Emily Stationary South of Haiti.... Now What?

This has been the slowest moving storm that I can remember in a long time. Every time I look, it looks like she barely moved. Compare the pics I have been posting and you'll see what I mean.

Watches are up for everywhere but South Florida. Easy money would be on a watch being posted later today for parts of South Florida. Probability wise, by the numbers, Ft. Lauderdale to Ft. Pierce has the highest chances of getting tropical storm force winds but they could post a watch for the whole area of South Florida.

At 8 AM Emily is stationary, which messes up the forecast even more so as she was not forecast to stall again. How can you trust a forecast when it isn't playing out. The forecast was for her to begin to turn towards the wnw or nw. Mind you, she pretty much has been stationary or moving very, very, v e r y, tediously s l o w l y. Their 4 mph forward speed was an average forward speed movement.



An upper level low to her west or wnw may be forming and if it does that will give a tug on the slow moving lady. Staying South of Haiti, she seems unaffected by the system far to her northwest that should have grabbed her. So, now what?

Everyone keeps asking me...well everyone who cares. Few people in Miami give a rats ass about a weak, tropical storm down, south of Haiti. They do care about the rain that it's dumping on Haiti, because they have a lot of friends and family there trying to eek out a survival after the tornado. They DO care about friends and family in Cuba, which is next on it's bucket list.

The Models show a trend towards hitting South Florida directly, a trend that the NHC will have problems ignoring much longer. When I say "ignore" I don't mean they are "ignoring it" they are putting off dealing with it, because Emily is barely moving and hasn't shown an indication if she will take a turn to the NW and so they have the time to safely ignore it. And, after all it is only a weak tropical storm. IF... after this sitting a while down there, she intensifies which storms are want to do after a stall... people will pay more attention to her if she strengthens. Strengthening would be hard to do with Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic sitting on her back.

So, let's deal with what is and not Fantasy Storm Tracking.

1. There is a doorway aka a "weakness in the ridge" that would allow Emily to move north through the Bahamas or even over Bimini and slide just past the beautiful beaches of Miami and Palm Beach and parallel the coast and then turn out to sea like so many tropical systems do.

2. At some point, that door slams shut and she won't be able to avoid a landfall somewhere along the East Coast... if she moves tooooo slow.

3. Models will change as she changes.

4. Timing is everything in life as it is in the tropics. Do it now, or you lose the opportunity.

5. She has a jaded past of not being able to pull it together and maintain strengthening, will that continue?

6. If she gets north of Hispaniola and Cuba she CAN and WILL intensify into a Hurricane quickly as the water is hot and that region is a hurricane converter where storms often do intensify and sometimes stall.

7. She could continue along the south coast of Cuba, cross Cuba and slowly feel the pull north through the Straits of Florida into Florida Bay and the Gulf of Mexico looking for a city on the SW or West Coast of Florida to call her own. I mean if she gets that far west, why not.

8. She doesn't look like she is dying. I thought she would bite the bullet yesterday, nope she didn't. I think she's a keeper.

9. Storms that manage to stay alive despite ongoing problems and negative conditions tend to be a pissant, pain in the ass later on down the road somewhere. It's the ones that could have fallen apart, but didn't that you have to worry on.

10. Miami is watching, not worrying, playfully watching for now but for now the timing is off and again timing is everything. So, do we worry about a weak tropical storm down south of Cuba barely moving and edging west slowly or do we go to work or to the beach or where ever we need to go?

As for me, the guys are back from morning services at Temple and I'm going to take a cup of coffee and go out and sit by the pool and think a bit or not think a bit. Relax and let Emily do her thing, after all she took a break...why can't i?

Besos Bobbi
Ps... when I asked several storm chasers the other day about Emily, they shrugged and when pushed said they didn't see any reason she couldn't just go west towards the Yucatan (which some short term models imply) and well, so far..she hasn't done otherwise. There is an Upper Level Low there slowly forming or just a bit hidden. I imagine that could pull at her just as much as low pressure to her north. Who knows? Emily knows...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?109
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=05