Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, April 27, 2015

2015 Hurricane Season. Remember Cabbage Patch Dolls? Gladys Rubio... an awesome story there..

The water is HOT off the coast of Florida!
The Gulf of Mexico is HOT!
Florida Straits are HOT!

That's a lot of hot, hot, hot water!!!

This worries me going into the 2015 Hurricane Season.
Yes, the "experts" are predicting a slow or below average season.
Yet like real estate in Florida it's all about location ...
A fast developing storm just off shore would be a problem if this set up continues.

Remember back in the 1980s when the CABBAGE PATCH DOLLS were the best present ever?

Each doll was different and you could make each doll your own ;)

Hurricane Seasons are a lot like Cabbage Patch Dolls if you ask me.

They look similar ( I mean come on look at the eyes on those dolls as well as hurricanes) but each season is just a little different.

We as meteorologists do this holy grail sort of search for "the analog years" as if finding just the right year will let us see deeper into our crystal ball of climatology to see what is in store for this coming year.

Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach put out there early forecast a few weeks ago and everyone has been pouring over the data ever since trying to give their own thoughts and spin on what is basically the same story.

It's forecast by many to be a "quiet" season, quiet being relative to where you be living and where a random hurricane may be making landfall.

Take 1957 which is one of the analog years in the report.

Slow season indeed. Well, slow unless you lived in Texas and parts of Louisiana and met Audrey up close and personal. The fine people of Texas will never forget Audrey, the first hurricane of the 1957 Hurricane Season. Note Audrey caught a trof and moved all the way north into Canada creating weather where ever she went...

"worst storm in Louisianna in 100 years"

Some great personal accounts on Youtube if you want to look.

Old timers telling the story of Audrey in 1957.

A "quiet year in the tropics"

Read the discussion this morning and see how the set up of oozy, warm water...
... keeps flowing up towards the coast of LA & TX.
We also have late season fronts active... hmnnn....

A brief look at the details of the Dr. Bill & Phil Report..

Their analog years are as follows:

Oddly I've been meaning to mention 1987 as a year to remember.
A weak, but memorable, Hurricane Floyd moved UP the Keys into the Miami area.

Note that earlier in the year there was a smaller storm 
with a similar path

May of 1987 

Note the pattern.... was set early in May.

The year as a whole is below

What is different?

Cold water in the Atlantic & the Caribbean will make it difficult for any tropical waves to really get going. But, if they continue weakly westward and find their way up into the Gulf of Mexico, they could ignite rapidly on any given day into a fast developing tropical storm or hurricane.

So... let's look again at 1987 edited a bit by me and see the areas of concern. As I said we had wild fires in 1986..and into 1987. The child who had asthma in 86 continued to have asthma in 87 and while staying at my mother's house he hurt himself jumping up and down on the sofa bed. We kept telling him to stop... Anyway, my brother and I drove down Alton Road to South Beach to his doctor who gave him stitches. We basically drove through the wort of "Hurricane Floyd" which really seemed more like a tropical storm but.. it was a good, strong taste of tropical weather.

Let's look at 1957 a year that is also in the analog years.
I edited it again with a blue line....

If you don't look at Carrie that formed off the coast of Africa then you have the same area that is active as was the case in 1957. Close in... Florida & Gulf of Mexico.

1991... another active year in that same grid.

Again a track NE across Florida & the Keys

Again every year is different. 
That is the point.

Crown Weather has a map up that shows their concern areas.
Again, the area in the GOM & FL are a concern.

Crown Weather has great discussion on this set up as other possible problems with the coming Hurricane Season.

It's a good read, especially if the Colorado State report is a hard read. My suggestion is to read them both, read them all and continue to read my blog as well. There are so many factors involved in trying to see the future and a forecast is ... a forecast. 

Forecast = Prediction

It's based on previous data. 

Example. If you ride Amtrak long enough you may be delayed with a problem or an accident. I ride Amtrak, I know, but I still ride Amtrak. I've lived on Miami Beach 3 blocks from the ocean, I'd do it again if I could afford to... hurricanes happen eventually. Hurricanes often happen in SLOW years like 1992 (not an analog year but could be) when Andrew slammed Westbound into Miami in an El Nino slow year.

1992 .. NOT a busy year. 
Big memorable storm.

1921... NOT a busy year.
Tell that to Tampa.

Curious what Jim Williams has to say on the 2015 season.
No 2 meteorologists are alike... 
Like 7 men and an elephant they all study a different part of the problem.
Jim tries to forecast WHERE they will hit.
Where vs How Many . . .

34 Days to Go til the start of the 2015 Hurricane Season 
check out the ticker... ticking down...

And, check out part 2 of this discussion will include the ever popular El Nino (also no 2 are exactly a like) and other features in the tropical Atlantic that often affect the Hurricane Season. Note, on May 15th, 2015 the EPAC Hurricane Season begins and activity in that basin affects the Atlantic Basin. I'll also be discussing current synoptics that highlight where the weather has been happening and patterns that may affect this coming season. An example being the nonstop flow of Gulf Moisture into LA and TX, in fact they have had tornado warnings and severe weather often. Lastly, I'll be talking about the record breaking heat in the Miami area this year. Yesterday's almost triple digit weather broke records that have held since 1971. That's a long time ago.

Note today it's sort of active in the East Pacific..
Looks like a busy season for the EPAC.


As for my woman in meteorology today Gladys Rubio has a life that is worthy of a movie about.

A preview:

"Growing up in Camaguey, Cuba, her longtime interest in meteorology can be traced to 1963, when Hurricane Flora devastated eastern Cuba. She remembers this as the first time she was in the eye of a hurricane. Having had no idea what was happening during this event, she was immediately fascinated by tropical meteorology. Rubio pursued her interest in tropical meteorology after having moved to Havana City to attend the University of Havana, where she received both her B.S. and M.S. degrees. Since then, she has received significant experience in forecasting in both the private and government sectors. Rubio began her career at Cuba's Meteorological Service, where she was a member of the technical staff and a shift supervisor for 20 years. She also worked for 10 years at the Cuban Institute, providing daily weather reports on television and radio. One of the most vivid memories of her career was at the Cuban Institute, when she worked 36 hours while Hurricane Kate made landfall. Once again, she was in the eye of the storm."

Read on. How did she end up working at the NHC in Miami?? What a story...

Stay tuned. 
Prepare for the busiest season.
Prepare as if your town is the town .... where that rare 2015 Hurricane makes landfall!

Besos Bobbi

Ps.  Doesn't look to be a year like 1995 or 1996 or 2005, but no one wants to bet the proverbial farm that there will not be any dangerous, landfalling hurricanes this coming year. Would you?


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