropical Storm force winds before the NHC had it in their forecast. It was a done deal to me when the NWS in Providence put it into their short term forecast. Another reason I say to watch your LOCAL NWS vs the NHC in that your local NWS is covering your home town not writing long discussion trying to verify their last advisory package and explain where the storm may go with an ever changing cone tugged this way or that. What the NHC does is golden from the perspective of the loss of life from the 1938 Hurricane in New England that did not have the same head's up warnings we have today. But your local National Weather Service is truly where the buck stops with relation to your own particular city. I did mention Hernri was a landfall threat for days but on Wednesday I knew it was a Rhode Island storm and if you were reading my blog then you would have known too!
Who knew at FIU I'd be writing a blog?
Who knew there would be blogs?
Well I always kept a diary.
And I always tracked hurricanes.
And spent much time at the ocean chasing.
But life takes it's own course.
Now I'm in NC watching Carolina Canes....
..in Miami those were the ones that got away.
1996 NC was where they were at.
2021 I live in NC - go figure.
That's Kharma!
Much love!!!
Give charity to those in need.
Keep watching those tropics!!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps Kind of odd that so few people know much about Rhode Island though it shows up in movies often yet sometimes they hide the location. The Great Gatbsy mansion in one version of the film was filmed on location in Newport not on Long Island and oddly most people have only seen Rhode Island up close and personal in movies like Me, Myself and Irene. Go figure. No the world ain't slowing down and neither is the Hurricane Season 2021!
Imagine 3 smart boys arguing about who was smarter??? Big smiles on that scene! My daughter cracked up in the movie when she saw that and laughed until she got home. What a merry-go-round ...this hurricane season has been and who knows where it will end? Ida next name up!
posted by BobbiStorm @ 7:20 AM
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