Isaac Moving Slowly... AL, MS & LA prepare...
At 11 PM Isaac is moving very slowly, forecasted to move at 10 mph forward speed but I really don't think he is moving that fast. He almost looks to be spinning about in the Gulf barely moving. There has been talk of him trying to become a Hurricane... yet his center is still exposed and his stronger storms are on the south side...as I said earlier today he looks upside down.
They have pushed back the timing on landfall and I am reminded that the European model saw this scenario days ago. The GFS has pulled slightly to the East...closer to Mobile.. maybe Gulfport vs Nola. Please understand that wherever this storm finally goes... whether he finally wraps up or he doesn't he is going to dump massive amounts of tropical moisture across a wide area from North Florida to Eastern Texas. The storm surge will pile up along the entire Gulf Coast and ... his moisture will move far inland.. all the way towards the Ohio Valley possibly.
The trough is dying out ...and is going to leave Isaac behind.
Discussion from the NHC makes that pretty clear at 11 PM.
"AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BYPASSES ISAAC IN A DAY OR SO...
SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISAAC TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVESINLAND
. AFTER 72 HOURS...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS."
This will cause MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF INLAND FLOODING. Please refer to your National Weather Service for specific information for your area. www.weather.gov. I cannot high light this enough. And, it will play out in real time... changing as the storm dictates by his final movement or slow movement.
His winds are now 4 mph short of Hurricane Force and he is spinning over warm water. And, he is spinning over warm water. Let's say this again..he is spinning in one spot over warm water. And, he is still far away from land so he can change his path easily over the next day and a half. Tornadoes can almost be formed in his bands as he moves towards and over land... S L O W L Y.
The other day I said he looked like a Scorpion. Here's the picture I showed.
It was that long scorpion's tail that reached down into the Caribbean that brought the rain to most of South Florida...today... when the winds moved far away from the area.
At www.spaghettimodels.com there are so many great links. This one we used to call playfully the "juice loop" on www.canetalk.com but is really a morphed composite of many things but what it really shows is when a roll begins the storm is spinning, intensifying... the darker it gets the stronger it is...the wetter it is.. the more "juice" aka energy it has... notice how it still has a tail that goes south of Cuba feeding the storm with moisture and keeping it alive and tropically healthy. When that dark orange ball with little magenta colors slams into the coast line he will bring with it massive high levels of storm surge and rain. He has traveled from Africa intact... despite a dusty beginning ... that is pent up energy that will be unleashed across a wide area.
I know every night we say he looks better... but really this loop would imply he is finally wrapping up and may be a Hurricane by the morning.
An example of the misery he has already caused can be seen by the heavy flooding in the South Florida area... breaking records in Palm Beach that went back to 1949.
Anyone who thinks Miami didn't have damage from Isaac, please read this article that the picture is from .... take a look, read a bit... he left the area a muddy mess from minor flooding, power outages and downed trees. http://www.miamiherald.com/
This flooding was really bad up the coast.. near Pt St Lucie... Vero Beach, far from the storm's center.
Understand that when looking at where Issac might make "landfall" because with this storm the problem shouldn't be landfall as much as everywhere the rain falls.
Mind you if he sits out there for 36 to 72 hours intensifying we could have a very different Isaac at landfall
Stay tuned... am in the Outer Banks tonight with great wifi but no cell phone service. The ocean is beautiful, wild, rolling waves... love it. Really love it. Going to go read up tomorrow on some Hurricane History in a few places.
Again...the barometric pressure in Isaac is falling... his winds should increase and he is spinning over very warm water barely moving.
6,000 crews from FPL are still trying to restore power to over 30,000 people without power still in Florida. ... don't underestimate him because he is not a Category 4. Every storm has it's on unique problem... no two storms are exactly a like... keep watching... prepare in you are in the path of Isaac and I mean his path tonight stretches as far north as Kansas City on the left and Memphis on the right and then over towards Carolina... it could even stretch further north into the Ohio Valley...
Check out www.weather.gov... put in your zipcode area and see if he will affect you and when and then... check back often for updates or changes to the forecast.
Stay safe, take care and stay informed...