Invest 92L Goes Red 70% Chance ... Will it be Bertha This Evening?

Tropics are alive and kicking.

NHC 

Model Tracks

Despite the Saharan Dust breathing down it's back it has managed to come together well enough today to impress the NHC to upgrade it to 70% chances. 

Worth noting that small cyclones are less likely to be picked up in advance by models or handled very well. If and when we get recon in there we would get better data. It was obviously there the last few days but without much model support few would talk on it expecting the dust to get it before long. That still could happen, but it's looking pretty impressive this afternoon.

Question remains can Invest 92L... possibly TS Bertha go the distance?

Please read the earlier post as the thinking is still the same...as would be the track. Note the current track puts the SE Coast under the gun after it would tangle with Haiti and/or Cuba...or it could ride up and over the island. First it has to form...then it has to stay together. Talk about a long shot!

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2014/07/will-invest-92l-become-tropical-storm.html

Besos Bobbi