Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Saturday, February 14, 2015

Winter Storm Possible in Dixie This Week. Snow.. Sleet... Freezing Rain Possible.

uschill.gif (640×480)

It's a cold, cold night across most of the Eastern Half of the USA.
Especially cold in the South... 
The above is the current wind chills. 

Before reading this blog post note I am writing about Raleigh and the inconsistencies of the weather forecasting business when it comes to winter weather "events" in the South. But, everything I am saying goes for most of the South that may be in the cross hairs for a winter weather warning later this week.

Atlanta, Charlotte, Conway South Carolina I'm talking to you.... 
From Tennessee East... or South... 

A Winter Storm in the South IS possible this week.

And tonight anyone out there without their gloves, scarf, hat and puffer coat is gonna be mighty cold.

So, I'm lying here in bed under the covers resting a bit and watching weather loops after what has been a beautiful Valentine's Day. Roses, chocolates and fine wine. Throw in some Maple Crown Royal and wow.. nice.  Add in a forecast for surface accumulation for some kind of wintry precipitation. NASCAR on TV and the sound of the wind whooshing through the Carolina Pines.

Yes, that's me these days when I'm up here wishing on snow.

(There's a reason I spend some of my winter in Carolina... wishing for some winter weather)

And, I wonder as we move towards a possible Southern Winter Weather Event (note we never call them storms up here until the traffic snarls and people really believe the snow is falling).. I wonder on just what we will get.

The problem here is that no one wants to forecast a Winter Storm coming in the South even if the EURO has a model with glitter, blinged out with flashing NEON LIGHTS featuring SNOW and SLEET on the marquee.

Currently in parts of Raleigh there are snow flurries. 
I haven't seen them.
Then again ... I've been inside.
I've peeked outside but nothing but the cold screeching wind.

Mind you I don't see the flurries .... 
(Getting exercise getting up and looking outside)
... But I can feel the temperature dropping.

Why the problem with the locals believing in a forecast?

#1 There are too many forecasts these days.
#2 People always believe the first forecast ...which is usually cautiously too conservative.
#3 They've been burned so many times before they just never believe it's gonna snow.
#4 Too many weather APPS with conflicting info.
#5 So many people moved here to the "Triangle" to get away from winter weather... they cannot wrap their heads around the fact that they didn't go far enough South.

Number one for all those Yankees who moved to Raleigh-Durham area to get away from the snow...

What were you thinking? It's called NORTH Carolina for a reason. Yes, I say that a lot. You know why? I constantly hear people from Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Boston complaining they moved here to get away from the snow. To those people let me say this:

Since it's Valentine's Day as I write this I'll put this in terms that many can understand. The first long term forecasts are the ones that everyone remembers. They are like those first loves you can't forget and get lodged in your head forever. A 7 day forecast for any given spot on day 1 is the forecast everyone remembers. They stand there on their front porch shaking their head insisting they heard so and so say "we probably won't see any real accumulations" and then each day they raise the ante yet viewers aren't paying attention as they think they know what will happen . . . because they believe the first forecast.

Note the differences in the various weather APPS tonight.

Yahoo has snow Monday & a little on Tuesday.

TWC shows snow in the afternoon only on Monday.

Accuweather shows a wintry mix on Tuesday.

National Weather Service is showing multiple snow possibilities.
Note since I posted"snow" reports at the top of the page the temperature dropped.

Which APP do you have?

Because Betty Lou is expecting a lot of snow on Monday and a little on Tuesday.
Bubba is expecting snow on Monday only.
Melissa Lynn is expecting snow on Tuesday with bright sun on Monday
and......Darlene is expecting the possibility of snow on Monday through Tuesday with Ice possible.

All are checking the weather... all have their favorite computer sites they go to..

On TV... WRAL is talking on the possibilities. A lot of people round these parts live and die by WRAL. 

There was a brief discussion tonight on up to 3 inches is possible with a higher number to the north in Durham just up the road with a disclaimer that these are early reports.

This is not just about Raleigh.
The same Texas Two Step goes on from Houston to Atlanta to Raleigh ...Charleston is not exempt.

This is human nature.

This graph is up at 

Currently the wind chills are the biggest problem as frost bite and hypothermia is possible for anyone out doors not dressed properly for this very Arctic weather.

I wrote about this over a week ago in my blog.
Frigid Cold Valentine's Evening... and I warned people to stay warm & cuddle inside.
I hope you all listened.

The NWS updated their forecast for tonight in RED.


Discussion this evening from NWS...note my thoughts.

NOTE: The above was an excellent attempt to try and explain the models and various possibilities.

The models are not consistent lovers, they are false like the moon... misquote Shakespeare

Basically until the "system" forms ... we aren't sure.
Everyone needs to heed their local NWS for updated warnings.
Just put in your zipcode and they update in real time.. in red ;)

Stay tuned Y'all. 

Besos Bobbi
PS... it's going to very cold in parts of the South and any snow that falls will stick..for a while!

By the way this is a great song to watch NASCAR to... as the cars go round and round.


Post a Comment

<< Home