Waiting on Recon ... Does PTC 6 Become a TD Today? Fred Down the Road is in Store ... Track and Timing Important. Fast Mover, Lower Than Most Expected. New Wave Off Africa a Player Too. From NYC With Love
These are the facts above.
Recon is on the way into PTC6
Will they find what to upgrade?
Maybe.
As the sun rose on the Visible Imagery....
...we can see something is moving our way.
It looks good above but it's a bit short of TD status.
It looks crappy below.
The NRL site that I do love shows both the track and the problem. Six has been an upside down C for a while now, and that's because there is dry air on it's South side and it's having problems wrapping convection. It's also moving fast and is now deep into the Eastern Caribbean, not a friendly place for development. Some of the islands in this region actually have an arid desert like climate as they rarely get the rain that other places receive even though they are in the tropical Caribbean. So far this has been riding the more Southern side of the forecast envelope, not to say it will not lift at some point as cyclones tend to want to do if they can find a way. Note the more Northern curve at the end of the track map.
Again it's about how strong it becomes....
...and how fast it moves.
There's a window of opportunity.
As always timing is everything.
5 AM track map from the NHC.
Earthnull shows how deep into the E Carib it is.
This has passed the islands.
Not strong weather currently.
On the North edge there's weather.
Compare and contrast.
TS Kevin and TD12
Orange is tropical cyclone juice.
Blue is ewww way too dry.
The bottom line here is that we have that half moon, shaped structure that Jim Williams likes to call the Bat Symbol with Six and it's having problems wrapping. It's moving fast and that isn't helping it wrap. The Eastern Caribbean is a dry place for tropical systems to find moisture. The Mimic makes it look better than it does on other satellite imagery and the Dvorak (used to measure intensity often) looks horrible. If Recon can find a closed center most likely the NHC will upgrade at 11 AM if not they will send the planes in again, but either way the NHC keeps this as a weak storm most of the way for the next five days.
Depending on the track it takes it is possible it impacts land but which track within the tightly clustered model tracks does it take? Does it cruise across PR and flirt with the Bahamas while stair stepping it's way towards Florida or does it cross Cuba the way Elsa did and take aim at the West Coast of Florida? The track itself will make a big difference as some areas in that track are icy cold for tropical development and other areas warm, moist and receptive.
Currently it looks like an open wave trying to wrap, it's been working hard for days to wrap and has not possibly because it's having problems stacking, there's shear there and the dry air creating the upside down C look isn't helping it. Land interaction also makes a difference as always.
No one is talking Cat 2 hurricane with this system but you know if it stays alive and it seems to be able to stay alive then if it gets up into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico it could utilize that high humid octane fuel to ramp up stronger than the NHC currently forecasts.
Is this a GOM Fred or a Freddie cross over the state of Florida and zoom up along the coast. And, most people in Miami and the Keys need to watch this carefully, but currently it's really not much to write home about.
Good drink last night in a golden goblet.
Always love the orchid !!
Speaking of home... I'm trying to get back to North Carolina.
Things pop up in the tropics and in life. Bad situations that create problems and sudden happy surprises that open up opportunities. I have a son Levi who travels frequently in his work with Compass Realty and he was scheduled to give a seminar in Manhattan that I didn't know about until he texted me yesterday to say he was in The City and meet him for drinks. We did... it was really nice to sit up in on the Rooftop Bar at the SixtyLes and got the drink at the bottom of the menu, watched the sunset, enjoyed a nice quiet talk with my son and well SixtyLes PTC6 see the pattern here :)
@bobbistorm on Instagram
I'm blonde this week.
You just never know with me ;)
Naturally a brunette...
Fred should get named eventually.
And don't judge Fred down the road...
...by what it is in the dry East Caribbean.
My daughter is settled in, her friends came over last night and made a campfire and sang songs for her. My other daughter who lives in Brooklyn met us at Izzys BBQ in Crown Heights to say goodbye and getting ready to start the trip back to the Carolinas.
Worth mentioning the new wave off of Africa should be our next Invest, models play with that one though they keep the track lower than Fred may be but as it's still out by Africa and much can change before it gets to our side of the world. Many models had 94L curving up the in the Atlantic, missing the Islands completely while others went West. Models offer solutions, until a real solid closed center forms we are just shooting the tropical breeze.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
If you wanna move to South Florida :)
posted by BobbiStorm @ 5:31 AM
1 Comments:
Thanks BobbiStorm; I really enjoy your observations and explanations about hurricane season activity. I am learning a little bit more every year, and feel a bit more secure in making my own preparations. I like the personal touch you offer your readers. I am not usually the commenting type, but wanted you to know I appreciate the blog.
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