NADINE... and HOW TO READ THE NHC DISCUSSION

No changes to the forecast other than... she's going to go a little further south.. no surprise here.

Anyone taking bets she will pull out before hitting Africa?

So, going to give a little lesson here on "how to read the NHC Discussion" which can seem daunting at times as it is prone to being difficult to understand if you don't have a background in meteorology or reading between the lines.

My translation is in blue.. and I am putting the words that are important in bold.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ABOUT FOR MOST OF THE DAY
(meandering is a code word for not getting with the program) ...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.(my question here is how can she be meandering 
which implies movement of some sort if she is stationary, can't have it both ways but there is a limit
what we can say here so let's just say she is stationary. FORECASTING THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING we are clueless, 
this is totally an impossible task.. couldn't we try and solve the national debt rather
 than forecast this storm?
A PROMINENT BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS
we really aren't sure ... in any normal year we would be done with this storm, lets keep 
a level of expectation vs saying it is "forecast" to evolve...
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A COMPLICATED STEERING
PATTERN. No $hit Sherlock.... duh...  complicated is an understatement
 THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAVE HARDLY BEEN A MODEL OF
CONSISTENCY FOR NADINE. FOR EXAMPLE... useless, totally, totally useless  
THE 5-DAY FORECAST POSITION FROM THE 1200 UTC RUN OF THE GFS
 HAS SHIFTED A MERE 900 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 0600 UTC RUN. yes we said SW
THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE IS APPARENTLY VERY SENSITIVE TO HOW NADINE INTERACTS WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND A MASSIVE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.perhaps she has PMS? How old is she now she could have PMS...lets just say she is "sensitive, very sensitive"  IN ONE SCENARIO...THE
SYSTEM IS PULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH. please please please go East
.. AND IN ANOTHER IT MOVES SOUTHWARD yes we said southward as in we could be stuck with her until May of 2013...  AND WESTWARD nodding westward... ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE
ANTICYCLONE. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH SCENARIO SHOULD BE FAVORED AT
THIS TIME. AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET nice phrase... very poetic, basically six of one and half a dozen of the other... toss up, who knows... " a course of least regret, nice ...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SLOWS THE MOTION TO A CRAWL IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. how many ways can we say stationary??
THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST we said south...we know we said south  AND NORTH OF THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.  we don't buy the models and do not believe this is going to end up as far south as they think it could...   we are trying to stay between our previous forecast and to the north of the models which are obviously whacky and erratic. 


My translation and mine alone... based on experience and knowledge and got to give them credit because if they could write this storm off they would... beginning to remind me of Emily from 1993.
A meteorologically minded friend :) told me once that it looked like she was trying to trace Alfred Hitchcock's head in the middle of the Atlantic :) and he was probably right ...he was usually right.



Note.....................they often make the long trek back, but rarely do they get as low to the SE as Nadine has...


More later...

Besos Bobbi
Ps... the wave is still firing up in the Caribbean and there is a wave coming off of Africa that I have no idea what it could possibly be thinking... possibly a death wish... unless it thinks Nadine has attacked the Saharan Dust from the North???  Who knows... keep watching as we move through the peak of this erratic hurricane season of 2012...