70% Chance of Bertha Forming. Reminder buy a T-shirt to help Cyclone Jim Battling Cancer...please

Short term it's orange... Long term it's Red

Riddle: What is orange and red and Bertha all over??

Feels like Deja Vu doesn't it??

:^)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif

So how does Invest 93L differ from TD2?

Invest 93L is much larger than the mini cyclonic structure of TD2. Shear is lower. The atmosphere is wet...not so dry. It's closer to hurricane season... a little bit early for Cape Verde Season but then it's a little early for the 3rd cold front of Summer along the East Coast too... See a pattern here?

Models show almost a hurricane...down the tropical road.

Track?

Classic Cape Verde Hurricane Track

As my Grandma Mary used to say... "up and over the islands"

Further East than last night and further north... Seems the High is there but retrograding, breathing in and out and if Tropical Storm Bertha (Hurricane...) can do the timing right she has a pathway towards the SE & Mid Atlantic Coast. That cone is huge as for one she doesn't really exist yet and two she is still so far away.

As for far away...

I'll be in Key West when I write my next post as I'm about to hit the road. I will update on Twitter with news so keep in touch @Bobbistorm for breaking news.

As much as this looks like another wild goose chase in the tropics it is not. It seems the water is hot, the air is wet and all signs are go for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season to get going.

Note... the incongruities of this summer and remember than with regard to the hurricane season.

1. More Twisters in NC and California than Oklahoma. 

2. NE and NY are very in play for weather...severe weather that is from Twisters to flooding.

3. Venice Beach deadly lightning strikes. I lived in LA in the 80s and I can barely count 5 times I saw thunderstorms in LA. They are so rare and people are not prepared for how to act rapidly the way they are in Tampa Bay.

4. What next?

So by the time some of you read this blog the NHC will most likely have upped the short term odds to above 50% for formation and long term...............this appears to be the real thing. Bertha.

The big question now is will the next models continue to imply that she will be Hurricane Bertha?

Only time will tell..

Besos Bobbi

Ps... Please buy a shirt and help with the medical expenses for a storm chaser who has brought us so much information, knowledge and so many visuals of what it is to be in a hurricane. Buy a tee shirt. Get a great shirt that shares our love of weather and the proceeds all go to help a friend battle cancer.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/jim-leonard-stormchaser-battling-cancer.html

http://www.skiesovertheplains.com/

http://cyclonejim.com/