Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, June 03, 2015

Tropical Moisture FL Bound? Model and Shear Discussion. Jennifer Delgado. Where's Bill?

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The always colorful and imaginative CMC model has the Caribbean moisture looping it's way in a strange dance up towards Florida and the East Coast. Shows something forming, criss cross it's way NE across everything in it's way and ends up...well watch the video yourself. I'll show one image below of where it ends up in the Bahamas... if you believe the Canadian. Understand we would not look at the CMC if it did not have some value...

"Annie" is out there in the Ocean singing the sun will come out..tomorrow...

Truth is Annie lies... it's gonna rain, rain, rain in South Florida

But will it just be rain or is there a tropical component here?
Therein lies the question for us today...

Easy to say Blanca is rolling in the EPAC
but this is an Atlantic Hurricane Season Blog

I like to start off with the far out there models rather than the slam dunk models to show the patterns and possibilities they are picking up on...

Moving up the ladder of credibility
We go to the GFS model
GFS AKA "American Model"

GFS shows it trying to close off a circle off OBX
Not able to do what the CMC did...
Note the similarity of the pattern...
Do not look for Bill.
Look at the pattern that is inhibiting Bill from forming.
Patterns are intriguing.

On to the EURO that hints at "something"
but like the Raven nothing more

Note the green mess off  SE coast...

I like to play here when there is nothing definitive going on.
They are simplistic and easy for you to run ...

Then move on to the more complicated model displays online.

Note that on Mike has the models there.

Bottom Left of the image above..
Top Left of the page itself.

What do I see? 
I see a slow consolidation of moisture and energy
South of Cuba
A slight twist is there
The first sign that something is trying to form.

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Trying being the operable term.
Lots of shear and there as Blanca nearby in the Pacific
Stealing the show
And, cold fronts are still dipping down...

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Note this area originated in a tropical wave west bound.
Part is caught up in the flow NE towards Florida.
Another part is sliding west towards the Pacific.

This is highlighted in the discussion of the Tropical Atlantic from NHC

As for women in meteorology 
I'm not talking on Blanca but Jennifer Delgado.

Jennifer shows meteorologists are not all nerdy, geeky MEN..
But smart, savvy, beautiful women with brains.
If you are a young girl and love the weather...
Figure out how you can make your living talking about the weather.

As Jimmy Buffett says
Make your avocation your occupation..

“If you can make your avocation your vocationyour life will be blissful"


I want to talk a little bit about the dangers of buying into forecasts that are used for sound bites online. And, when weather people online and On-Air have to tell a story that is weak in current plot construction with little character development. They get a press release from NOAA or read an article another meteorologist writes about MJO, El Nino, SAL or fill in the blank ________ and they quickly shoot off a segment on how "El Nino will inhibit tropical development in the Atlantic" or they put up a graphic showing how SAL is eating up all the tropical moisture coming off of Africa. Some years have strange factors that often argue the statistics and go against climo and other years are as predictable as how long it takes to boil up white rice. In truth, a year with multiple cold fronts working their way East and dipping South often throw wrenches into what seems to be a basic, easy forecast. And, again a forecast is an educated GUESS not a Monday Morning Talk Show discussing what happened on Sunday at 4 PM when the Jets played the Dolphins and ___________________ HAPPENED. They are still a forecast, way better than a crystal ball or calling Miss Cleo but they are not to be relied upon just yet. 

Meteorologists are not perfect.
We try our best using the tools we have at hand.
Often, we are surprised.

Just saying... you never know

We'll see what the models show tomorrow.
We'll see if the impressive ball of convection is still there tomorrow.
Tomorrow is just a day away... to quote Annie

Besos Bobbi


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