Will Invest 92L Become Tropical Storm Bertha? Where would Bertha Go? What is in a Name? Bertha 1996...

Fast changing situation as the NHC puts out a "special outlook" hours ahead of their normal update.

"000

ABNT20 KNHC 211507
TWOAT 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1110 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of system in the
central tropical Atlantic.

Updated: Shower activity associated with a small area of low
pressure located about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles has increased a little during the past few hours.
Although this activity remains limited, it continues to show signs
of organization. Satellite data also indicate that a closed
circulation could be forming and that the system is producing a
small area of winds near tropical storm force. A tropical depression
could develop during the next couple of days while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. After that time
however, environmental conditions are expected to become less
conducive for development. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Roberts"

And suddenly there was a yellow X that has been updated to an Orange X and there is an Invest in the Atlantic.

After days of posting predictions of nothing happening for the next 48 hours....the NHC put up a yellow X this morning with 20% chance of development citing the difficulties down the road for this system. Then, suddenly, this morning based on satellite imagery and model support they put out a Special Outlook hours ahead of their normal update scheduled for this afternoon.

I wouldn't be surprised if they issue advisories at 5Pm or later this evening if it continues organize to the way it has been doing all day.

Invest 92L has a very tightly, recognizable low level center that is moving quickly west. It is a small system and small systems often spin up quickly and models do not always work well with small systems. The SHIPS model likes it so much it predicts it will become a Tropical Storm soon and even shows it nearing hurricane strength in 120 hours. Note RaleighWX is not predicting that, they are just showing what the models show...

Why would we worry on this so far out? Because if Bertha does form from this the models show a classic Cape Verde Track up and over or through the islands.

Closer up view of the models so far...

IF and that is a real IF the NHC begins advisories a 5 Day Cone COULD look something like this:

This is NOT a product but a guesstimate of an approximate long term track for Invest 92L and shows why the NHC would take it so seriously despite it being early in it's development.

Surprisingly Invest 92L is that type of wave I talked about yesterday that finds a way to develop despite the High, despite the SAL and despite climo that would say it's too early for July. 

A great map was posted this morning by the NWS in Key West that shows where storms usually form in the tropics this time of year. Note one of those early rare dots in the Central Atlantic was another Bertha storm in 1996.

What is in a name? Previous Arthurs formed close to where this year's Arthur formed. Now we have a Bertha like July system forming again. Go figure...

With regard to patterns...

Note that Bertha followed a path similar to this year's Arthur tho a bit different.

A close up look at Invest 92L shows how dusty her environment is...

Oddly being a stubborn wave it almost looks as if she is sticking her finger up at the dust..

Loop shows this better:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/imagery/ft-animated.gif

She is intensifying where she should be struggling. 

Is this a long term intensification or a short term one... time will tell.

But the NHC is on it and running models and watching her frame by frame.

There Invest 92L stubborning sits.. nestled just below SAL

Note again how it looked yesterday when I put up discussion on SAL 

And this is what bothers me and why I rant on not listening to sound bites and headlines writing off the Hurricane Season based on:

1) SAL
2) Low Water Temps
3) El Nino Forming
4) Bermuda High
5) All of the above.

Because despite all of the above hurricanes always happen. The water temps in July are always too low. The Bermda High is usually in place moving waves west but making it more difficult for them to form. El Nino is always forming it seems...yet the models this year have been as off on that prediction as they were last year in calling for a very busy 2013 season...

Somewhere some family that has been debating buying a generator decided not to this year based on a quick sound bite or headline that the 2014 Hurricane Season would be a no show. Yes, they will have nicely painted new bedrooms or a newly landscaped yard but alas no generator if a hurricane happens to show up threatening them.

I prefer we discuss hurricane seasons in retrospect, after they are over and we know for sure what they brought vs a forecast for what they might not bring. I'd prefer people to prepare, check with their local weather people/apps daily and stay on top of fast changing situations that are common in the tropics. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best and always stay on top of the ever changing situation.

Invest 92L will have a hard time down the road if it becomes Tropical Storm Bertha. But, being a small storm she has the ability to spin up fast and do what a larger, lumbering sort of storm might  not be able to do. Only time will tell.

Can't wait for the next model run and watching NHC to see what they say later today.

I'd guess that unless something changes fast Invest 92L will become a Tropical Depression if not get the Bertha sooner rather than later. Some say based on visible images the circulation is closed and very there...  but waiting to see what the NHC says.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
Invest 92 L is definitely rolling along...

Besos Bobbi

Ps...for old timers here's some video from TWC in 1996 of their coverage with John Hope of Hurricane Bertha.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5Ab1sLzzl0