Hurricane Harbor: Updated! TROPICAL STORM IDA FORMS FROM TD9 in the East Carib. Louisiana Mississippi & NOLA Prepare for a Hurricane Down the Road.

Breaking News!

Recon finds TS winds.

We now have TS IDA.

5:40 PM

Cone going for Louisiana and Mississippi.

End Game.

Cuba gets landfall but depends where that is..

Land Interaction and shear is offset by ...

..a WARM EDDY!

That's what the NHC said.

Camille like track going over a Katrina like ...

...warm eddy.

The NHC has it near Cat 3 strength currently....

...in the forecast.

Currently weak and recon trying to get data.

But in the GOM after a WARM EDDY..

Could be a disastrous situation.

Keep reading please.

Thank you.

Prayers for those caught in Aghanistan!

Heavy news day....

But watching TD9 develop also.

3 PM Update.

Current look at the tropics.

I show the wide view as it is important.

Everything in the atmosphere is connected.

Everything in the atmosphere is connected and every system impacts or is impacted by other systems around it. Nora is in the EPAC her windfield is expanding as you can see in the image at the top. That greatly messes with a developing Tropical Depression and in the short term is having an impact. In the long term TD9 forecast to be a very strong hurricane becomes the stronger system as you can see from the graphic above that the NHC puts out for wind speed possibilities. It's common for weather people to love to look at the floater and if they stare at the floater and then the models they sometimes miss what is happening at the moment so it's important to go wide and then zoom in up close and personal.

Last night it looked like a Red Swan.

A long neck of convection headed up towards a head.

The ULL has been sucking in the convection feeding off it.

Kind of like a parasite.

As the sun rises we see they are separate...

...but oddly connected.

I was a little surprised the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Depression status early this morning as I thought they might put out a Potential Cyclone Cone (this is a perfect example for it's use) and didn't wait until recon went in. Dvorak is great, I use it all the time but we still are not 100% sure where the center as there are many factors inside a developing system and this is indeed a developing system. What it may be up in the Gulf of Mexico may be an Intense Hurricane Ida but currently it's still trying to come together. Recon was delayed today and didn't go out as expected due to weather problems, yes that can happen as even though they fly through hurricanes the weather where they take off can delay their take off.

One of the best ways we have to look down through the clouds and see the inner working of the wind field is Earthnull as shown above. You can also see while closed it has an odd signature on the Southen side.

This is a work in progress so as much as we can worry on a strong Hurricane Ida impacting New Orleans or Beaumont TX or Biloxi while possibly dumping huge amounts of rain on Cuba (landfall there first) and even the Florida Keys with distant rain ......................we have to deal with what it is currently and not get ahead of ourselves.

Everyone in Lousiana should be totally prepared and after last season they are way too aware that hurricanes can happen so I doubt there is any denial there vs a sense of deja vu shock.

I'm concerned about Cuba and honestly the Florida Keys as Key West is very far South and West into the Gulf of Mexico just North of Havana. Hopefully they will not have strong wind problems but could sheared moisture in the early stages of this storm train over the Florida Keys and South Florida before it comes together in the GOM and wraps up better and makes a beeline for it's chosen destination intensifying as it moves towards the coastline. I don't want to sound some all clear for Key West because everyone is screaming "NOLA!" or "Houston" as we will know for sure later.

Bottomline:

Everyone North of this system should take it very seriously. What it is today at this hour is not what it will look like Saturday evening or Sunday morning. My Momma taught me well that anytime you have a tropical system to the South of you... you don't take your eyes off of it, and her Momma who grew up in Florida also taught her that. It's a rule of thumb that no matter what the Cone shows if a tropical system is to the South of you ...then YOU monitor it and the information coming out of the NHC as well as your local experts!

Ps ... Do not ignore Invest 98L it's trying very hard to wrap up and stay low and I doubt it but I wouldn't rule out it stealing the name Ida from TD9 but I do not expect that to happen but Julian is in the wings one way or another.