Hurricane Harbor: Problems of Wanna Be Hurricane Bertha

This is what the tropics looks like this morning in Mid July. A very early, humongous Cape Verde Wave that looks hot to trot is departing Africa as I type this..

If this was another year or later in the year I'd go "oh my goodness" or some other phrase that is not acceptable on my blog (unless I'm in a really bad mood maybe...) as that is the type of wave that hurricanes are made of...........

Note the words in the fine print: "There are no active storms in this basin"

Yes, true and as Mike says "nothing is cooking" but the ingredients are on the table. The chef is missing in action and Mama doesn't want to start the grill without him...so she's home eating sushi while he is off fishing. But...steaks are in the freezer and fresh ears of corn are waiting to be cooked... but we aren't there yet.

Why?

Some mets will say any of the following reasons:

a) too much dust
b) water temperatures are too cold
c) El Nino will be here ANY minute
d) projections were for a slow season
e) all of the above
f) none of the above
g) some of the above but it's complicated...

Yes Virginia it's G!

Some who go deeper and do not repeat the press releases for the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2014 will point out that there is a big, huge high that is out there that has parked itself like a big broken Winnebago looking for someone to take it to the shop to be fixed so it can head out west before the hurricane season really gets going.

I mean if it was a smile it would be grinning from ear to ear from The OBX to the Azores.

It's just sitting there grinning...

Shear is pretty strong.

The problem with this set up is that IF something were to form it would follow under the High..

If Bertha was a Cape Verde Storm (low odds) she would go west under the high...

She'd do that little tango dip move that the CV Waves do and head west..and turn somewhere..

Those highs are living breathing things.. they expand, inhale, pulse out... expand..

Loop a model and you will see:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2014071700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Any model as they all show the same thing...

See the big high on the GFS...

ECMWF....

All the models are variations on the same theme...

Maybe we could name the huge high Bertha???

Okay seriously here the point of today's blog post is to show you how difficult it is to get lift off in the tropics this year. And, may I add normally (without any hype) we do not see hurricanes form until the last week in July and early in August. The ditty goes "Remember September" for a reason. The problem is some years are unique and when you average out all of the "weather" from this year and that you get an average. That is climo... all added up over history...

This is the image above I call "Big Momma" not because I think Bertha is a red head, but because it's the first thought I had when I saw it and I'm a huge Tennessee Williams fan..

You can check out all the models, loops and information on Mike's Spaghetti Models site..
See address in web browser??? I did that on purpose ;)

The 48 Hour Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product shows the following areas as worth watching:

I'm watching..

It's shows a large area off the coast (to the W of the Huge High)

and oh my goodness what is that off the coast of Africa??? A Cape Verde Wave??

Let's go closer and be a weather stalker...

Note the little man at the top must live in Charleston as he is leaning over and trying to get a good peek!

Then there is the area off the coast of Africa that is shall I say a bit low...

Preferably they should be higher up near the beach at Dakar but whose going to argue with the ghost of Hurricane Donna departing the coast of Africa?? Really just an illusion... great wave, sign of possibilities down the road. Think of it as a starlet not ready for prime time. It got enough mention by the models to get TWC to show it on air and to mention that the "Cape Verde Season" is around the corner. I mentioned it yesterday and before that without having the models verify what I knew and was obvious.

Just because the ingredients are there and the waves are rolling does not mean we will have Hurricane Bertha any time soon.

Hurricane Bertha, wherever she is and she may be a mild Tropical Storm barely there just off the coast, will show up when she sees the weakness.

It's like jumping rope.. you have to know how you can't just swing that rope around and jump..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0PCqv6hyWc0

Oh wait.. my bad that's for an intense work out at home alone..

Let's go with a double dutch style game..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvT0Lops9WE

Okay...seriously does that look easy? Yes, as the Z girl said you have to take little steps but getting a hurricane going is like getting the timing perfect between the ropes going around and when to jump in or it isn't pretty trust me.

It's all a matter of timing. It's a matter of having the right conditions.

1. Warm water..

2. Moist air...

3. Low shear so that the thunderstorms can go UPPP HIGH into the sky (are you reading this or rewatching that first video???) and then expand outward and get going

4.The Huge High cannot be breathing down it's back so much that it can't think...or breathe...

5. Needs model support to get any attention from the NHC, TWC and you over there watching the girl jump rope..

So... does this wave have any model support?

Yes and no... signs of things to come...

So enjoy the really cool temps if you live in Carolina, Georgia or parts of Florida and know that there is another shot of cool air behind it. Know we are really into early August in some ways more than what you see on the Calendar. Think of it like a beautiful aging model... Late July is the New August :)