Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, May 04, 2015

Yellow Circle 5 Days Out... Something Maybe Ana Forming near Tropic of Cancer

Why can't you see it? Because it doesn't really exist yet. We are doing what should be called "model mongering" as we are discussing the projections of the models. I'm not talking astral projection, I'm talking projecting what may happen in the near to long term future.

The phrase "too early to tell" is being used more than the name ANA even though "ANA" is the big pink elephant here.

What do we see now?
Tropical Rain
Rain up from the Tropics
Hanging around the Tropic of Cancer

No I did not mean the book

I meant the line that goes around the world
down near Cuba...

in the Florida Straits ...actually

So, going to bring this discussion of a "Tropical" or "Subtropical Low" known as ANA back home to where the rain is falling. The rain dear readers is falling across Cuba and moving slowly north towards the Florida Keys. Next comes South Florida AKA "Miami" which is anywhere from when you leave the 18 Mile Stretch coming back from the Florida Keys to around FLL when someone explains to you that FLL is really in Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood and you go "oh okay, yeah like Miami" .... only a real Miamian will understand that part.

Most people don't understand what is being talked about as the Yellow Circle is UP near the Florida Georgia Line but the tropical flooding rains are still down to the South, moving up from Cuba following the Yellow Brick Road of early tropical systems.

Oddly in 2009 Cuba dealt with a tropical system known as Ana that was sitting in the same spot but going in a different direction ... as it was slowly pulsing up and down in strength.

Let's go look at what is down there now and more specifically WHERE


Almost like there's some energy point on the planet :)

Where is this going?

Looping the WV Loop we can see... 

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

Watch the front/trof progressing across the nation
Firing up around Oklahoma now..
Note the spin in the GOM
Note our moisture
down below

Tomorrow it is going to feel in South Florida as if we are on the "dirty side" of an Upper Level Low in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, that is what it will "feel" like and the front and the "spin" in the GOM will all come together in a few days as that moisture meanders its way back to the North to combine into some sort of possibly named entity (wow is this vague or what??) that may become Ana.

The NHC weighs in daily on this slowly developing situation with their "Special Tropical Outlook" and going to give you their thoughts and the way to get the "yellow circle" to show as several people have asked me how I find it... as they don't see it when they go to their main page. It's a bit sneaky, but right there in front of your eyes. Click on the 5 day do not focus on their 2 page leader.

Clue for you so you won't be clueless :) any more

Truth is this is as simple as it gets. IF you get a cold front in late Spring or late Fall that ends up down in this incubation area south of Cuba it often comes back to haunt you in a week or two as a weak late season tropical "something" or a late November Tropical Something.

It's an atmospheric ballet, a dance ... a tango between upper air currents, warm water below and moisture in between.

That's Ana down there. Maybe Ana. We've had Ana there before and may again.

We are simply too far out to see where this unborn storm will go once it forms. I'll be back later with track information and it's boarding pass for it's ultimate destination. For now... enjoy her dance where so many have danced before.

Alma 1970
Born May 17, 1970

Alma 1966
Born June 4th, 1966

What's interesting to note is that both storms affected Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Carolinas at one point or another... no matter which path track they took. Sort of like a tropical choo choo ... hey if you don't know me by now?

Note other storms besides "A" storms danced in Cuba

Irene 1999

I'll post a possible track that raised eye brows late last night online

"bad for golfing" 
he's great really...

Looks like it could mess up one of my favorite beaches ... Myrtle Beach, but only time will tell. If I wasn't going to be dancing in Miami I'd drive on down there. And, either way I'll feel the rain from whatever this system becomes sooner rather than later in Miami... MYami.

One thing I will say that most people will not say, but what happens in the Gulf of Mexico today and tomorrow will affect the ultimate path and intensity of Something that might be Ana.

She has a lot of miles to go before she sleeps. There is a strong area of High Pressure to her North. There is moisture and the tail end of a front in the Gulf of Mexico. It's a matter of timing. The longer she sits the better chance she has of getting a name be it tropical or subtropical. Also, the longer she sits the more likely that she may scrape her way up along the coast in an elongated mess with her "weather mass" disconnected from any low pressure that develops. She may be crescent shaped or wider than a double wide trailer trying to drive slowly in rush hour traffic up I95.

Stay tuned... it's developing. She hasn't even packed her bags, she's just sitting down there around Cuba listening to music.

Besos Bobbi
Ps... some info on Cuba hurricanes


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