Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Surprise Snow in Raleigh. Not So Surprising ... Very Beautiful. Busted Forecast ... better 3 inches of snow than a bad NHC forecast for a Cat 3 ;)

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Let's take an up close and personal look at this loop above.


Note snow is pretty much covering a good part of North Carolina.
Oddly, the NWS didn't feel this would be such a significant event.
Sort of not seeing the forest for the trees.
Focusing on the BIG event later this week... 
They missed the big snow event in front of their noses.

Rhyming with noses........
Today is my 6th Wedding Anniversary.

I got snow and roses :)


Okay I took them in but left one outside ...
Figured it was better than a ruler..


Yesterday I tweeted this ...
Note I said moving into the Piedmont tomorrow.
Tomorrow is today.
If I can read a Water Vapor Loop why can't the NWS?
Well the NWS can... but they are so bogged down with models.
Models were made to assist weather forecasters not confuse.



Hooks up thru the Piedmont Tomorrow.

Forecasting is all about timing.
As I say ALL THE TIME
If you blow the timing you blow the forecast.

For the most part this was a blown forecast.
Or more so an ignored forecast as it was a strong possibility.




Last night I went on a rant on Twitter about the ridiculous cat & dog videos that WRAL were showing... rather than talking on the strong possibility of snow falling during the morning commute. It's not that I don't like dogs and cats, but I knew it would snow and there were some models that showed more than a dusting for this morning, yet those models had been mostly dismissed. I put on WRAL news at 10 PM to see what they had to say and they had a cat in Canada jumping through snow and some dancing dog. A real FAIL if you ask me. I knew any dusting on untreated roads in the Raleigh area during the morning commute would be a mess.



Raleigh is a lot like Miami in ways that they never, ever, never want to cry snow or tropical event as people may pack up move somewhere else or decide not to book their Convention in our area. As said in Absence of Malice you never say a shark was sighed in Miami unless it walks up onto Biscayne Boulevard and bites a tourist.

You see that is why I pay attention to forecasters NOT in the Raleigh area. Norfolk covers our weather sometimes in their maps. Brad in Charlotte is awesome. Jim in Atlanta is great.  They are not afraid to show that there might be snow in Raleigh and then worry their forecast doesn't verify... too much fear in forecasting these days with forecasters having to look over their shoulder on Twitter, Facebook and every other social media where arm chair weather fanatics follow the models.


Cantore, who has been brought in from Boston, is watching.


Here's the Water Vapor Loop... 
You can see how this zoomed across the South..
And...hooked up towards the Piedmont.

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I made that big on purpose....so you can really see it well.
Moving FAST.
I saw that yesterday.

Gary Stephenson is good. 
He's with the weather team on our local Cable News Station
Know as... TWC lol Time Warner Cable.
Better than the other TWC..

He was insistent yesterday... snow showers possible.


Also Mike Maze on WRAL does do a good job.
Greg Fishel went on & on about his doubts on Wed/Thurs Snow..


Mike Maze kept reminding people to check in early before work.
Gary Stephenson kept reminding people to wake early & check the updated forecast.

As for me... my husband asked me last night where I wanted to go to dinner tonight for our Anniversary. Fiction Kitchen came to mind or Vegetarian Indian place.... I asked him if we had steaks in the freezer. We only eat kosher meat... it's in the freezer in Raleigh ;)

He said this morning after his morning meeting was cancelled and he drove home on local roads as the highway was a traffic jam, when I told him to take out the steaks he figured it was going to snow ;)

And, it did... and it is..........still coming straight down..........


video


My snow covered rose ruler tells the story. 


Raleigh is covered in snow.
The Museum has it's own snow globe.
http://naturalsciences.org/
Museum closed for snow today...



Enjoy. Stay safe. Stay home if you can. And, note there is more winter weather on the way so when it stops snowing.... go buy those things you never got around to buying for this morning's snow. 

Wednesday or Thursday depending on timing... there's more winter weather on the way.

Last loop. Watch carefully as 1... you can see why it is snowing and 2 why it will snow more later this week.  Moisture from the tropics (GOM) moving up connecting with the Southern Jet Stream giving us........Southern Snow.

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I still dream tropical dreams. I chase hurricanes. I study hurricanes. I write about hurricanes. Momma didn't raise no fool.. not chasing snow it's way too cold and too many layers. Just laying here in bed listening to the round the clock coverage on TV and enjoying the snow falling.... 

Besos Bobbi



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