Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Winter Waiting in the Wings... Questions on East Coast Storm Next Week.. Models disagree as much as political candidates.

What a difference 5 days make. 

The top right picture shows a rather balmy winter in the East.
Rain has been the game this past week or two.
Next week snow may become the player.
In the 5 day Snow Forecast snow edges South .... even teases the Carolinas a bit.

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Frontal boundaries.
ULL out in Atlantic looking like a ghost cyclone.
Look towards the Pacific and you will see the next real player.

Yes winter makes a come back over the next few days. We have had the illusion of Spring in January but it's just an illusion. February brings it all back though it may be a sliver of winter compared to some years. Some weather pundits have put out the possibility that a good part of March will be colder than January. That's hard to see play out however changes are down the road.

In Florida , South Florida they are having the illusion of a rainy season during the dry winter months. The next forecast strong cold front is forecast to make it all the way down into South Florida. Oddly when I was there for a week or two it was cool, as soon as I left it warmed up. Go figure.

There is much discussion on the storm that is due to impact the East Coast late Monday into Tuesday before it exits off the coast near the Outer Banks or Del Marva or... no one is sure because the models disagree on specifics more than the Republican and Democratic party. Seriously...

And as with most Winter Storms be they the "A" type or the "B" type they evolve in real time. So tomorrow and Saturday we will have more information.

I'm posting a link to Larry Cosgrove's Facebook Page. He's very good. Very good with specifics and tomorrow I'll post some of the models. The models are a mute point right now as they haven't really agreed on much other than there is currently ample moisture and there are many questions as to what the end game will be. People in New England are watching as much as people in Virginia.

Excerpt below is from Larry Cosgrove's Facebook Page.

Take a look. 
At the moment he and many of us are sad on the passing of Maurice White.
Earth Wind and Fire.
Great band, beautiful music.

3 am... maybe snow and rain in Raleigh

There has been discussion about Friday's small snow event in places.
But even the websites don't agree for the next few hours.

Hmm 4 am til 8 am.

Big difference there.

Baltimore deals with a possible messy AM commute

So I'm wondering if we get any snowflakes.

They went from "maybe some flurries" 
"just some snow flakes"
"not much accumulation"
"Ground is too warm, maybe on higher elevations"
"a few areas might get a snow squall with more snow briefly"
back to..

"we most likely will just see rain"

So I ask...
If we can't be sure on the weather in 5 hours.... can we be sure on the weather in 5 days?

Sort of the way of the world when it comes to weather forecasts.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,


Ps... Remember September...


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