Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, February 01, 2016

Who Will Owe Iowa a Victory? Winter Storm Kayla Should Arrive After Midnight in Most Cities. But How Well Do You Know Iowa? It's a BIG State.

Des Moines is the capital of Iowa.
Again know I am only commenting on themes in this election.
I do not support any one candidate or party.
I'm an Independent. It's still far away from my world.
I'm just watching news and the weather and wondering.
One of my degrees is in International Relations.
Politics was one of my first loves.
So bear with me and well weather is topical today there.

My son who lives in Seattle used to live in Ames Iowa.

It's a big college town and they've seen the candidates often there.

It's a battle ground as is the whole state of Iowa is today.

The snow should begin in Ames tonight around 1 AM.
I imagine most people will be home by midnight.
What a difference a few hours could make weather wise.

So far Winter Storm Kayla seems to be kind to the Iowa Caucus.

Unless something changes drastically today Winter Storm Kayla does not seem to be attending any caucus this evening in Iowa.  Weather being weather and fluid could create small surprises but the general forecast is Kayla shows up when most caucus workers are home waiting to see the results.

Understand that Iowa is a large state and weather happens in various areas at different times. That said the weather in Des Moines is vastly different at times from Decorah during any given storm. When you live in Rochester Minnesota you hear about the storm systems coming in from Iowa and South Dakota. When you live in Des Moines it's more about Nebraska. Iowa is actually a larger state than Pennsylvania, though if you asked many on the East Coast they would think otherwise.

Geography is always locational. You've seen those maps of the United States according to New York City people I'm sure. As there has been so much discussion on how New Yorkers think I figured y'all could use a laugh.

I have 3 kids who live in New York City.
They cannot understand how 1 sibling went to live in Seattle.
They say it as if he took a wagon train to get there.

But today Iowa is about the size of Texas when it comes to the news.

Weather should not be a factor.
Hard to say... die hard types will go do their thing.
Some who think their candidate will win anyway may stay home and hunker down.
A lot of news people may be trapped in Iowa for a day or two longer than planned.
Can't imagine young voters eager to attend their first caucus for Sanders will care.
It's all a matter of perception.
How much people want to show up for their candidate.
How much they are unsure and will just stay home.

A small factor maybe in that if the blizzard was not on it's way.
It would be a zero factor.

I'd have to say it may have a small factor.
In close races that may make a big difference.

Time will tell.

Either way Kayla is in Colorado moving East.

That's a Blizzard Warning NOT a Winter Storm Warning.

Hour wise it breaks down like this:

The snow isn't forecast to fall until sunrise in the NE part of the state.

Further West it could begin earlier.

Could more heavily populated areas in the West have a lower turn out?
And the areas in the East have a higher turn out?

Good article from Drake University.
See NY map above ;)

Note larger cites with universities tend to have more liberal voters... 
Those out in small towns and on farms tend to be more conservative.
Could an early arrival in Sioux City and Des Moines have an impact?


Time will tell.

Keep watching.

For now Kayla is still far away to the West.

sat_ir_enh_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

The Severe Weather for the South is now higher than it was yesterday.

Also note the Quad Cities in the SE of Iowa have the least weather happening.

Quad Cities seem a bit liberal.
Could that help Sanders and hurt Hilary?

Yup... only time will tell.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps... There was also a great old movie .. play named State Fair.
All about the Iowa State Fair ;)


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