Tropical Storm Isaac has now slowed down to only 5 MPH forward speed. That is basically a crawl vs a drift. I'm not sure at what point the NHC pronounces something "stationary" but we are about as close as it gets officially.
Looks the same now as it did before dinner. A slight bend to the NE which is strange, unless it's about to wobble NE. Wobbling is not movement, it is basically a sort of cyclonic looping.
The track seems to be bending more to the East at the end point, moving towards Virginia after going up the Mississippi River. That is a sign a trough will pick him up, which is good.
Tropical Storm Kirk looks weak, very weak and small in the middle of the Atlantic.
Kirk is small, weak and staying out at sea.
This is the system that is soon going to become our next named Tropical Storm. Leslie, the next name on the list will be a bigger storm than Kirk, more Isaac like in size.
Look at that blow up in convection in what seems to be the middle of the system. More important, the NRL added a "track" to their site, a good tip off they are waiting for an eventual upgrade.
Models are a little loopy right now and the situation down the road will depend on how fast Isaac moves out and frontal systems coming down from Canada and if the Atlantic High builds back in strong and lastly...how fast Leslie pulls it together. Again, weaker storms get further west.
NOW... back to Isaac, our storm of the hour and probably the year.
The water vapor loop shows us that he is trying desperately to bust through the ridge. I'd say he's an over achiever here, but I suppose because of his size it is possible.
The above image is from 12 hours ago, earlier this morning.
The image below is a current image. Notice the bulge that has formed in the middle of the ridge as Isaac bumps his head against it over and over as he spins almost stationary trying to find his way north.
Sort of impressive if you ask me. Still, Isaac is trapped and until he can break through he will sit and move at nearly 5 mph or in reality not move at all, just bobble around Louisiana like a bad house guest who will not pack up and go home.
On another loop it looks as if the ridge is bending and reaching down under Isaac to lift him up and out. Possibly why he has that NE orientation suddenly.
Odd angle, but look at how much rain is out ahead of Isaac caught up in his signature:
The damage totals are high and still climbing and most of the damage has not been seen yet. Images and stores are just coming out, person by person, tragedy by tragedy, near miss by near miss.
Watch Isaac spin... stay inside, even if they have lessened his intensity... his rain remains the same.
My biggest concern tonight is that people stay INSIDE and HUNKER DOWN and not get Cabin Fever and feel the need to "go out and find food" which one they should have already had in the house and two...there is no food out there and stores are closed and there... the water is deep, the weather is strong and driving around is not for the average person... stay home, stay safe and wait it out.
Let the Emergency Responders be out.. let the chasers be out and the news crews be out.. stay home if you live anywhere from Gulfport to Baton Rouge... stay home stay safe.
I'll be back later with more details. I just wanted to do an update on where we hold with the 3 Stooges tonight... Isaac, Kirk and the soon to be named Leslie.
An interesting link from www.spaghettimodels.com shows how these last storms took a bite out of SAL:
A large chunk took off for what seems Florida and Carolina. Soon to be Leslie seems to be not as affected as the last few storms.
Also he has several good water vapor loops, though I love Unisys for my own reasons, there are better sites and more options on his page. Find the loop you love, but check them all out.
Be back later...Besos Bobbi