Updated 10% Yellow Maybe Off the SE Coast. - 4th of July Tropical Message From a Miami Girl Living in the Carolinas. Save Unused Food You Bought for the 4th for Hurricane Season.

Low chances.

The area the models have showing.

8 PM NHC put up a yellow circle.

Off the East Coast.

Seen below as a purple splotch...

NHC says nothing doing for 5 Days.

Top Square there's convection.

Hot water and High Pressure.

A few areas to watch but nothing cooking.

Short and sweet here I'm going to point out 3 areas that are interesting to watch but there are many reasons not much will develop so it's best to be glad, deal with the heat if it's hot where you are in whatever way you can and know that patterns change and time is moving fast because it's 2020.

The waves drop into the Atlantic and fizzle.

Sometimes they fire up again.

So we watch them.

Waves are fun.

Not dangerous Category 3 Hurricanes.

The area in the Caribbean is interesting.

No real models do anything.

I've heard it's going West.

But parts of it are lifting North.

That's typical this time of year.

Nothing there now but rain.

High Pressure playing defense in GOM.

Lastly we come to the dying front.

The struggling stationary front.

Most common for systems to form there.

At the end of the frontal boundary.

Bottom Line:

1. You want to know what models say? 

Models are flakey and currently inconsistant. They blow up systems in the 7 to 10 day range in different places.  The ingredients are there but basically Momma knows she has sugar, flour and eggs but she ain't in the mood to bake a cake. Until this pattern breaks she's eating ice cream from the freezer out of the containter and ordering in pizza. 

2.  We are enjoying a nice lull in tropical activity and you should use this time wisely. If you bought too many sodas or drinks put them away for hurricane season. If you bought too many paper plates for a picnic you decided not to take, put them away for huricane season. If you got sick from too much liquor in the hot sun and didn't eat the Twinkies you bought, put them away for hurricane season. Because one thing I can promise you is we will have hurricanes moving West and WNW around a huge High that wants to build a condo in the Atlantic ... maybe name it Atlantis, open up a vacation resort for people who want to really socially isolate. 

Yes it's going to rain in the South often.

If you don't see it here in this loop you have nothing to worry about and so enjoy the 4th of July and celebrate America because even though we have our troubles we are a great nation with wonderful people. If you knew as many people who I have known over time who got here by sitting in a truck tire or a raft from Cuba endangering their lives by being in shark infested waters with storms that could drown your sea going tire/raft you would understand how precious our life is as most people do not risk their life to travel to a country by floating in shark infested waters in a large raft they made at home from a large tire. I have ived and worked with several people who came here way back when exatly that way and when I asked how they could take that risk .... their response was .... if you don't take the risk you have no life so you take the chance to have a life. You're here, enjoy it and give thanks and together we can make it an even better place.

1. Prepare for the Hurricane Season.

2. Enjoy the 4th of July as best you can.

3. Give thanks and work together to make it even better place!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.