Thoughts on Tropical Storm Debby

Late night thoughts are often like the munchies, you wonder in the morning why you did that...

But, I'm writing this in the middle of the night and these are the thoughts that keep bugging me.

The Canadian Model takes her north, not west, not east... slowly north or NNE towards the Panhandle, maybe Mobile to the west... NW Florida to the east edge of that cone... 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012062400&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

To me, at the moment anyway... based on her weakened condition, her continued shear from the west I think it's worth thinking on.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...

Locally here in North Carolina the the local weather mets tonight have low confidence in the official forecasts.  The official forecast is based on her intensifying.

Another great site to look at is the Navy Site as it's "cone" and area of concern shows more possibilities and areas of concern to worry on... 

Many of their models do show she becomes a Hurricane. Neat trick if she can do it, right now as I head to bed... I can't figure out how she is going to make it through tomorrow. She'll probably prove me wrong.

Again.......................the forecast for western movement was based on a strengthening Debby. If she doesn't strengthen soon and wrap the convection around her... all bets are off on what she does down the road.

Note the discussion out of the NHC at 11 leaves the door open to make changes in the forecast downt the road.

"MULTIPLE

LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF
A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS
THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. "

Lastly... poleward means North... remember that.

Water Vapor shows that the blocking ridge to the north is being erased by her moisture coming up on the left side ... hmmmnn

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/AOI0/latest_wv_loop.gif

Will see... Night..