SAL 2012 & SAL 2014. July Stand By.... A comparison by the brown eyed girl..

It's a big wide world and everything is connected and related.. 

Over the USA there are a plethora of low pressure systems

Over the Atlantic there is a huge double barrelled high pressure system 

Worth noting how low down that high pressure system goes

Note the next image... it shows how far south the H holds sway compared to 

the rest of the world.. similar but lower

the dots in the high are DUST...Saharan Dust

This is within the realm of normal for the hurricane season for July.

That's why we remember September..

Obviously sometimes June & July bring hurricanes

..sometimes it's not all over in October 

But on an average this is how the hurricane season rolls...

Up close note 2 things..

watch the edge of the High on the right

watch the moisture in the GOM on the left

For parts of FL it's like rain, rain go away... come again another day..

Watch the orange moisture feed loop to see where the moisture is going

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

I put the image up on the top that can be found here: 

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php

It's a good site to use and it's highlighted at www.spaghettimodels.com. Rainy Sundays like today are in the Carolinas are good for taking a chance and going out or staying home and going through your to do list. Add some of those links on Mike's site to your "to do things" to learn more about how the tropics work.. or... just watch my blog for updates and the NHC and your other favorite sites for breaking news. 

Lastly.... it's just not so hot in the Atlantic. There has been so much talk on DUST and it's important, but it's only one part of the problem for waves trying to form. Without the heat underneath their wings they cannot grow. Dust is almost always present. IF you have no dust and a strong high and colder water temperatures you got nothing. I've seen years where there was more dust and waves developed despite the dust and dragged the dust all the way into the Caribbean.

Let's look at why it's not just the DUST and more the placement of the HIGH & cool water temps.

This was July of 2012. The season the brought us Hurricane Sandy proving the old adage wrong as October is was not all over. Lots of SAL. Similar look to the image of dust above, waves below.

There was a lot of dust in July of 2012. You will note the dust didn't stop Sandy or Valerie from forming later in the year. 

Compare and contrast that dust signature with the one today...

Today on July 20th, 2014 the same SAL is terrorizing the waves.

Discussion from 2012 note the date ... June 2012:

What is the bigger difference between 2012 and 2014?

The super duper High Pressure is one monster high for now but as always things change fast in the tropics.

Another odd similarity to 2012 from this year was that we were watching an El Nino develop (supposedly) and we had similar derechos in the NE that set up a boundary line around NYC that worries me going forward with the rest of the season. I'm hoping an early winter will save the
NE from more hurricane landfalls and sweep anything tropical out to sea. That same set up could be a problem for the Gulf Coast as storms that get into the Carib and GOM could be pulled north towards a date with an early season, strong cold front.

Only time will tell...

Did I mention this is a good week to go to the beach...or the mall ....or to stock up for the rest of the 2014 Hurricane Season when Sal loosens his grip, the water warms up and the MJO becomes favorable.

Besos Bobbi

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/quiet-in-tropics-too-quietmeteor-or.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elQlvF8I6kc