ISAAC. & New Orleans... the Reality and the Nightmare

Isaac at 10:30 AM ... Tuesday Morning.

In "reality" Isaac is a strong Tropical Storm trying desperately to become a Hurricane. He is HUGE in SIZE and not in intensity. He has HUGE amounts of tropical moisture aka "rain" in his immense system and that drama will pay itself out over a very large area.  He has piled up a large storm surge that will move across beaches along the Gulf Coast and depending on the individual beach, it's shelf and depth and all the intricate factors that affect storm surge... depending on the beach there will be lots of flooding, small amounts of flooding and intense rain. This is NOT a wind event. It IS a RAIN EVENT... over 20 inches of rain is expected across the path of Isaac. Hopefully...they are prepared in New Orleans and in Alabama and Mississippi.

The tragedy of Katrina was not a wind event or a rain event, it was a levee failure event. And, it's wonderful that they spent a fortune trying to prevent another Katrina but it is a travesty that they waited for Katrina to fix a problem they always knew existed. It's like building a fancy barn with a state of the art gate after the horses all got out of the broken gate that everyone knew needed fixin. The number one tragedy waiting to happen, according to many, was a Major Hurricane moving towards New Orleans and the levees breaking down. In 1981 we drove cross country, stopped in New Orleans just prior to Labor Day Weekend and the front of the New Orleans Picayune was an article on "what if" ...

Anyway, this is Isaac who is "still trying to wrap himself and maintain the appearance of an eye wall" which comes and goes... goes more than comes, but he keeps trying. Eventually, just prior to landfall this could happen and he could come in as a weak Category 1 storm. He could also emerge onto land in the same way he looks currently... a large, messy tropical storm.

The President speaking is nice, but it's a political "got your back" game and it annoys me as it's totally political and where were all the Presidents (including Obama) when previously tropical storms moved towards New Orleans, Miami or Houston? This is not a partisan comment, this is a historical comment that it's ridiculous... I don't remember any President saying "Houston we have a problem" for a Tropical Storm in the past that was so disorganized. Seriously???  Welcome to 2012 a Presidential Election... maybe they will have a moment of silence at the Republican Convention as well.

Storms like this happen all the time. This storm just happens to be moving towards land at the anniversary of Katrina while both parties ramp up their politickin...

If they were so worried on protecting the American Public from Hurricanes they could open up their coffers and give the NHC what it needs to properly protect the American people. Free up some money for some more satellites. Give the people at the NHC a raise and more benefits. Give grants to young students looking to study meteorology and develop new models that would give us a better forecast and  an Intensity Forecast as well. Put your money where your mouth is... and let the money roll and grow and let it be invested in better forecasting tools and attract the youngest and brightest in the field who so rarely go into working for the government as that is not where the money is...

Just bugs me and it has nothing to do with partisan politics, across the board they have been overly tight with money for the NHC and NOAA and money is what makes the world go round when it comes to better research and collection of data and attracting the right people to do the jobs they do protecting us.

So... back to Isaac.. he is still spinning in the Gulf. As I said last night, he was not moving 10 mph.. he is barely moving now, just spinning around as if he wants to make a loop in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico.



Does that look like a Hurricane?

This is what a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico looks like.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5EAQ5UjWxY&feature=fvwrel

KATRINA:



ISAAC:

Notice the difference?

Also... notice Isaac's eye trying hard to form and wink at the camera.

Also ...notice the HUGE amount of RAIN on his south side that will VERY SLOWLY
move towards land and over and... creating massive inland flooding all the way up the
Mississippi River all the way up to the Ohio River.

Check out that track:

Rain should be felt from Isaac all the way into Canada and the Great Lakes...

So, this is my morning rant... there is So much focus on where Isaac will make landfall the people in the rest of the country are not prepared for what may happen down the road.

Next... as mentioned by Bryan Norcross... New Orleans hasn't had hurricane force winds in a while and they may from this storm.

WORSE... this storm is going to SIT over New Orleans, Gulfport, Mobile and possibly the Sabine River if he keeps moving west for over 24 hours... that is TWENTY FOUR HOURS according to all predictions and it seems he still won't rain himself out... and again look at his bottom side and long tail and look back at what happened to West Palm Beach a day after Isaac moved out of the area. 

So...this blog post is not about the track.... it is about the need for more money for better forecasting, Intensity forecasting. And, it is about making people aware far from NOLA where all the media is that this flooding event may be coming to a city near them later in the week.

As for me I am sitting here watching the ocean from my motel room in Kill Devil Hills, watching the water and wondering if it will see a hurricane later in the season up close and personal. I spoke to a lot of people around here this morning about another I storm.. Isabel. 

I storms... oy yo yoy yoy however you spell it.

Also.. remember that all of these cities listed below have the same basic odds for wind impacts from Isaac... do not focus on the exact center of the cone.

MOBILE AL      34 56  15(71)   3(74)   X(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 MOBILE AL      50  2   6( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 MOBILE AL      64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

 GULFPORT MS    34 70  15(85)   3(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)   X(88)
 GULFPORT MS    50  4  27(31)   3(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 GULFPORT MS    64  X   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

 STENNIS SC     34 71  20(91)   2(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 STENNIS SC     50  3  43(46)   5(51)   X(51)   1(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 STENNIS SC     64  X  14(14)   3(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

 BURAS LA       34 92   7(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 BURAS LA       50 40  45(85)   1(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
 BURAS LA       64  5  38(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)

 GFMX 280N 890W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 GFMX 280N 890W 50 92   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 GFMX 280N 890W 64 26   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

 JACKSON MS     34 11  25(36)  11(47)   6(53)   2(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 JACKSON MS     50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 JACKSON MS     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

 NEW ORLEANS LA 34 73  23(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 NEW ORLEANS LA 50  3  58(61)   9(70)   2(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X  26(26)   6(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)

 GFMX 280N 910W 34 60  12(72)   2(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 GFMX 280N 910W 50  2   7( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

 BATON ROUGE LA 34 42  38(80)   8(88)   2(90)   X(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 BATON ROUGE LA 50  1  23(24)  19(43)   3(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   6( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

 NEW IBERIA LA  34 29  36(65)  11(76)   1(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
 NEW IBERIA LA  50  1  10(11)  11(22)   4(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 NEW IBERIA LA  64  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)


Besos Bobbi
Ps...if the intensification continues there is a chance he could be a Cat 2..
Keep watching.... and keep the people ahead of Isaac in your prayers!
Thinking he is borderline a hurricane right now...