Waiting on the 11 AM... Recon finds her stronger but...

Recon has found a lower pressure than expected and as they usually do they upped the wind speed based on that pressure reading and other wind data from the planes. Mind you that area of extreme weather over the Eastern Gulf and the West Coast of Florida is NOT the center of Debby. It is however, the weather area associated with Debby. Also, note how far south that weather goes... even firing up over the Yucatan in what seems to be a moisture tail. Oh what a tale this storm is...

Debby is now 60 mph, moving slowly to the north at 3 miles per hour and areas to her East in FLORIDA are getting tropical storm conditions and trouble with twisters spawned by Debby who is still in the Gulf with very little deep convection around her developing center.

A difficult call for the NHC as they gave an over reliance I think to the European and wrote off the GFS.

What changed?

The models. In the middle of the night all the models pulled right (east) including their fickler lover the European. To put it bluntly. What a bummer ... or as some kid said to me last night "sucks for them"

Rolling eyes. Teenagers... will they give that sort of commentary when they are thirty? Possibly. Some teens never grow up, they just get bigger.

Will Debby grow up? That is the question.

Water vapor shows a path North and NNE.

The NHC will most likely drag their huge cone back a bit towards the right and everyone is waiting to see what they will say when their discussion comes out.

I might suggest reading the NWS discussion from the different cities involved as they are forecasting for their area and not going with the official forecast any longer.

http://www.weather.gov/

Also, lastly... this is not just about the front... the front moving slow is a casualty not just of it being late June but of a slow pattern and cut off lows further up the pike than just the frontal boundary.  Steering patterns are not set, neither has Debby fully developed.



Either way... Florida is getting weather... a lot.

Their 4am discussion left a big door for them to make major changes at 11.

" IT SHOULD BE

NOTED THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY CHANGE. 

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS
BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART.  MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL
MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS
STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.."

You cannot blame the NHC for Debby being unpredictable, tropical weather is always unpredictable and that is why it is so fascinating to watch. They correct their errors in real time every six hours or as conditions warrant.

Stay tuned. Maybe with this storm the better graphic to look at is the Mariners 123 rule... and not the cone.

Besos Bobbi