Colors of the Tropics & Coyote Drones

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/gulf-and-tropics/WV/

A look at the tropics today via the water vapor image ... moving into Late July.

A Midsummer Cold Front pushed into the South... 

a low level wave tries to sneak it's way into the Caribbean...again...

What does the NHC say??

The NHC site says graphically there is no tropical cyclone activity expected during the next 48 hours.

Their Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion hints at the value of a distant Cape Verde Wave with some voticity that one model has been highlighting.

"..TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N30W TO 14N28W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB TROUGHING 
AND AN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE VICINITY OF 
09N30W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
05N-10N BETWEEN 26W-33W."

Another vote comes in from the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Report:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rCUMP_048.gif

It's an interesting site to play with and get to know during quiet times. Here's another image I'm including because it was my favorite color in the old crayola pack... and to show you that studying the tropics is not as simple as looking at the NHC main page and rewriting what it says... there are layers to learn.

Now is a good time to study something tropical or prepare for the rest of the 2014 Hurricane Season. 

Seems the models were wrong and El Nino is not a wolf lurking outside the door waiting to huff and puff and blow the 2014 Hurricane Season away... 

Again, make me want to remind people to not buy into the models too much until a hurricane actually forms and we get better data from recon put into the model runs. Not to believe too much about predicted El Ninos until one forms.  We are running currently above average for Hurricane Days in 2014 as Hurricane Arthur put a rise in the numbers. However, in general we are seeing a pretty average season. While the EPAC dances y'all should be doing some hurricane preparation in your house holds and if you don't use them up this hurricane season those of you who live where it snows may need to use them up as the Winter of 2014-2015 may be a fierce one along the East Coast and into the Piedmont.

Always best to be prepared... 

It makes great headlines for meteorologists to post about how El Nino is coming or how cool the water temps are or how it may be a below average season. It may make great headlines, however it fails to prepare you for the unpredictability of weather and aids in letting your guard down. Never hype the weather, not a "mild hurricane season" forecast nor tell people that the sky is falling when it isn't. Just be honest and stay prepared.

In Raleigh yesterday we received 4.21 inches of rainfall that set a record for this date. Worth noting both 1996 and 1954 were both big years for record rainfall in the area. Both featured hurricanes along the Carolina Coast and beyond. Worth noting NY is also in play this year record wise and weather wise which makes me worry on the hurricanes forming close in later in the season.

In a year where the models predicted a slow season and we already had a lanfalling Category 2 Hurricane and those are the same models that predicted a busy season last year and an early El Nino.. I pay more attention to hard facts such as Weather History.

"4.21 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE RALEIGH-DURHAM INTL AIRPORT ON

TUESDAY JULY 15 2014. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.80 INCHES SET

IN 1954.

$$

000

SXUS72 KRAH 161021

RERRDU

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

621 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2014

...DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL RECORD SET AT THE RALEIGH-DURHAM INTL AIRPORT

YESTERDAY...

4.21 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT THE RALEIGH-DURHAM INTL AIRPORT ON

TUESDAY JULY 15 2014. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.80 INCHES SET

IN 1954."

The present may be a busy EPAC and Pacific and that is within the realm of  "normal" for this time of year. June too soon... July too early...

Tomorrow comes fast before we know it and it is more reliable than the models that predicted El Nino..

Soon we be watchin waves movin off of Africa... 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uifuzx9TDVY

Understand the watching the tropics like listening to music is a long term project. Sometimes a season builds slowly like a song that goes slow...and then heats up fast in late summer into a tremendous summer storm or a hurricane... waves riding along on the river of the atmosphere ...chug, chug, chugging along the ITCZ. Sometimes they form near Africa (like Donna) and other times they form closer in like Cleo in 1964 and sometimes they form really close in like the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. You never park on the tracks and you always look both ways before crossing. Same thing with the tropics.

Yes... El  Nino not forming. Yes... temperatures in the Atlantic are still cool. Yes.. Mother Nature finds a way. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

El Nino is a No Show is the  headline of that article in the link above...

Arthur 1994. Earliest landfalling July Hurricane in North Carolina. Took his time, but once he got rolling he went all the way... 

BobbiStorm's Bottom Line:

Watch early fronts that dangle too long as stationary fronts in off shore waters. And, never count out a good Cape Verde Wave. Somehow it will find a way.. a weakness somewhere if one exists and if this one doesn't..it will still do it's job adding moisture to the ITCZ for the next one to give it a shot. Tropical Waves are like sperm... without protection one of them eventually gets in :)

Besos Bobbi

Ps... amazing work the NHC is doing with drones...

http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2014/07/16/eric-uhlhorn-talks-about-coyote-drones-in-hurricanes/

Coyote Drones...who knew...